benaj
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Post by benaj on Oct 13, 2020 17:25:52 GMT
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Post by dan1 on Oct 13, 2020 17:48:32 GMT
I bet this woman supports herd immunity Surely everyone supports herd immunity? The only question is by what mechanism, and how fast, to get there. I must find a succinct way of differentiating infection acquired vs vaccine acquired herd immunity. How about I refer to the Dr Johnny Bananas route as turd community?
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Post by bracknellboy on Oct 13, 2020 17:48:48 GMT
at this rate, it might just about be enough for Liverpool.
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Post by df on Oct 13, 2020 18:17:58 GMT
I bet this woman supports herd immunity Surely everyone supports herd immunity? The only question is by what mechanism, and how fast, to get there. Re-opening universities seems to be one of them. My friend's son just started in Leeds uni and already tested positive as almost everyone in their accommodation block. All lessons are on line anyway, so what's the point of moving on campus?
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Oct 13, 2020 18:26:53 GMT
Surely everyone supports herd immunity? The only question is by what mechanism, and how fast, to get there. I must find a succinct way of differentiating infection acquired vs vaccine acquired herd immunity. How about I refer to the Dr Johnny Bananas route as turd community? That should suffice - we will keep an eye out for when you drop a turd into the conversation. More seriously, there is also the tendency to view herd immunity as an all or nothing thing. In reality, the more immune people you have, the more breaks you have to transmission, so spread should be reduced the higher the number of immune people there are. You don't have to reach the magic 40 or 60% or whatever the latest estimate is for infection-acquired immunity to be useful, especially if you also have some sustainable non-pharmacological interventions to also help reduced spread alongside it.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Oct 13, 2020 18:28:18 GMT
America bought up all the world's stocks. Why is it even an ally ?
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Oct 13, 2020 18:29:53 GMT
Surely everyone supports herd immunity? The only question is by what mechanism, and how fast, to get there. Re-opening universities seems to be one of them. My friend's son just started in Leeds uni and already tested positive as almost everyone in their accommodation block. All lessons are on line anyway, so what's the point of moving on campus? My nephew in same situation in York too. It's carnage up North.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Oct 13, 2020 18:30:40 GMT
I must find a succinct way of differentiating infection acquired vs vaccine acquired herd immunity. How about I refer to the Dr Johnny Bananas route as turd community? That should suffice - we will keep an eye out for when you drop a turd into the conversation. More seriously, there is also the tendency to view herd immunity as an all or nothing thing. In reality, the more immune people you have, the more breaks you have to transmission, so spread should be reduced the higher the number of immune people there are. You don't have to reach the magic 40 or 60% or whatever the latest estimate is for infection-acquired immunity to be useful, especially if you also have some sustainable non-pharmacological interventions to also help reduced spread alongside it. So why not let it rip through the younger generation (should they wish to take part) ?
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Post by bracknellboy on Oct 13, 2020 18:39:42 GMT
"Health officials in China say they've tested more than three million people in the last 48 hours after a cluster of coronavirus infections was detected in the city of Qingdao "
The mind boggles. World beating testing system anyone ?
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Post by dan1 on Oct 13, 2020 18:58:12 GMT
I must find a succinct way of differentiating infection acquired vs vaccine acquired herd immunity. How about I refer to the Dr Johnny Bananas route as turd community? That should suffice - we will keep an eye out for when you drop a turd into the conversation. More seriously, there is also the tendency to view herd immunity as an all or nothing thing. In reality, the more immune people you have, the more breaks you have to transmission, so spread should be reduced the higher the number of immune people there are. You don't have to reach the magic 40 or 60% or whatever the latest estimate is for infection-acquired immunity to be useful, especially if you also have some sustainable non-pharmacological interventions to also help reduced spread alongside it. I'm sure most users on here think I drop a turd everytime I post I'm pretty sure Johnson is deliberately driving infection in schools (as in Sweden - as per Tegnell's leaked emails) and universities to boost infection rates in the shortest possible time. That's why I suspect what's happening in places like Manaus, Stockholm, Paris, Madrid etc are more concerning to Johnson than the carnage in the Liverpool university hospitals. Immunity wanes though and reinfection is possible. Worth noting that in the UK we're not tracking reinfections - another failure of the track & trace system. I suspect the HIT is more like 80% than 40%. Why? Original estimates of R 0 were based on poor data as a result of the limitations on testing and therefore spread of the virus, as well as the assumption that the virus wasn't airborne, and finally because changing behaviour prior to lockdown was poorly understood. And as we know a higher R 0 leads to higher HIT. Basically, I don't see why this coronavirus will be any different to flu or common cold viruses in terms of immunity and we'll end up managing SARS-CoV-2 as we do flu yet with a more comprehensive vaccination programme.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Oct 13, 2020 19:03:37 GMT
I bet this woman supports herd immunity Surely everyone supports herd immunity? The only question is by what mechanism, and how fast, to get there. Is there any evidence that herd immunity works?
Countries with the lowest infection rates (predominantly SE Asia) have a very different approach, which is helped by the fact that residents have a far better attitude to complying with the regulations than the self entitled youngsters you see in UK. Lock down the people that are causing the problem (17 to 25 year olds), not the people following the rules.
Interesting that a few days ago Andy Burnam didn't want a lockdown in Manchester but now he supports a national lockdown. Why should hospitality outlets near where I live (infection rate about 20) have to close because people in the north (infection rate 700) can't following the regulations?
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Oct 13, 2020 19:33:31 GMT
Is there any evidence that herd immunity works? There were claims that the city of Manaus (Brazil) had reached herd immunity, at the cost of some 3,400 dead. Unfortunately infections are now going up again.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Oct 13, 2020 21:29:31 GMT
Surely everyone supports herd immunity? The only question is by what mechanism, and how fast, to get there. Is there any evidence that herd immunity works?
Countries with the lowest infection rates (predominantly SE Asia) have a very different approach, which is helped by the fact that residents have a far better attitude to complying with the regulations than the self entitled youngsters you see in UK. Lock down the people that are causing the problem (17 to 25 year olds), not the people following the rules.
Interesting that a few days ago Andy Burnam didn't want a lockdown in Manchester but now he supports a national lockdown. Why should hospitality outlets near where I live (infection rate about 20) have to close because people in the north (infection rate 700) can't following the regulations?
For coronavirus? No. But that's the basis of the vaccines so I think we are all hoping it does work for coronavirus.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Oct 13, 2020 21:42:52 GMT
That should suffice - we will keep an eye out for when you drop a turd into the conversation. More seriously, there is also the tendency to view herd immunity as an all or nothing thing. In reality, the more immune people you have, the more breaks you have to transmission, so spread should be reduced the higher the number of immune people there are. You don't have to reach the magic 40 or 60% or whatever the latest estimate is for infection-acquired immunity to be useful, especially if you also have some sustainable non-pharmacological interventions to also help reduced spread alongside it. I'm sure most users on here think I drop a turd everytime I post I'm pretty sure Johnson is deliberately driving infection in schools (as in Sweden - as per Tegnell's leaked emails) and universities to boost infection rates in the shortest possible time. That's why I suspect what's happening in places like Manaus, Stockholm, Paris, Madrid etc are more concerning to Johnson than the carnage in the Liverpool university hospitals. Immunity wanes though and reinfection is possible. Worth noting that in the UK we're not tracking reinfections - another failure of the track & trace system. I suspect the HIT is more like 80% than 40%. Why? Original estimates of R 0 were based on poor data as a result of the limitations on testing and therefore spread of the virus, as well as the assumption that the virus wasn't airborne, and finally because changing behaviour prior to lockdown was poorly understood. And as we know a higher R 0 leads to higher HIT. Basically, I don't see why this coronavirus will be any different to flu or common cold viruses in terms of immunity and we'll end up managing SARS-CoV-2 as we do flu yet with a more comprehensive vaccination programme. Reinfection is possible, but out of the hundreds of millions of people infected with coronavirus I think there has been single figure reports of reinfection (four?), not all properly confirmed. It seems vanishingly unlikely that reinfection is a significant risk, at least in the time frames between say an annual vaccination. HIT will vary depending on the population and its behaviour - when R is lower (handwashing, social distancing, heterogeneity etc), then HIT will be lower. The virus is endemic now, and yes vaccinations the likely way forward if we get them in time - with the frequency needed yet to be determined (and with a longer roll out and logistics problem than is probably anticipated - so ongoing restrictions for quite some time during 2021). I think the side effects might be something that becomes a focus though - they will be likely be rare but severe (eg Guillain-Barre)
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Oct 13, 2020 21:46:57 GMT
Surely everyone supports herd immunity? The only question is by what mechanism, and how fast, to get there. Is there any evidence that herd immunity works?
Countries with the lowest infection rates (predominantly SE Asia) have a very different approach, which is helped by the fact that residents have a far better attitude to complying with the regulations than the self entitled youngsters you see in UK. Lock down the people that are causing the problem (17 to 25 year olds), not the people following the rules.
It is a lot easier for older folk like me to follow the rules. I don't believe that those aged 17-25 are any more or less self-entitled than any other age group except perhaps children. I do think it is a good thing that those who are unlikely to suffer much from the disease contract it as soon as possible.
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