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Post by Ace on Aug 4, 2023 21:21:40 GMT
40C is not enough to cause houses to catch fire ! otherwise it would be a regular occurrence in Southern Europe, Australia, Africa, Texas etc etc even places like Siberia I would suggest it is more likely that something in the house concentrated light and that caused a hot spot, much as a magnifying glass would. This then ignited. Mythbusters did an experiment with mirrors etc and even reflecting the sun using in excess of 50 mirrors they got the surface temperature to over 150 degrees but no fire. Or forests for that matter... greek media having a good old laugh at the BBC reporting on the fires in greece... meanwhile.. the greek authorities are looking for the arsonist's. No-one is claiming that global warming is causing trees to spontaneously combust. Just that man-made global warming is creating conditions that make fires that do start more likely to get out of control and be more destructive. Top of a quick Google on the subject gives " Research shows that changes in climate create warmer, drier conditions, leading to longer and more active fire seasons. Increases in temperatures and the thirst of the atmosphere due to human--caused climate change have increased aridity of forest fuels during the fire season."
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Post by martin44 on Aug 6, 2023 20:27:07 GMT
Or forests for that matter... greek media having a good old laugh at the BBC reporting on the fires in greece... meanwhile.. the greek authorities are looking for the arsonist's. No-one is claiming that global warming is causing trees to spontaneously combust. Just that man-made global warming is creating conditions that make fires that do start more likely to get out of control and be more destructive. Top of a quick Google on the subject gives " Research shows that changes in climate create warmer, drier conditions, leading to longer and more active fire seasons. Increases in temperatures and the thirst of the atmosphere due to human--caused climate change have increased aridity of forest fuels during the fire season." tell it to the BBC.
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Post by martin44 on Aug 6, 2023 20:31:42 GMT
Or forests for that matter... greek media having a good old laugh at the BBC reporting on the fires in greece... meanwhile.. the greek authorities are looking for the arsonist's. No-one is claiming that global warming is causing trees to spontaneously combust. Just that man-made global warming is creating conditions that make fires that do start more likely to get out of control and be more destructive. Top of a quick Google on the subject gives "Research shows that changes in climate create warmer, drier conditions, leading to longer and more active fire seasons. Increases in temperatures and the thirst of the atmosphere due to human--caused climate change have increased aridity of forest fuels during the fire season." MEANWHILE THE FORESTRY COMMISSION CUTS JOBS DUE TO LACK OF FUNDS AND THERES NO ONE LEFT TO DEAL WITH FORESTRY MANAGEMENT, NUMPTIES THEN LIGHT SILLY THRO AWAY BARBYS, ARSONISTS LIGHT FUNNY LAUGHABLE MINOR FIRES... BUT NO ONES CLEARED THE BONE DRY BRUSH... BECAUSE OF A LACK OF FUNDS, BUT WE HAVE ENOUGH MONEY FOR A 6M A DAY HOTEL FUND...... SO THE INNEVITABLE HAPPENS. SIMPLE.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Aug 6, 2023 20:47:10 GMT
Or forests for that matter... greek media having a good old laugh at the BBC reporting on the fires in greece... meanwhile.. the greek authorities are looking for the arsonist's. No-one is claiming that global warming is causing trees to spontaneously combust. Just that man-made global warming is creating conditions that make fires that do start more likely to get out of control and be more destructive. Top of a quick Google on the subject gives " Research shows that changes in climate create warmer, drier conditions, leading to longer and more active fire seasons. Increases in temperatures and the thirst of the atmosphere due to human--caused climate change have increased aridity of forest fuels during the fire season." Everyone says it so it must be true. Maybe that's why I read maths instead of science....
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Post by Ace on Aug 6, 2023 21:42:23 GMT
No-one is claiming that global warming is causing trees to spontaneously combust. Just that man-made global warming is creating conditions that make fires that do start more likely to get out of control and be more destructive. Top of a quick Google on the subject gives " Research shows that changes in climate create warmer, drier conditions, leading to longer and more active fire seasons. Increases in temperatures and the thirst of the atmosphere due to human--caused climate change have increased aridity of forest fuels during the fire season." tell it to the BBC. I will if you can show me where the BBC have said that global warming causes trees to self combust.
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Post by Ace on Aug 6, 2023 21:54:46 GMT
No-one is claiming that global warming is causing trees to spontaneously combust. Just that man-made global warming is creating conditions that make fires that do start more likely to get out of control and be more destructive. Top of a quick Google on the subject gives " Research shows that changes in climate create warmer, drier conditions, leading to longer and more active fire seasons. Increases in temperatures and the thirst of the atmosphere due to human--caused climate change have increased aridity of forest fuels during the fire season." Everyone says it so it must be true. Maybe that's why I read maths instead of science.... No, it isn't true "because" everyone says so. The overwhelming scientific evidence, agreed by the overwhelming number of respected scientists, shows that the main cause of global warming is man-made. It would be crazy to believe that the few fruit-loops still in the climate change denier camp are correct just because they say they are.
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Post by Ace on Aug 6, 2023 22:00:10 GMT
No-one is claiming that global warming is causing trees to spontaneously combust. Just that man-made global warming is creating conditions that make fires that do start more likely to get out of control and be more destructive. Top of a quick Google on the subject gives "Research shows that changes in climate create warmer, drier conditions, leading to longer and more active fire seasons. Increases in temperatures and the thirst of the atmosphere due to human--caused climate change have increased aridity of forest fuels during the fire season." MEANWHILE THE FORESTRY COMMISSION CUTS JOBS DUE TO LACK OF FUNDS AND THERES NO ONE LEFT TO DEAL WITH FORESTRY MANAGEMENT, NUMPTIES THEN LIGHT SILLY THRO AWAY BARBYS, ARSONISTS LIGHT FUNNY LAUGHABLE MINOR FIRES... BUT NO ONES CLEARED THE BONE DRY BRUSH... BECAUSE OF A LACK OF FUNDS, BUT WE HAVE ENOUGH MONEY FOR A 6M A DAY HOTEL FUND...... SO THE INNEVITABLE HAPPENS. SIMPLE. So, are you now saying that you accept the sentence you've highlighted in bold, but you don't like the decisions that the government have made with regards to spending priorities?
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mogish
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Post by mogish on Aug 7, 2023 10:44:02 GMT
Millions of trees cut down in Scotland to make way for "green energy" projects. Patprick hardie has a lot to answer for. At least we have no forest fires then😣
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Aug 7, 2023 12:35:42 GMT
Everyone says it so it must be true. Maybe that's why I read maths instead of science.... No, it isn't true "because" everyone says so. The overwhelming scientific evidence, agreed by the overwhelming number of respected scientists, shows that the main cause of global warming is man-made. It would be crazy to believe that the few fruit-loops still in the climate change denier camp are correct just because they say they are. It is. If nobody scientifically important said so you wouldn't believe it. Science or at least scientists have been wrong many times before. The problem I have with climate change is that it is a highly charged political problem. There are similarities politically with Covid because both require incredibly far reaching political decisions. Mass house arrest ("lockdown"), huge transport, eneregy and recycling changes etc. That doesn't mean I disagree with it, but I'd much rather scientists stick to their job of being scientists rather than attempting to influence how we should live - that's for us and our proxies (politicians) to decide based upon scientific evidence. Of the two climate change questions (A: is the climate changing in the way it is said? and B: is it caused by negative manmade intervention?) you would think A would be the easiest to prove. Why then is there no site I can go to that provides a nice user interface for anyone to play with the data without having to write their own software. I asked this on here before and got some links but none of them would answer even basic questions. e.g. For a given place and time of year, graph the temperature at that time of day over the past 100 years and give me the basic stats (bounds, mean, variance etc). e.g. Y axis is temperature. X axis are discrete days e.g. 1950 3 March 7pm, 1951 3 March 7pm, 1952.....etc. Allow people to play like that to get a feel for it. There appears to be nothing.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Aug 7, 2023 14:03:20 GMT
No, it isn't true "because" everyone says so. The overwhelming scientific evidence, agreed by the overwhelming number of respected scientists, shows that the main cause of global warming is man-made. It would be crazy to believe that the few fruit-loops still in the climate change denier camp are correct just because they say they are. It is. If nobody scientifically important said so you wouldn't believe it. Science or at least scientists have been wrong many times before. The problem I have with climate change is that it is a highly charged political problem. There are similarities politically with Covid because both require incredibly far reaching political decisions. Mass house arrest ("lockdown"), huge transport, eneregy and recycling changes etc. That doesn't mean I disagree with it, but I'd much rather scientists stick to their job of being scientists rather than attempting to influence how we should live - that's for us and our proxies (politicians) to decide based upon scientific evidence. Of the two climate change questions (A: is the climate changing in the way it is said? and B: is it caused by negative manmade intervention?) you would think A would be the easiest to prove. Why then is there no site I can go to that provides a nice user interface for anyone to play with the data without having to write their own software. I asked this on here before and got some links but none of them would answer even basic questions. e.g. For a given place and time of year, graph the temperature at that time of day over the past 100 years and give me the basic stats (bounds, mean, variance etc). e.g. Y axis is temperature. X axis are discrete days e.g. 1950 3 March 7pm, 1951 3 March 7pm, 1952.....etc. Allow people to play like that to get a feel for it. There appears to be nothing. Not what you want but indicative. Average temperatures from 1900 to date: www.carbonbrief.org/met-office-a-review-of-the-uks-climate-in-2022/#:~:text=The%20UK%20annual%20mean%20temperature,(blue%20dots)%20since%201963. Also from 1660: www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/You can also download data sets from here, to play with. Edit: And there are references you could follow up with possibly more detail.
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eeyore
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Post by eeyore on Aug 7, 2023 14:26:55 GMT
No, it isn't true "because" everyone says so. The overwhelming scientific evidence, agreed by the overwhelming number of respected scientists, shows that the main cause of global warming is man-made. It would be crazy to believe that the few fruit-loops still in the climate change denier camp are correct just because they say they are. It is. If nobody scientifically important said so you wouldn't believe it.
Science or at least scientists have been wrong many times before.
But that's how science progresses! Someone, somewhere thinks that the current scientific concensus about a particular issue is wrong and sets out to prove it's wrong - if successful, science moves on and a new concensus forms until someone else comes along and proves the new theory wrong... The problem I have with climate change is that it is a highly charged political problem. There are similarities politically with Covid because both require incredibly far reaching political decisions. Mass house arrest ("lockdown"), huge transport, eneregy and recycling changes etc. That doesn't mean I disagree with it, but I'd much rather scientists stick to their job of being scientists rather than attempting to influence how we should live - that's for us and our proxies (politicians) to decide based upon scientific evidence.
The problem is that humans (and especially politicians) have a reluctance to change if that change is "uncomfortable". Look at how easy it is to postpone decisions which might result in something unpopular with the population in general, not to mention the insidious lobbying from commercial interests that might be affected. It's rare that any politician makes a decision based upon scientific evidence! The theory of human activity affecting global climate has been debated for decades, with warnings from the scientists of the growing body of evidence to prove the theory and the catastrophic impact if human behaviour is left uncontrolled. After decades to trying to warn of the dangers and being ignored, why would you be surprised if scientists become more vocal and refuse to "stick to their job of being scientists rather than attempting to influence how we should live"? Of the two climate change questions (A: is the climate changing in the way it is said? and B: is it caused by negative manmade intervention?) you would think A would be the easiest to prove. Why then is there no site I can go to that provides a nice user interface for anyone to play with the data without having to write their own software. I asked this on here before and got some links but none of them would answer even basic questions. e.g. For a given place and time of year, graph the temperature at that time of day over the past 100 years and give me the basic stats (bounds, mean, variance etc). e.g. Y axis is temperature. X axis are discrete days e.g. 1950 3 March 7pm, 1951 3 March 7pm, 1952.....etc. Allow people to play like that to get a feel for it.
There appears to be nothing.Err - NOAA and the Met Office have vast amounts of data monitoring environmental variables. In the 1980s, my partner worked for the International Energy Agency on a project for sulphur dioxide transport in the atmosphere so I'm well aware of the data - I have a collection of meteorological records for recording stations in the UK going back to the 19th Century which is exactly what you're asking for. (I used them for something much more mundane - to select the best retirement location!) But studying the raw meteorological records won't be of much help - climate change is too subtle because the trends are overwhelmed by "weather" - that's the day-by-day, hour-by-hour effects of an extremely complex atmosphere. Identifying climate changes within the variability of the weather data demands an immense research effort with vast amounts of data and computational resources. And then there's the reliability of the data over time - you mentioned 100 years: it was an American colleague who brought me abruptly to a halt with his comment that any recording station cannot be relied upon to be consistent over this length of time simply because the surroundings of the recording equipment will have changed - stations that were originally in a small town, he used the example of Phoenix Arizona, are now in the centre of a giant metropolis with their own unique climate. I'd guess that only the data from offshore lighthouses would give a consistent record across decades. But don't let me dissuade you from looking - try the Met Office's Hadley Centre.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Aug 7, 2023 14:46:43 GMT
Surprised to get some good quality responses. Don't have time now to do eeyore's post justice but I should say whilst I am no expert I do have considerable experience in "big data" - i.e. using ML and other techniques to spot trends in data. The more data is processed by those vast resources you mentioned the harder it is to be confident of their outcome.
Its only around 100 years or so that we have substantially industrialised and also that is the number we are likely to have data for.
Look, I'm not saying this is all a load of nonsense and there is no such thing nor it wasn't caused or substantially accelerated by human activity. I suppose what I resent is being labelled a "Denier" or similar if I retain my own view. I particularly resent people causing chaos who would no doubt scream in my face if I didn't agree there was an "emergency" more important than the emergency of getting a heart attack victim to hospital for example.
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Post by mostlywrong on Aug 7, 2023 17:52:35 GMT
I cannot see how we can persuade Homo Sapiens that an invisible gas produced by human activities is having a detrimental effect on the planet, and we should modify our behaviour, when large numbers of the species consider it perfectly acceptable to throw their visible rubbish out of the car window/house/flat/business.
Combine that with government at all levels shrinking away from the basic business of dealing with the visible waste produced by the population, and I cannot see a solution.
Unhappy.
MW
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keitha
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Post by keitha on Aug 7, 2023 18:52:31 GMT
yesterday on the way to see my OH and in a layby was a complete double divan bed, now where it was dumped is pretty much 4 miles North or 4 Miles South to a council recycling centre, to get it there it had to have been in a car or a van so why not take it to the tip. perhaps one answer the Local council does nor permit sign written vans on site without payment for trade waste.
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keitha
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Post by keitha on Aug 7, 2023 18:55:07 GMT
Millions of trees cut down in Scotland to make way for "green energy" projects. Patprick hardie has a lot to answer for. At least we have no forest fires then😣 my information is most were scrubby trees or non natives and large numbers of native trees will be planted to replace them, but yes it does seem counter intuitive to chop down trees for green projects
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