GeorgeT
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Post by GeorgeT on Dec 21, 2018 16:31:51 GMT
I wouldn't give thought to it.
I said to several people right after the referendum that Brexit would never happen. I stand by that view.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Dec 21, 2018 16:35:52 GMT
I wouldn't give thought to it.
I said to several people right after the referendum that Brexit would never happen. I stand by that view.
That’s like standing with your fingers in your ears singing “Lalala I cant hear you”.
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aju
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Post by aju on Dec 21, 2018 16:40:44 GMT
I wouldn't give thought to it.
I said to several people right after the referendum that Brexit would never happen. I stand by that view.
That’s like standing with your fingers in your ears singing “Lalala I cant hear you”. Hmmm!, last few days seems to suggest George could be right!. The posh boys and girls would probably struggle to organise a PU in a brewery and as for all the filibustering over "He said what?", "Oh yes he did", "Oh no he didn't" ... one could almost be fooled into understanding why Gatwick was shut for over 24hrs etc etc etc etc ..... We're doomed Mr mainwaring, we're doomed"
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Post by mrclondon on Dec 21, 2018 17:00:46 GMT
GeorgeT - there will be movement in the markets irrespective of the outcome from this point. Even if there was a 2nd referendum which remain won by 67%:33% there will be movement because that scenario is not priced into the market. (Such a scenario would likely mean sterling jumping to $1.60+ and a lot of SME manufacturing businesses struggling financially).
Current exchange rate pricing is indicative of something far closer to leaving the SM+CU than a EEA+CU brino for example.
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Post by captainconfident on Dec 21, 2018 18:01:56 GMT
I think it would be wise to factor in at worst, an economic catastrophe lasting decades, if the UK accidentally leaves without agreement and on simple WTO terms only, i.e. being in the weakest possible position from which to start the laborious process of negotiating trade deals with third countries and with the EU. This paper is useful in understanding the various outcomes, and if you don't have time, skip to part 6, 'Impact Assessment'. brexitfactbase.com/pdfs/UKTradeWTO.pdf |
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littleoldlady
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Post by littleoldlady on Dec 21, 2018 18:34:14 GMT
I think it would be wise to factor in at worst, an economic catastrophe lasting decades, if the UK accidentally leaves without agreement and on simple WTO terms only, i.e. being in the weakest possible position from which to start the laborious process of negotiating trade deals with third countries and with the EU. This paper is useful in understanding the various outcomes, and if you don't have time, skip to part 6, 'Impact Assessment'. brexitfactbase.com/pdfs/UKTradeWTO.pdfProject Fear is alive and well. I suppose these figures were produced by the same people that have got everything wrong so far.
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Post by mrclondon on Dec 21, 2018 18:47:43 GMT
I think it would be wise to factor in at worst, an economic catastrophe lasting decades, if the UK accidentally leaves without agreement and on simple WTO terms only, i.e. being in the weakest possible position from which to start the laborious process of negotiating trade deals with third countries and with the EU. This paper is useful in understanding the various outcomes, and if you don't have time, skip to part 6, 'Impact Assessment'. brexitfactbase.com/pdfs/UKTradeWTO.pdfFrom page 63 (my bold)
"Opportunities
Are there trade opportunities and benefits to counter the risks and costs of Brexit? The Government has not published an ‘opportunity audit’ to identify which UK- based industries would benefit from Brexit. Businesses are not, in general, demanding access to untapped global trading opportunities or freedom from regulatory constraints.
Unforeseen trade opportunities would arise from Brexit for some UK-based businesses who would innovate and compete to capture them. These unspecified opportunities would need to be balanced against the inevitable loss of future opportunities from full EU and Single Market membership, and the competitive and global advantages that it brings to the UK."
Which is what the owners of various (small) manufacturing businesses I know find so frustrating - nobody wants to listen to their views. A lot of SME's do minimal trade with the EU, and find a regime that is so focussed on the needs of multi-national corporations does not suit their own businesses.
Sorry, it is the short-sightedness of the "establishment" that led to a leave majority, and nothing appears to have been learnt since. If remainers really do want to be sure of winning any 2nd referendum, they need be prepared to offer an unbiased analysis, and not simply ignore those for whom leave offers tangible benefit.
Any paper on WTO trade is by definition short termism as within a few years free trade agreements will be established with most if not all the UK's main trading partners. Any hits to the economy of trading on WTO terms for period of 2 to 3 years needs to be compared with an analysis of the benefits (or not) of independent free trade agreements over say 30 years compared to being in the CU and covered by EU negotiated trade deals. I've said before, UK exporters to the US worry about an EU-US trade war that could damage UK exporters quite severely.
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Post by captainconfident on Dec 21, 2018 19:37:28 GMT
I think it would be wise to factor in at worst, an economic catastrophe lasting decades, if the UK accidentally leaves without agreement and on simple WTO terms only, i.e. being in the weakest possible position from which to start the laborious process of negotiating trade deals with third countries and with the EU. This paper is useful in understanding the various outcomes, and if you don't have time, skip to part 6, 'Impact Assessment'. brexitfactbase.com/pdfs/UKTradeWTO.pdfProject Fear is alive and well. I suppose these figures were produced by the same people that have got everything wrong so far. This reply and two of the likes that followed it came within ten minutes of me posting, so congratulations on the speed at which you can read. As you can see, after actually looking at the paper, mrc is quickly able to pick out some lines he likes to support his leave outcome convictions. It seems to me a lot of opinions around Brexit are simply faith based. This thread is about future P2P strategies, and we will all cut our cloth based on our studies or convictions. So good luck! We are going to find out the truth very soon.
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aju
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Post by aju on Dec 21, 2018 19:59:11 GMT
Project Fear is alive and well. I suppose these figures were produced by the same people that have got everything wrong so far. This reply and two of the likes that followed it came within ten minutes of me posting, so congratulations on the speed at which you can read. As you can see, after actually looking at the paper, mrc is quickly able to pick out some lines he likes to support his leave outcome convictions. It seems to me a lot of opinions around Brexit are simply faith based. This thread is about future P2P strategies, and we will all cut our cloth based on our studies or convictions. So good luck! We are going to find out the truth very soon.Are you sure we are going to find out real soon, they've all gone home for christmas and its taken them nearly 2 years to basically get nowhere. PS I liked the thread comments not necessarily the document ... just a thought!
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Dec 21, 2018 20:22:19 GMT
I think it would be wise to factor in at worst, an economic catastrophe lasting decades, if the UK accidentally leaves without agreement and on simple WTO terms only, i.e. being in the weakest possible position from which to start the laborious process of negotiating trade deals with third countries and with the EU. This paper is useful in understanding the various outcomes, and if you don't have time, skip to part 6, 'Impact Assessment'. brexitfactbase.com/pdfs/UKTradeWTO.pdfIt is rarely wise to make decisions based on a worse possible scenario. In general things chug along and progress regardless of our political leaders attempts to sabotage things. Personally I’d prefer to stay in Europe as is but I’m not anxious about the outcome of deal or no deal.
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Post by captainconfident on Dec 21, 2018 20:38:47 GMT
I think it would be wise to factor in at worst, an economic catastrophe lasting decades, if the UK accidentally leaves without agreement and on simple WTO terms only, i.e. being in the weakest possible position from which to start the laborious process of negotiating trade deals with third countries and with the EU. This paper is useful in understanding the various outcomes, and if you don't have time, skip to part 6, 'Impact Assessment'. brexitfactbase.com/pdfs/UKTradeWTO.pdfIt is rarely wise to make decisions based on a worse possible scenario. In general things chug along and progress regardless of our political leaders attempts to sabotage things. Personally I’d prefer to stay in Europe as is but I’m not anxious about the outcome of deal or no deal. I did say "factor in". But the problem for politicians advocating Brexit is that they brightly say "we can trade on WTO terms" and also that we need to make trade agreements as soon as possible because actually, trading on basic WTO terms is a terrible position to be in, as outlined in the paper I linked to. The fact is, these trade agreements are going to take years, with the UK being in the desperate situation and the other party being able to force the terms they want. Including on immigration. It is during this period that, as a net importer with a £pound which will sink through the floor if we leave the EU at all, we will have huge inflation. So I would suggest 'factoring in' the possibility that leaving will be a rocky ride.
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locutus
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Post by locutus on Dec 21, 2018 23:39:05 GMT
I thought this was a joke at first. Who on earth would want to watch a movie about Brexit.  I couldn't watch the whole trailer but what I saw hardly looks impartial. |
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littleoldlady
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Post by littleoldlady on Dec 22, 2018 7:43:19 GMT
Project Fear is alive and well. I suppose these figures were produced by the same people that have got everything wrong so far. That's something we can agree on. But you, or rather the author, describes his faith backed opinions as facts. Most Brexit supporters regard Brexit as providing opportunities not certainties.
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kaya
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Post by kaya on Dec 22, 2018 9:35:15 GMT
It is not another brexit referendum we need. We need a referendum to vote on ridding us of all of the fear mongering politicians who feed us constant theater, a soap opera for the masses to confuse and confound. We can then vote to put the government into administration, and appoint BDO to sort it all out. I hear they are very good.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Dec 22, 2018 10:20:38 GMT
It is not another brexit referendum we need.
MP's only agreed to the first referendum because they thought there was no way that the people would vote leave, and a significant number of them have spent the last 18 months trying to stop it from happening.
If MP's can't agree on what form of Brexit we should have, maybe we could have another referendum with just various leave options on the ballot paper. Then the people could decide.
It would be very brave of either of the main political parties to support a process which resulted in us staying. They would surely feel the wrath of the 17m that voted to leave.
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