r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Oct 13, 2020 10:15:22 GMT
I don't understand why they don't even check people with the latest tech. π€¦ββοΈ When Hermes delivers a parcel, it provides a pic and GEO data. Surely they could do a video call and double check with geo data. As a semi-educated guess, that would require a reasonably sophisticated IT system by public sector standards. UK Government IT is horribly bureaucratic and complex under the bonnet; it typically takes weeks just to define the requirements for a project, never mind putting it out for tender and then actually building it. Meanwhile, in the private sector, companies can opt to throw caution to the wind and do minimal testing and use whatever technologies seem right or seem right to fix what's broken. In the public sector there would be a horribly comprehensive array of testing mandated, and they would be bound to particular technologies/software also. Finally, in fairness to them, the stringency of the security requirements are that much more than the private sector, for good reason. That means a lot more physical infrastructure, acquisition of such, configuration, development and again testing for a proper shiny new system. Even with an expedited path through all of this, you'd be talking months. They needed a result in basically days/few weeks, which I would surmise is why they cracked out a copy of Excel for all of this. edit: Cross-thread sidenote, the above is why the new Brexity customs GVMS system threatens to be yet another show-de-merde. Government IT systems development does not like hard deadlines.
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Oct 13, 2020 13:05:48 GMT
Sage minutes, 21 Sep 2020 [pdf]: As over 90% of the population remain susceptible not acting now to reduce cases will result in a very large epidemic with catastrophic consequences in terms of direct COVID related deaths and the ability of the health service to meet needs.I'm not really worried about catching Covid-19, but I do hope not to have any health problems whatsoever this winter. An effective test, trace and isolate (TTI) system is important to reduce the incidence of infections in the community. Estimates of the effectiveness of this system on R are difficult to ascertain. The relatively low levels of engagement with the system (comparing ONS incidence estimates with NHS Test and Trace numbers) coupled with testing delays and likely poor rates of adherence with self-isolation suggests that this system is having a marginal impact on transmission at the moment. Unless the system grows at the same rate as the epidemic, and support is given to people to enable them to adhere to self-isolation, it is likely that the impact of Test, Trace and Isolate will further decline in the future.
(Emphasis mine.) Confirmation that the current test & trace system is almost useless.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Oct 13, 2020 13:52:27 GMT
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Mike
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Post by Mike on Oct 13, 2020 14:50:31 GMT
Right, it's too late too fix big problems like Test and Trace, but there are other millions things the gov can do Things that might help suppressing the virus - BMJ has suggested MASKS outdoors, and GOV refuses to act on it. It doesn't cost much to implement www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1435This piece concludes "We believe that, worn both in the home (particularly by the person showing symptoms) and also outside the home in situations where meeting others is likely (for example, shopping, public transport), they could have a substantial impact on transmission" which seems to me (shopping, public transport) more or less exactly what the government has done. I skimmed the piece and (apart from noticing this "overall, mask wearing both in general and by infected members within households seemed to produce small but statistically non-significant reductions in infection rates") it didn't seem to suggest to me that universal mask-wearing in the great outdoors was to be encouraged. As for the parties and bars, social distancing is not a rule, it's government advice - the police can only enforce the law and the law says nothing about social distancing. Meanwhile for the shops and face covering exemptions - the government would need to create an official document or certificate before it could be used as evidence entering Asda. Moreover, something of an humiliation to be challenged every time you need to shop because you are disabled/whatever. Perhaps there is already disability anti-discrimination legislation that prevents shop keepers from (legally) demanding to know why someone is exempt. It's certainly a legal minefield.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Oct 13, 2020 15:01:08 GMT
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Oct 13, 2020 15:05:05 GMT
Right, it's too late too fix big problems like Test and Trace, but there are other millions things the gov can do Test & trace is not working partly due to "poor rates of adherence with self-isolation". Unfortunately the same attitude is why these other things won't work either. The fundamental issue is that people no longer trust the official advice.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Oct 13, 2020 15:19:01 GMT
www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-54524291Latest figures, 21% of school not fully open and rising. Soon or later, more than 50% are forced to close down and the GOV could proudly defend 50% pupils remain in school instead of 0.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Oct 13, 2020 15:30:04 GMT
If this thing is so big and bad that we have to almost stop living as we knew it then its big enough to put on hold some privacy laws in the interest of health.
The app should be mandatory. There should be dongles to buy for those who don't have or can't use a smart phone. ENforcement the same way as for social distancing and mask wearing. Travellers to the UK must install the app (there are many countries asking for that now). Fixed penalty tickets for those that don't comply.
You should have to provide your identifying details to the app (name and whatever else). You can't legally have two - it works the same way as an ID card would.
So if you're grounded you really are grounded.
If it alerts you to having had possible contact in the past then it tells you when and where and as much reasonable detail as it can.
What has actually been done is a half way house to nothing of little use to anyone.
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Post by dan1 on Oct 13, 2020 15:38:33 GMT
If this thing is so big and bad that we have to almost stop living as we knew it then its big enough to put on hold some privacy laws in the interest of health. The app should be mandatory. There should be dongles to buy for those who don't have or can't use a smart phone. ENforcement the same way as for social distancing and mask wearing. Travellers to the UK must install the app (there are many countries asking for that now). Fixed penalty tickets for those that don't comply. You should have to provide your identifying details to the app (name and whatever else). You can't legally have two - it works the same way as an ID card would. So if you're grounded you really are grounded. If it alerts you to having had possible contact in the past then it tells you when and where and as much reasonable detail as it can. What has actually been done is a half way house to nothing of little use to anyone. Ahhh but the problem is that we're a "freedom-loving" nation One could say it's a bit like "herding" cats... oh, the irony At least I can segway one of my favourite clips into this...
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Post by dan1 on Oct 13, 2020 16:00:12 GMT
A timely release of the latest MRC Biostatistics Unit COVID-19 Working Group Nowcast, last released on 6 August... joshuablake.github.io/public-RTM-reports/iframe.html This information feeds directly to the SAGE sub-group, Scientific Pandemic Influenza sub-group on Modelling (SPI-M), and to regional Public Health England (PHE) teamsDefinitely worth taking the time to read through if you're in anyway interested in this stuff. For comparison, Vallance's projection was over 40,000 for the UK as of today. There are significant reductions in the estimate IFR - from 1.4% on 6 August to 0.91% for infections early in the pandemic to 0.69% more recently (to be read in conjunction with the CI's as with all this data). I expect the press will pick up on the deaths prediction as soon as it's pointed out to them. And again, note this is for England only. A timely piece by HuffPost UK based on a leaked COVID-19 Situation Report from last Thursday... Revealed: The Government Isnβt Certain The Coronavirus 'R' Rate Is Below 1 In England www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/uk-coronavirus-r-rate_uk_5ef1f629c5b645f5d4871f61I was already suspicious of the timing of the release of the MRC BSU "Nowcast" and it would appear I was justified in that opinion. I've no doubt that internally this nowcast is updated daily (at least on working days) so who decides when, and on what basis, updates are released to the public? I reserve the same criticism for the estimates provided by CMMID from LSH&TM (see here). Why the secrecy?
The MRC Biostatistics Unit COVID-19 Working Group Nowcast was updated today for the first time since 5th June (not exactly a "Nowcast" )... www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/They estimate there are currently 4,300 infections per day. Note updated finding #2: We predict that the number of deaths each day is likely to fall to between 60 and 90 by the end of the first week of July. As below, they were estimating 17,000 infections 17 days ago when they indicated we'd be seeing about 150 deaths a day - certainly in the right ball park when looking at the current 7-day rolling average (e.g. see here). The infection rate (aka "attack rate") is estimated at 8% across England, down from the estimate of 10% previously. I assume the reduction is due to higher fidelity data from ONS infection survey (blood donors etc). Somewhat disappointing, if not unsurprising, when viewed in the context of herd immunity. R t is showing a marked reduction (consistent with the reduction in the number of infections per day) - 0.76 in NE to 0.94 in SW (but note there are "only" 300 odd infections per day in SW). Note updated finding #5: The data used are only weakly informative on Rt over the last two weeks. Therefore, the now-cast for current incidence and the forecast of deaths are quite uncertain.Infection fatality rate (IFR) has been revised upward to 1.1% (age 0-74 revised upward slightly, and 75+ revised downward). Sadly not unexpected following additional weekly ONS data releases, and consistent with estimates from the continent. I've marked up my post below to show the revisions from 5th June to 22nd June. And a revised chart (note that I've replaced the mid-age with median-age in the absicissa)...
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Oct 13, 2020 16:09:25 GMT
If this thing is so big and bad that we have to almost stop living as we knew it then its big enough to put on hold some privacy laws in the interest of health. The app should be mandatory. There should be dongles to buy for those who don't have or can't use a smart phone. ENforcement the same way as for social distancing and mask wearing. Travellers to the UK must install the app (there are many countries asking for that now). Fixed penalty tickets for those that don't comply. You should have to provide your identifying details to the app (name and whatever else). You can't legally have two - it works the same way as an ID card would. So if you're grounded you really are grounded. If it alerts you to having had possible contact in the past then it tells you when and where and as much reasonable detail as it can. What has actually been done is a half way house to nothing of little use to anyone. There's ALWAYS an initial "justifiable" reason (usually associated with something scary) for taking away civil liberties. Similarly for authoritarian checks (for "show me your papers" replace with "show me your app"). And fighting crime is so much easier when everyone has a mandatory tracking device on them, to be linked in with facial recognition on CCTV cameras (see also: China). Once civil liberties are gone, history tells us it is really difficult to get them back, because there is always the next scary thing that they could be useful for (after the pandemic, controlling terrorism). Somehow "putting on hold" carries on indefinitely. Be very, very careful about what you wish for.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Oct 13, 2020 16:30:13 GMT
If this thing is so big and bad that we have to almost stop living as we knew it then its big enough to put on hold some privacy laws in the interest of health. The app should be mandatory. There should be dongles to buy for those who don't have or can't use a smart phone. ENforcement the same way as for social distancing and mask wearing. Travellers to the UK must install the app (there are many countries asking for that now). Fixed penalty tickets for those that don't comply. You should have to provide your identifying details to the app (name and whatever else). You can't legally have two - it works the same way as an ID card would. So if you're grounded you really are grounded. If it alerts you to having had possible contact in the past then it tells you when and where and as much reasonable detail as it can. What has actually been done is a half way house to nothing of little use to anyone. There's ALWAYS an initial "justifiable" reason (usually associated with something scary) for taking away civil liberties. Similarly for authoritarian checks (for "show me your papers" replace with "show me your app"). And fighting crime is so much easier when everyone has a mandatory tracking device on them, to be linked in with facial recognition on CCTV cameras (see also: China). Once civil liberties are gone, history tells us it is really difficult to get them back, because there is always the next scary thing that they could be useful for (after the pandemic, controlling terrorism). Somehow "putting on hold" carries on indefinitely. Be very, very careful about what you wish for. I see your point absolutely but we've already been put under mass house arrest and forced by decree what we must wear and who we may meet etc etc. Carrying a covid electronic ID card seems like a small step in comparison to me.
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Oct 13, 2020 16:38:13 GMT
There's ALWAYS an initial "justifiable" reason (usually associated with something scary) for taking away civil liberties. Similarly for authoritarian checks (for "show me your papers" replace with "show me your app"). And fighting crime is so much easier when everyone has a mandatory tracking device on them, to be linked in with facial recognition on CCTV cameras (see also: China). Once civil liberties are gone, history tells us it is really difficult to get them back, because there is always the next scary thing that they could be useful for (after the pandemic, controlling terrorism). Somehow "putting on hold" carries on indefinitely. Be very, very careful about what you wish for. Why do people in this country worry so much about ID cards yet seem oblivious to the mass surveillance operated by GCHQ?
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Post by dan1 on Oct 13, 2020 17:06:04 GMT
I bet this woman supports herd immunity
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Oct 13, 2020 17:13:29 GMT
I bet this woman supports herd immunity Surely everyone supports herd immunity? The only question is by what mechanism, and how fast, to get there.
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