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Post by gravitykillz on Nov 29, 2018 17:58:03 GMT
Was just wondering if anyone thinks it is a good idea to liquidate all p2p holdings in the event of a no deal due to the catastrophic effects it will have on the UK economy ? Or not ? I mean interest rates will go up anyways with more secure Banks and Building Societies.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Nov 29, 2018 18:00:17 GMT
Was just wondering if anyone thinks it is a good idea to liquidate all p2p holdings in the event of a no deal due to the catastrophic effects it will have on the UK economy ? Or not ? I mean interest rates will go up anyways with more secure Banks and Building Societies. I think that would be a spiffing idea. My concern is that everyone else will think that too and they are unlikely to be matched by an equal and opposite inflow of opportunists, especially as the majority of platforms don't allow discounted sales.
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Post by gravitykillz on Nov 29, 2018 18:04:55 GMT
Love lending works but I am worried about the effects of a no deal brexit and the impact it would have on p2p lenders.
Do you think i am over reacting ? Or do you think it would be wiser to liquidate all p2p lending in the event of a no deal ?
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Nov 29, 2018 18:09:27 GMT
Love lending works but I am worried about the effects of a no deal brexit and the impact it would have on p2p lenders. Do you think i am over reacting ? Or do you think it would be wiser to liquidate all p2p lending in the event of a no deal ? No you are probably not overreacting. Yes it would be wiser to if that were possible. It may not be possible.
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mary
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Post by mary on Nov 29, 2018 19:25:52 GMT
I’ve been withdrawing with varying speed from most platforms due to increased risks.
I’m out of all property (defaults excepted), and stopped reinvestments in SMEs (Assetz excepted as highly diversified via GBBA2) and withdrawing from RS as rates are now too low.
However, as a counter I’m increasing non GPB investments as, in the event of a catastrophic Brexit the £ will plummet, thereby increasing the value of my foreign currency denominated assets. If things go better than expected, then there is a small downside risk for these investments, but given the current climate that’s ok for me.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Nov 29, 2018 19:29:36 GMT
I’ve been withdrawing with varying speed from most platforms due to increased risks. I’m out of all property (defaults excepted), and stopped reinvestments in SMEs (Assetz excepted as highly diversified via GBBA2) and withdrawing from RS as rates are now too low. However, as a counter I’m increasing non GPB investments as, in the event of a catastrophic Brexit the £ will plummet, thereby increasing the value of my foreign currency denominated assets. If things go better than expected, then there is a small downside risk for these investments, but given the current climate that’s ok for me. Can I ask what sort of foreign currency assets you are investing in? Equities, P2P, or something else?
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mary
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Post by mary on Nov 29, 2018 19:40:41 GMT
Can I ask what sort of foreign currency assets you are investing in? Equities, P2P, or something else? Via P2P investments trusts - RDL and VSL. RDL is in close down mode due to a bad sub investment, so probably not one to get into now. VSL returns ~10% at present and is at a discount to assets, which are ~80% in USD. There’s also P2P and HONY, P2P returns far less and HONY is at a 10% premium to assets, so I avoid. As always, this is not investment advice, merely what I like at present.
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Post by oppsididitagain on Nov 29, 2018 20:38:50 GMT
Without turning this into a BREXIt Debate - who is right or wrong etc.. and keeping it purely financial based. I stopped investing in property backed P2P back in Sept. I still have exposure and slightly concerned but I don't think you will see much of a problem (If any) until June19. Anyone trying to refinance from Feb next year, it will be interesting to see what rates they will have to pay. Personal lending should be ok for a year or so as most P2P deals have their rates fixed now for the life of the loan, Im not sure about the catastrophic effects you keep reading about in all the papers. I remember the same thing happening because we didn't join the EURO. That worked itself out. However, Personally I think the economy will have a good and long over due shake up. There will be winners and losers. The £ will devalue, however that is good for exports. The FTSE will probably go lower, however with a lower £ its much cheaper for foreign investors to buy Uk stocks. Its will also be more expensive for us to buy German cars like so many do, so will that mean better buy British or somewhere outside of Europe??? Inflation will probably rise, so does the BOE put rates up to counteract this, thus propping up the £ and making the currency stronger ?? Will banks put savings rates up  Will wages rise, everyone has been moaning about that !! Property will probably come down, but lets be honest, UK houses in most parts of the country are way overvalued, and everyone has been moaning about it for years so this will give a lot of people the opportunity to upsize and also help FTB get on the ladder. Yes the property speculators will get burnt, but hopefully more people will be able to buy rather than rent. You could argue the P2P industry has fuelled a lot of the property rise as banks don't lend anymore ? So winners and losers IMHO. I think a bubble has been building for the last 18months and this could be the straw that breaks the donkeys back.. and I think all areas of investing will feel the effect somehow. Cash is King at the moment. |
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Nov 29, 2018 20:47:27 GMT
Personal lending should be ok for a year or so as most P2P deals have their rates fixed now for the life of the loan, Really? You don't think that a massive recession and unemployment rising to circa 7.5% would impact personal P2P lending?
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Nov 29, 2018 20:49:13 GMT
Can I ask what sort of foreign currency assets you are investing in? Equities, P2P, or something else? Via P2P investments trusts - RDL and VSL. RDL is in close down mode due to a bad sub investment, so probably not one to get into now. VSL returns ~10% at present and is at a discount to assets, which are ~80% in USD. There’s also P2P and HONY, P2P returns far less and HONY is at a 10% premium to assets, so I avoid. As always, this is not investment advice, merely what I like at present. Thanks, I'll have a look at them. As an aside, god I miss the old Google Finance, they've totally destroyed it with this new version.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Nov 29, 2018 22:15:39 GMT
Without turning this into a BREXIt Debate - who is right or wrong etc.. and keeping it purely financial based. I stopped investing in property backed P2P back in Sept. I still have exposure and slightly concerned but I don't think you will see much of a problem (If any) until June19. Anyone trying to refinance from Feb next year, it will be interesting to see what rates they will have to pay. Personal lending should be ok for a year or so as most P2P deals have their rates fixed now for the life of the loan, Im not sure about the catastrophic effects you keep reading about in all the papers. I remember the same thing happening because we didn't join the EURO. That worked itself out. However, Personally I think the economy will have a good and long over due shake up. There will be winners and losers. The £ will devalue, however that is good for exports. The FTSE will probably go lower, however with a lower £ its much cheaper for foreign investors to buy Uk stocks. Its will also be more expensive for us to buy German cars like so many do, so will that mean better buy British or somewhere outside of Europe??? Inflation will probably rise, so does the BOE put rates up to counteract this, thus propping up the £ and making the currency stronger ?? Will banks put savings rates up Will wages rise, everyone has been moaning about that !! Property will probably come down, but lets be honest, UK houses in most parts of the country are way overvalued, and everyone has been moaning about it for years so this will give a lot of people the opportunity to upsize and also help FTB get on the ladder. Yes the property speculators will get burnt, but hopefully more people will be able to buy rather than rent. You could argue the P2P industry has fuelled a lot of the property rise as banks don't lend anymore ? So winners and losers IMHO. I think a bubble has been building for the last 18months and this could be the straw that breaks the donkeys back.. and I think all areas of investing will feel the effect somehow. Cash is King at the moment. How can cash be king when you are welcoming another burst of inflation from a further devalued pound? There are much better ways to improve the economy and fix the problems you identify (such as overvalued housing and insufficient exports) without deliberately making ourselves poorer. But if we do go through with it, we're a bit stuffed as to where to invest in the UK; I'd suggest making sure it's mainly denominated in foreign currency and invested in other economies. Kind of like what Rees-Mogg, Redwood and others have done.
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Post by oppsididitagain on Nov 30, 2018 0:57:48 GMT
Personal lending should be ok for a year or so as most P2P deals have their rates fixed now for the life of the loan, Really? You don't think that a massive recession and unemployment rising to circa 7.5% would impact personal P2P lending? As I said winners and loser - I don't think there will be a massive recession I don't think there will be 7.5% unemployment, ( If you measured employment on UK people.) This is the problem with a free movement of people.. Things get disstorted , you get bubble of prosperity and that destroys poor communities. People run to the big city which grows faster than it can cope. There certainly will be a slowdown in growth, but I don't think thats a bad thing - I think the world is overpopulated and we have relied too much on the mindset of consumerism , greed is good etc. We don't need to grow anymore , however this is how prosperity is measured. we need to develop other places in the world. Spread the growth rather than suck it all to one place .. Surely the EU was made on the basis of spreading the wealth , but in fact its just drawn people to the success. I guess I'm thinking and presuming that some of the people being unemployed would leave the UK, and thus make way for other people to be employed. Hence why I say we need a proper shake up.. But if we do go through with it, we're a bit stuffed as to where to invest in the UK; This is why I say all ares of investing will be affected .. Cash is king when the BOE has to raise rates, also it will give you opportunity to invest in things when others are selling... Again just my opinion..
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Nov 30, 2018 2:07:53 GMT
Really? You don't think that a massive recession and unemployment rising to circa 7.5% would impact personal P2P lending? As I said winners and loser - I don't think there will be a massive recession I don't think there will be 7.5% unemployment, ( If you measured employment on UK people.) This is the problem with a free movement of people.. Things get disstorted , you get bubble of prosperity and that destroys poor communities. People run to the big city which grows faster than it can cope. There certainly will be a slowdown in growth, but I don't think thats a bad thing - I think the world is overpopulated and we have relied too much on the mindset of consumerism , greed is good etc. We don't need to grow anymore , however this is how prosperity is measured. we need to develop other places in the world. Spread the growth rather than suck it all to one place .. Surely the EU was made on the basis of spreading the wealth , but in fact its just drawn people to the success. I guess I'm thinking and presuming that some of the people being unemployed would leave the UK, and thus make way for other people to be employed. Hence why I say we need a proper shake up.. But if we do go through with it, we're a bit stuffed as to where to invest in the UK; This is why I say all ares of investing will be affected .. Cash is king when the BOE has to raise rates, also it will give you opportunity to invest in things when others are selling... Again just my opinion.. Opps, I think you're straying rather far from your intent to talk solely about the impact to P2P returns here. This rather sounds like a thinly veiled reheating of Nigel Farage pub talk to be honest. You're entitled to your views, but when it comes to personal lending let me just point out that that sector includes all people who reside within the UK. Some of those people may not have been born in the UK. Therefore, some of those non-"UK people" you talk of who might be made unemployed and leave the UK might default on their personal loans. There may also then be further "UK people" , as you charmingly put it, who will also lose their jobs too and not be so keen to move abroad to find one. Indeed, in the event of No Deal they wouldn't even likely be allowed to do that even if they wanted to - Freedom of Movement works both ways. To be honest, I'm a little confused by the inconsistencies in what you are saying. You don't feel that personal lending will be impacted, you don't think there will be significant unemployment, you don't believe there will be much of a recession (winners/losers etc) and yet "all areas of investing will be impacted" in the UK. So, which is it?
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Post by oppsididitagain on Nov 30, 2018 8:18:06 GMT
I was mearly trying to point out that whatever happens in the next few months, I don't think its going to be this massive recession and unemployment of 7.5% that someone quoted solely due to BREXIT.
I think we have had low interest rates for too long and most of the world has over stretched itself in the last few years - thats another topic.
Bubbles have formed in various asset classes so when you change something , of course its going to have an effect. P2P will suffer but for more than just BREXIT reasons. There will be a shake up in the financial system, and then hopefully slowly we get back to normality.
The key is with the housing market I think, its over priced and this will cause issues. thats the part of P2P that worries me the most in the short term, the personal lending P2P I think might happen in 12/18months time
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Post by propman on Nov 30, 2018 9:52:29 GMT
It all depends upon how disorderly the Brexit is. So much oif our debts are secured on property that a significant reduction in property values across the board would lead to a banking crisis unless employment remains strong enough for people to continue paying their mortgages. Commercial property will crash unless demand remains strong (unlikely) and interest rates remain low (possible to artificially support the economy, but only if other issues are happenning). property developers still get bank loans secured on the sale proceeds of the developments, so no sales means defaults and security will be inadequate for most in a fire sale. RS have increased exposure to property and are opaque as to what (commercial / retail development / asset backed business loans / First or subsequent charges etc. and valuations based on expected development values inflated to expected sale date or termination of loan?).
I think the reason so much property has gone P2P is:
1) many smaller developers without the strong banking support of large players 2) no requirement to take out fixed interest swaps that many were stung by in past. So if rates drop, they can refinance but they still have fixed rates if rates rise.
JMHO
- PM
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Will wages rise, everyone has been moaning about that !! Property will probably come down, but lets be honest, UK houses in most parts of the country are way overvalued, and everyone has been moaning about it for years so this will give a lot of people the opportunity to upsize and also help FTB get on the ladder. Yes the property speculators will get burnt, but hopefully more people will be able to buy rather than rent.