bernythedolt
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Post by bernythedolt on Jan 29, 2020 12:07:04 GMT
bernythedolt What's your source for "100 years ago, Spanish Flu killed 1/6th of all mankind"? My apologies, quoting from memory of what my grandmother told me as a lad...no excuse. I think that was closer to the proportion infected rather than killed.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Jan 29, 2020 13:32:28 GMT
Possible that the UK has seen its first case of Coronavirus, luckily not fatal. BirminghamLive quotes Drew Bennett: "I had been in Wuhan on holiday over Christmas and came back to Harborne on December 31. Once I got back I was really ill with, what I thought, was a bad case of the flu. At that stage coronavirus hadn't really been mentioned so I thought nothing of it. However, when I went to the GP on Monday and he asked as a precaution if I had been to China, he seemed really concerned. I was sent home and before I knew it, ambulances and people in hazmat suits had turned up. I'm now in isolation at the QE and just waiting to get my blood test results."
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Jan 29, 2020 15:05:54 GMT
One thing I don't understand is why do these pandemics eventually peter out? I mean some of the diseases are pretty deadly for most infected such as bubonic plague and even ebola (I think). Without any real form of treatment what keeps them in check? Why don't they just keep going until 90% or more of us are wiped out?
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travolta
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Post by travolta on Jan 29, 2020 17:24:49 GMT
I get the impression that its just the sufferers with preexisting conditions that get wiped out. Why do they all seem to originate in China? Is it people living close to animals/poultry? If so,why not India or other similar? Is it acold climate thing?
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KoR_Wraith
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Post by KoR_Wraith on Jan 29, 2020 17:33:50 GMT
I get the impression that its just the sufferers with preexisting conditions that get wiped out. Why do they all seem to originate in China? Is it people living close to animals/poultry? If so,why not India or other similar? Is it acold climate thing? From Google: "China sees a lot of unsafe animal-human interaction, which is behind the spread of most of these zoonotic viruses, which transmit from animals to humans. And, unlike India, the animal markets (wet markets) have live animals, which are kept in closed space and culled for fresh meat." I can only imagine this most recent scare will lead to changes in how these markets operate.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Jan 29, 2020 17:48:34 GMT
I get the impression that its just the sufferers with preexisting conditions that get wiped out. Why do they all seem to originate in China? Is it people living close to animals/poultry? If so,why not India or other similar? Is it acold climate thing? From Google: "China sees a lot of unsafe animal-human interaction, which is behind the spread of most of these zoonotic viruses, which transmit from animals to humans. And, unlike India, the animal markets (wet markets) have live animals, which are kept in closed space and culled for fresh meat." I can only imagine this most recent scare will lead to changes in how these markets operate. Given that SARS also originated in China, I doubt that.
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Mike
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Post by Mike on Jan 29, 2020 20:49:24 GMT
I get the impression that its just the sufferers with preexisting conditions that get wiped out. Why do they all seem to originate in China? Is it people living close to animals/poultry? If so,why not India or other similar? Is it acold climate thing? Probably partly because anyone who says there might be a problem gets immediately banged up for "spreading rumours" in the usual Chinese way (ie the local justice system mantra of "if we say you are guilty then you are guilty") Since it was already widely known even the china press has to admit that maybe that wasn't so clever with hindsight www.globaltimes.cn/content/1177960.shtmlBut guys it's all cool now we have cheap 5G to look forward to (when this post may or may not become invisible)
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Godanubis
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Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
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Post by Godanubis on Jan 29, 2020 23:47:59 GMT
As a scientist for over 40 I have seen the rise of infection that can kill thousands and can’t be cured initially.
I soon learned that epidemiology is a very complicated field. Diseases can spread based on blood group. The plague affected people of different blood groups giving us the modern ratios. Asians have different ratios to those of western origins and this may affect disease aetiology.
As for why animal human interaction is not the same in India as China. India has more taboos on animal consumption where exotic animal consumption is more acceptable in Chinese culture.
Sars is a difficult comparative virus although 90% similar sars is only infectious in post symptomatic phase this virus appears from latest news to be infectious in pre symptomatic phase. This is ultimately far more dangerous.
It may have a lower % death rate but if it ends up with a higher infection rate that would result in a far worse overall outcome.
With a relatively long incubation period it make control considerably more difficult.
As with the Hep C blood/ Factor VIII scandal difficult decisions might need to be made.
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Post by wildlife2 on Jan 30, 2020 2:15:53 GMT
It must be just natures way of reducing the population, but so far bats, snakes and sea creatures (mermaids?) have all been blamed for starting it.
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scc
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Post by scc on Jan 30, 2020 8:08:34 GMT
One thing I don't understand is why do these pandemics eventually peter out? I mean some of the diseases are pretty deadly for most infected such as bubonic plague and even ebola (I think). Without any real form of treatment what keeps them in check? Why don't they just keep going until 90% or more of us are wiped out? Simple answer, a disease that kills quickly naturally limits its spread so they often tend to disappear or mutate into something less harmful/noticeable. Also people/authorities may take precautions that help eg wars end, people get healthier, infection control is tightened up (procedures & enforcement). Some diseases are also seasonal. In some cases, the selection pressure is such that we evolve ways of protecting ourselves from it. i read a paper recently that suggested the reason why some people get Crohn's disease was that certain gene mutations that are correlated with incidence were selected for during European plague outbreaks.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Jan 30, 2020 12:21:29 GMT
One thing I don't understand is why do these pandemics eventually peter out? I mean some of the diseases are pretty deadly for most infected such as bubonic plague and even ebola (I think). Without any real form of treatment what keeps them in check? Why don't they just keep going until 90% or more of us are wiped out? Simple answer, a disease that kills quickly naturally limits its spread so they often tend to disappear or mutate into something less harmful/noticeable. Also people/authorities may take precautions that help eg wars end, people get healthier, infection control is tightened up (procedures & enforcement). Some diseases are also seasonal. In some cases, the selection pressure is such that we evolve ways of protecting ourselves from it. i read a paper recently that suggested the reason why some people get Crohn's disease was that certain gene mutations that are correlated with incidence were selected for during European plague outbreaks. Thanks a lot for picking up my question. I'm still trying to get my head around your first part. Do you mean that once folk start getting seriously ill in numbers then other uninfected people know to stay away (or take enormous precautions) and thus the disease has nowhere to go ?
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Godanubis
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Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
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Post by Godanubis on Jan 30, 2020 14:09:26 GMT
One thing I don't understand is why do these pandemics eventually peter out? I mean some of the diseases are pretty deadly for most infected such as bubonic plague and even ebola (I think). Without any real form of treatment what keeps them in check? Why don't they just keep going until 90% or more of us are wiped out? Simple answer, a disease that kills quickly naturally limits its spread so they often tend to disappear or mutate into something less harmful/noticeable. Also people/authorities may take precautions that help eg wars end, people get healthier, infection control is tightened up (procedures & enforcement). Some diseases are also seasonal. In some cases, the selection pressure is such that we evolve ways of protecting ourselves from it. i read a paper recently that suggested the reason why some people get Crohn's disease was that certain gene mutations that are correlated with incidence were selected for during European plague outbreaks. There is a difference in quick opportunistic mutations that don’t survive and mutations that can adapt and prosper. Those with the ability to infect without high mortality rate will survive like Hiv mutations. Some beneficial gene mutations that are advantageous in some situations where movement was restricted in the past have huge effects in modern societies. There are plentiful of examples . Sickle Cell mutations to protect against malaria and Hemochromatosis gene can protect during ancient famine. These can cause problems in modern society where diets are less stressful on the body. Sad but true the world needs a pandemic to clean up its act and rid itself of us troublesome humans. A short hard shock to a single generation could fix all the major environmental problems. Unfortunately we are the generation that will suffer. The perfect solution is a euphoria producing virus that spreads easily and has the side effect of causing sterility in 70% of those infected that would fix the earth without any great hardship individually .
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Post by bracknellboy on Jan 30, 2020 15:02:47 GMT
That's probably why we now take the potential of dangerous pandemics seriously. You don't know positively which one will be 'the one' until it's out of control, whether we could stop or contain 'the one' is another matter. Quite. And why they should be taken seriously. Even if precautionary actions taken turn out to have been unnecessary. Though even then, if something dies out/recedes, difficult to say whether the actions were entirely unnecessary: the more hosts a new virus has, the more scope for mutations into something more virulent or/and more infectious.
Today's landscape of fast and frequent global travel makes the threat of the "next big one" that much more real. What is encouraging, is how much more rapidly we may be able to generate effective vaccines than even 10-15 years ago.
The 2014-16 Ebola outbreak was the one that I did genuinely worry about. Partly because I'd been "thoughtful" for many years of the potential if Ebola (or Marburg) went global. Because of its high mortality rates, and the nature of the areas where it appears to break out from its natural host, it had always tended to blow itself out fairly quickly. But better communications links to higher and denser population areas, plus global travel, means the potential for it being unleashed world wide had and have increased significantly.
Still, I wasn't overly appreciative of having to come through Heathrow passport control yesterday at the same time as a plane load of face masked passengers disgorged from a plane from China (apparently).
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ozboy
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Post by ozboy on Jan 30, 2020 15:19:00 GMT
Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't a number of these diseases cross-over because humans have sex and/or interfere with animals?
IF so, it makes eminent sense to me to be, shall we say, more "circumspect" when dealing with countries where such practices are more likely to occur?
Political Correctness and it's Cousins are all well and good, but I don't want to die from them. Especially through no fault of my own.
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Post by bracknellboy on Jan 30, 2020 15:21:23 GMT
Simple answer, a disease that kills quickly naturally limits its spread so they often tend to disappear or mutate into something less harmful/noticeable. Also people/authorities may take precautions that help eg wars end, people get healthier, infection control is tightened up (procedures & enforcement). Some diseases are also seasonal. In some cases, the selection pressure is such that we evolve ways of protecting ourselves from it. i read a paper recently that suggested the reason why some people get Crohn's disease was that certain gene mutations that are correlated with incidence were selected for during European plague outbreaks. Thanks a lot for picking up my question. I'm still trying to get my head around your first part. Do you mean that once folk start getting seriously ill in numbers then other uninfected people know to stay away (or take enormous precautions) and thus the disease has nowhere to go ?Well maybe, but also maybe not.
Take Ebola (or god forbid Marburg). It is highly virulent, and also pretty infectious, but has as yet not mutated into a form which is airborne. But humans are not its natural "reservoir": we can't be because it carries such high mortality rates for us. As it's pretty highly infectious, it can spread fairly easily and quickly, and wipe out a high portion of the population.
Some may get infected and survive and in the process develop some level of immunity. Others will have escaped infection until its wiped out all other infected members of the population, so IN HUMANS the infection burns out as its killed off its temporary host. But it is still sitting there in its reservoir host (for whom it is not virulent) in the forest/jungle/cave (bats???) just waiting to cross the species boundary next time someone takes a liking to eating an infected animal (or however it really gets across the species boundary). That person will then wander back to their village, get (very) ill, infect others, and the cycle starts again.
Fine if that is a village in the middle of Africa with a 10-15 day walk to the nearest major population centre (well, except for the villagers of course). Not so great if one of them can jump in a car, get to the nearest town which has a rail link to the city which has a nice busy airport......
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