mrk
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Post by mrk on Oct 13, 2020 22:01:53 GMT
Is there any evidence that herd immunity works? For coronavirus? No. But that's the basis of the vaccines so I think we are all hoping it does work for coronavirus. Kinda. From I understand, for a vaccine to create proper herd immunity it would need to have "sterilising immunity", i.e. stopping people from getting infected in the first place. Like the one against measles. Vaccines currently under advanced trials seem to only reduce the severity of the symptoms, but the vaccinated can still get infected and therefore spread it to other people. That doesn't mean such vaccine wouldn't be useful. Like flu vaccines.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Oct 13, 2020 22:18:41 GMT
For coronavirus? No. But that's the basis of the vaccines so I think we are all hoping it does work for coronavirus. Kinda. From I understand, for a vaccine to create proper herd immunity it would need to have "sterilising immunity", i.e. stopping people from getting infected in the first place. Like the one against measles. Vaccines currently under advanced trials seem to only reduce the severity of the symptoms, but the vaccinated can still get infected and therefore spread it to other people. That doesn't mean such vaccine wouldn't be useful. Like flu vaccines. Aha - "proper" herd immunity v plain old herd immunity. I guess we will see - but sure, if you can still spread it after being vaccinated then that's not good. I thought the main issue with flu vaccines was that there are many strains of influenza so it doesn't protect against all strains, rather than just reducing the severity of the illness. i.e. if it is close match it often will stop you getting infected.
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Oct 13, 2020 22:54:35 GMT
Kinda. From I understand, for a vaccine to create proper herd immunity it would need to have "sterilising immunity", i.e. stopping people from getting infected in the first place. Like the one against measles. Vaccines currently under advanced trials seem to only reduce the severity of the symptoms, but the vaccinated can still get infected and therefore spread it to other people. That doesn't mean such vaccine wouldn't be useful. Like flu vaccines. Aha - "proper" herd immunity v plain old herd immunity. I guess we will see - but sure, if you can still spread it after being vaccinated then that's not good. I thought the main issue with flu vaccines was that there are many strains of influenza so it doesn't protect against all strains, rather than just reducing the severity of the illness. i.e. if it is close match it often will stop you getting infected. Indeed, flu viruses mutate a lot while coronaviruses are supposed to be more stable. But the vaccines currently under trial are not even being assessed on their ability to reduce virus transmission, only on disease risk reduction. From What can we expect from first-generation COVID-19 vaccines?The notion that COVID-19-vaccine-induced population immunity will allow a return to pre-COVID-19 “normalcy” might be based on illusory assumptions.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Oct 13, 2020 23:22:20 GMT
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Oct 14, 2020 9:21:04 GMT
I am sure more people would sign up for £2000 or a brand new iPhone 12 instantly just to get Covid.
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shimself
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Post by shimself on Oct 14, 2020 9:43:12 GMT
Living in France. Symptom Monday, found and booked a Drive test (doctolib.fr) for Tuesday 10am, result (negative) by email Tuesday 21h. Thank god for free market (doctolib, test company) socialism (free of charge, the result automatically on the medical record)
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Post by dan1 on Oct 14, 2020 10:01:06 GMT
I'm sure most users on here think I drop a turd everytime I post I'm pretty sure Johnson is deliberately driving infection in schools (as in Sweden - as per Tegnell's leaked emails) and universities to boost infection rates in the shortest possible time. That's why I suspect what's happening in places like Manaus, Stockholm, Paris, Madrid etc are more concerning to Johnson than the carnage in the Liverpool university hospitals. Immunity wanes though and reinfection is possible. Worth noting that in the UK we're not tracking reinfections - another failure of the track & trace system. I suspect the HIT is more like 80% than 40%. Why? Original estimates of R 0 were based on poor data as a result of the limitations on testing and therefore spread of the virus, as well as the assumption that the virus wasn't airborne, and finally because changing behaviour prior to lockdown was poorly understood. And as we know a higher R 0 leads to higher HIT. Basically, I don't see why this coronavirus will be any different to flu or common cold viruses in terms of immunity and we'll end up managing SARS-CoV-2 as we do flu yet with a more comprehensive vaccination programme. Reinfection is possible, but out of the hundreds of millions of people infected with coronavirus I think there has been single figure reports of reinfection (four?), not all properly confirmed. It seems vanishingly unlikely that reinfection is a significant risk, at least in the time frames between say an annual vaccination. HIT will vary depending on the population and its behaviour - when R is lower (handwashing, social distancing, heterogeneity etc), then HIT will be lower. The virus is endemic now, and yes vaccinations the likely way forward if we get them in time - with the frequency needed yet to be determined (and with a longer roll out and logistics problem than is probably anticipated - so ongoing restrictions for quite some time during 2021). I think the side effects might be something that becomes a focus though - they will be likely be rare but severe (eg Guillain-Barre) More like a couple of dozen or so including a death. The problem I have with the whole reinfection argument is the use of "evidence" by those downplaying the pandemic. We hear a lot of stuff that begins with "there is no evidence for...", e.g.: - human to human transmission
- it's no worse than flu
- asymptomatic carriers
- kids don't get it
- kids don't spread it
- reinfection
- HIT has been reached
- half the UK population were infected by late March
- there will be 10k deaths in the USA
- IFR is vanishingly small
- airborne
I could go on. We're talking of HIT in a normal society (think New Zealand) - what we don't want to contemplate is modified behaviour for eternity. The other important factor in raising HIT is the dominant D614G mutation. I expect this tweet to be deleted in due course but Jesus this is from a health minister...
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Oct 14, 2020 10:18:36 GMT
Living in France. Symptom Monday, found and booked a Drive test (doctolib.fr) for Tuesday 10am, result (negative) by email Tuesday 21h. Thank god for free market (doctolib, test company) socialism (free of charge, the result automatically on the medical record)
But this hasn't stopped France from having significantly more cases than UK.
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ilmoro
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'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Oct 14, 2020 10:19:25 GMT
Reinfection is possible, but out of the hundreds of millions of people infected with coronavirus I think there has been single figure reports of reinfection (four?), not all properly confirmed. It seems vanishingly unlikely that reinfection is a significant risk, at least in the time frames between say an annual vaccination. HIT will vary depending on the population and its behaviour - when R is lower (handwashing, social distancing, heterogeneity etc), then HIT will be lower. The virus is endemic now, and yes vaccinations the likely way forward if we get them in time - with the frequency needed yet to be determined (and with a longer roll out and logistics problem than is probably anticipated - so ongoing restrictions for quite some time during 2021). I think the side effects might be something that becomes a focus though - they will be likely be rare but severe (eg Guillain-Barre) More like a couple of dozen or so including a death. The problem I have with the whole reinfection argument is the use of "evidence" by those downplaying the pandemic. We hear a lot of stuff that begins with "there is no evidence for...", e.g.: - human to human transmission
- it's no worse than flu
- asymptomatic carriers
- kids don't get it
- kids don't spread it
- reinfection
- HIT has been reached
- half the UK population were infected by late March
- there will be 10k deaths in the USA
- IFR is vanishingly small
- airborne
I could go on. We're talking of HIT in a normal society (think New Zealand) - what we don't want to contemplate is modified behaviour for eternity. The other important factor in raising HIT is the dominant D614G mutation. I expect this tweet to be deleted in due course but Jesus this is from a health minister... Meanwhile in the developing world it appears to be a thing thefinancialexpress.com.bd/public/index.php/national/bangladesh-sees-herd-immunity-study-1602561365
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Post by dan1 on Oct 14, 2020 10:24:02 GMT
More like a couple of dozen or so including a death. The problem I have with the whole reinfection argument is the use of "evidence" by those downplaying the pandemic. We hear a lot of stuff that begins with "there is no evidence for...", e.g.: - human to human transmission
- it's no worse than flu
- asymptomatic carriers
- kids don't get it
- kids don't spread it
- reinfection
- HIT has been reached
- half the UK population were infected by late March
- there will be 10k deaths in the USA
- IFR is vanishingly small
- airborne
I could go on. We're talking of HIT in a normal society (think New Zealand) - what we don't want to contemplate is modified behaviour for eternity. The other important factor in raising HIT is the dominant D614G mutation. I expect this tweet to be deleted in due course but Jesus this is from a health minister... Meanwhile in the developing world it appears to be a thing thefinancialexpress.com.bd/public/index.php/national/bangladesh-sees-herd-immunity-study-1602561365Not read the article but it makes a great deal more sense when the median age of your population is 27.6... in the UK it's nearly 50% higher at over 40. Edit: there's an important point here that it's easy to overlook. The vast majority* of discrepancies in estimates of IFR are due to the age demographics of the populations being studied. Therefore, you expect the IFR in Bangladesh to be much lower than in the UK. * 90% if I recall something I read a while back
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shimself
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Post by shimself on Oct 14, 2020 10:27:17 GMT
Living in France. Symptom Monday, found and booked a Drive test (doctolib.fr) for Tuesday 10am, result (negative) by email Tuesday 21h. Thank god for free market (doctolib, test company) socialism (free of charge, the result automatically on the medical record)
But this hasn't stopped France from having significantly more cases than UK. Making it possible to get a timely test is going to get you more positive results, even DT worked that one out. In terms of deaths per million France is significantly less worse than UK (both being awful), the much vaunted Sweden lying between the 2. www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Oct 14, 2020 10:27:33 GMT
I expect this tweet to be deleted in due course but Jesus this is from a health minister... Paying attention to anything that Nadine Dorries says is probably a greater risk to your health than COVID-19.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Oct 14, 2020 10:35:32 GMT
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Post by dan1 on Oct 14, 2020 10:36:13 GMT
I expect this tweet to be deleted in due course but Jesus this is from a health minister... Paying attention to anything that Nadine Dorries says is probably a greater risk to your health than COVID-19. Absolutely, but she could be Health Secretary if Door Matt ever finds his conscience
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Oct 14, 2020 10:45:39 GMT
It appeared to be a thing in Manaus as well, but now infections are going up again. To be sure herd immunity works we need to see not just a high rate of seropositivity among the population but infections actually going down and staying down at least for a few months.
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