IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Nov 3, 2020 14:15:43 GMT
The argument has never been (for sensible folk) that the Swedish approach will avoid harm or difficult trade-offs - it's that all roads eventually lead to Rome, whether you do full lockdown or not, and that short term benefits of lockdown are counterbalanced by longer term harms. I have some sympathy with your point of view. The issue I have is the bastardisation of the evidence in support of the let it rip strategy. From very low IFR, herd immunity threshold may have already been reached in Stockholm/NYC/Lombardy, the rise in cases is down to false positives due to increased testing, C-19 deaths are just displaced, the outright denial of excess mortality statistics, we can't lockdown because of the economy,.... I could go on and on. One of the major reasons these fringe views have gained prominence in this country are our own governments scientific advisors secrecy when it comes to modelling, data, reports - let the data be shared in a transparent, timely, and complete manner to whoever wishes to use it whether that be Independent SAGE or the likes of Trump, Atlas, Ioannidis, Tegnell, Giesecke, Gupta, Heneghan, Farage, Steve Baker etc. I'm not sure it is my view, although I do think we underestimate the health harms of lockdown because they aren't as visible and immediate. My view is more that - as you say - we should have full transparency as to what trade-offs we are making, and for what goals. But that sort of honest, grown up debate (and leadership) is I am afraid long gone.
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Post by dan1 on Nov 3, 2020 14:22:24 GMT
I have some sympathy with your point of view. The issue I have is the bastardisation of the evidence in support of the let it rip strategy. From very low IFR, herd immunity threshold may have already been reached in Stockholm/NYC/Lombardy, the rise in cases is down to false positives due to increased testing, C-19 deaths are just displaced, the outright denial of excess mortality statistics, we can't lockdown because of the economy,.... I could go on and on. One of the major reasons these fringe views have gained prominence in this country are our own governments scientific advisors secrecy when it comes to modelling, data, reports - let the data be shared in a transparent, timely, and complete manner to whoever wishes to use it whether that be Independent SAGE or the likes of Trump, Atlas, Ioannidis, Tegnell, Giesecke, Gupta, Heneghan, Farage, Steve Baker etc. I'm not sure it is my view, although I do think we underestimate the health harms of lockdown because they aren't as visible and immediate. My view is more that - as you say - we should have full transparency as to what trade-offs we are making, and for what goals. But that sort of honest, grown up debate (and leadership) is I am afraid long gone. Apologies, I didn't mean to indict you of such manipulation! I should have stated something like "The issue I have with those pushing the let it rip strategy is the..." or some such words. And I firmly believe we underestimated the dangers that this pandemic posed right from the get-go hence why much of Europe & USA is in the mess we find ourselves in today. Many countries in Asia/Oceania didn't make those same mistakes but instead drew on their experience from SARS.
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Steerpike
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Post by Steerpike on Nov 3, 2020 14:24:57 GMT
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Nov 3, 2020 14:28:45 GMT
The argument has never been (for sensible folk) that the Swedish approach will avoid harm or difficult trade-offs - it's that all roads eventually lead to Rome, whether you do full lockdown or not, and that short term benefits of lockdown are counterbalanced by longer term harms. I have some sympathy with your point of view. The issue I have is the bastardisation of the evidence in support of the let it rip strategy. From very low IFR, herd immunity threshold may have already been reached in Stockholm/NYC/Lombardy, the rise in cases is down to false positives due to increased testing, C-19 deaths are just displaced, the outright denial of excess mortality statistics, we can't lockdown because of the economy,.... I could go on and on. One of the major reasons these fringe views have gained prominence in this country are our own governments scientific advisors secrecy when it comes to modelling, data, reports - let the data be shared in a transparent, timely, and complete manner to whoever wishes to use it whether that be Independent SAGE or the likes of Trump, Atlas, Ioannidis, Tegnell, Giesecke, Gupta, Heneghan, Farage, Steve Baker etc. and yet all of those things have some element of truth - IFR is lower than initially estimated - infection related immunity is higher in places more affected first time - more tests will lead to more false positives - many C-19 deaths were terminal in any case and the next thing would have caused death but for C-19 - the amount of excess mortality is arguable as it depends on your underlying assumptions and estimates (some figures show total deaths in many countries are not higher this year than many previous years) - locking down does destroy the economy, and that is directly linked to poor health And that's the problem. None of that justifies "letting it rip", or doing nothing, or saying the pandemic isn't real or having a huge health impact. All of it should be balanced and taken into account. Nevertheless, people over extrapolate in both directions to justify either the "letting it rip" versus "zero-Covid" strategies, neither of which is remotely achievable in Europe. Anyhow - we face a difficult winter, for which we should be prepared as it is going to be very tough indeed. Good luck everyone, I shall be supporting local businesses as appropriate the next two evenings as a last hurrah before 2021.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Nov 3, 2020 14:29:48 GMT
I'm not sure it is my view, although I do think we underestimate the health harms of lockdown because they aren't as visible and immediate. My view is more that - as you say - we should have full transparency as to what trade-offs we are making, and for what goals. But that sort of honest, grown up debate (and leadership) is I am afraid long gone. Apologies, I didn't mean to indict you of such manipulation! I should have stated something like "The issue I have with those pushing the let it rip strategy is the..." or some such words. And I firmly believe we underestimated the dangers that this pandemic posed right from the get-go hence why much of Europe & USA is in the mess we find ourselves in today. Many countries in Asia/Oceania didn't make those same mistakes but instead drew on their experience from SARS.Absolutely agree - and are aided by a culture that values individual freedoms less than ours.
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Post by dan1 on Nov 3, 2020 14:47:02 GMT
I have some sympathy with your point of view. The issue I have is the bastardisation of the evidence in support of the let it rip strategy. From very low IFR, herd immunity threshold may have already been reached in Stockholm/NYC/Lombardy, the rise in cases is down to false positives due to increased testing, C-19 deaths are just displaced, the outright denial of excess mortality statistics, we can't lockdown because of the economy,.... I could go on and on. One of the major reasons these fringe views have gained prominence in this country are our own governments scientific advisors secrecy when it comes to modelling, data, reports - let the data be shared in a transparent, timely, and complete manner to whoever wishes to use it whether that be Independent SAGE or the likes of Trump, Atlas, Ioannidis, Tegnell, Giesecke, Gupta, Heneghan, Farage, Steve Baker etc. and yet all of those things have some element of truth- IFR is lower than initially estimated - infection related immunity is higher in places more affected first time - more tests will lead to more false positives - many C-19 deaths were terminal in any case and the next thing would have caused death but for C-19 - the amount of excess mortality is arguable as it depends on your underlying assumptions and estimates (some figures show total deaths in many countries are not higher this year than many previous years) - locking down does destroy the economy, and that is directly linked to poor health And that's the problem. None of that justifies "letting it rip", or doing nothing, or saying the pandemic isn't real or having a huge health impact. All of it should be balanced and taken into account. Nevertheless, people over extrapolate in both directions to justify either the "letting it rip" versus "zero-Covid" strategies, neither of which is remotely achievable in Europe. Anyhow - we face a difficult winter, for which we should be prepared as it is going to be very tough indeed. Good luck everyone, I shall be supporting local businesses as appropriate the next two evenings as a last hurrah before 2021. The scientific consensus is clear just as is the case in climate change, in the dangers of smoking, the dangers of not wearing seatbelts, that the earth is indeed not flat, MMR does not cause autism, * etc etc. All of the counter arguments (and many more) were (or are being) thrown out by scientific consensus but all would have claimed to be disputed at the time. Covid-19 is no different, and those that purvey the promised uplands of normality in the presence of a deadly infectious disease are those of the fringe. A combination of scientists who pr Your evidence is tenuous at least, and a view held by the fringe who more often than not do not publish their evidence in scientific papers but those well known journals such as Barclay Bros. The Spectator, or own their own websites where they are immune to peer review. For example, you say more tests will lead to more false positives but that is a bastardisation of my point that the rise in cases was not due to testing. It's inconvenient truths that the fringe are simply unable to counter under scientific scrutiny. The correlation between fringe views, Trump, Brexit, Climate Change, Nationalism is deeply concerning yet today we have an opportunity to witness the first major pushback. For that we should all be thankful. *dare I mention Brexit economics
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Post by dan1 on Nov 3, 2020 14:51:25 GMT
Apologies, I didn't mean to indict you of such manipulation! I should have stated something like "The issue I have with those pushing the let it rip strategy is the..." or some such words. And I firmly believe we underestimated the dangers that this pandemic posed right from the get-go hence why much of Europe & USA is in the mess we find ourselves in today. Many countries in Asia/Oceania didn't make those same mistakes but instead drew on their experience from SARS.Absolutely agree - and are aided by a culture that values individual freedoms less than ours. That's simply not true. New Zealand values individual freedoms as we do here (more so some would say, women were granted the right to vote in 1893, it took us until 1918).
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Nov 3, 2020 15:15:12 GMT
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Nov 3, 2020 16:03:16 GMT
Has it really dropped to 1? Given it's a Telegraph link, my money's on "so carefully cherry-picked as to be utterly inaccurate to suit the political agenda".
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Nov 3, 2020 16:14:36 GMT
Has it really dropped to 1? That's the latest estimate based on people using the ZOE app. It's not the official one used by the government which is 1.1 to 1.3.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Nov 3, 2020 16:32:38 GMT
Has it really dropped to 1? That's the latest estimate based on people using the ZOE app. It's not the official one used by the government which is 1.1 to 1.3. TBH, I have no idea how ZOE app estimates R. The user population doesn't grow, and it relies the input of 4 mil people in the UK. Would it allow the same person to report symptoms for more than once? What if someone wanted to report server covid symptom 2nd time with the app, will it accept reporting? Unless someone get tested, how would you know if it was really COVID?
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Nov 3, 2020 16:34:29 GMT
- locking down does destroy the economy Reposting this chart from the FT plotting number of deaths vs economic hit. Sweden's economy didn't do any better than their Scandinavian neighbours, despite avoiding a full lockdown. Sweden just had more deaths. If anything, the trend in general seems to be that countries that contain the virus better also suffer a smaller economic hit.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Nov 3, 2020 16:34:48 GMT
and yet all of those things have some element of truth- IFR is lower than initially estimated - infection related immunity is higher in places more affected first time - more tests will lead to more false positives - many C-19 deaths were terminal in any case and the next thing would have caused death but for C-19 - the amount of excess mortality is arguable as it depends on your underlying assumptions and estimates (some figures show total deaths in many countries are not higher this year than many previous years) - locking down does destroy the economy, and that is directly linked to poor health And that's the problem. None of that justifies "letting it rip", or doing nothing, or saying the pandemic isn't real or having a huge health impact. All of it should be balanced and taken into account. Nevertheless, people over extrapolate in both directions to justify either the "letting it rip" versus "zero-Covid" strategies, neither of which is remotely achievable in Europe. Anyhow - we face a difficult winter, for which we should be prepared as it is going to be very tough indeed. Good luck everyone, I shall be supporting local businesses as appropriate the next two evenings as a last hurrah before 2021. The scientific consensus is clear just as is the case in climate change, in the dangers of smoking, the dangers of not wearing seatbelts, that the earth is indeed not flat, MMR does not cause autism, * etc etc. All of the counter arguments (and many more) were (or are being) thrown out by scientific consensus but all would have claimed to be disputed at the time. Covid-19 is no different, and those that purvey the promised uplands of normality in the presence of a deadly infectious disease are those of the fringe. A combination of scientists who pr Your evidence is tenuous at least, and a view held by the fringe who more often than not do not publish their evidence in scientific papers but those well known journals such as Barclay Bros. The Spectator, or own their own websites where they are immune to peer review. For example, you say more tests will lead to more false positives but that is a bastardisation of my point that the rise in cases was not due to testing. It's inconvenient truths that the fringe are simply unable to counter under scientific scrutiny. The correlation between fringe views, Trump, Brexit, Climate Change, Nationalism is deeply concerning yet today we have an opportunity to witness the first major pushback. For that we should all be thankful. *dare I mention Brexit economics Yeah you're probably right. I'm just trying to find balance, and I don't think it is quite as clearcut as climate change, MMR etc.
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Post by dan1 on Nov 3, 2020 16:38:26 GMT
The scientific consensus is clear just as is the case in climate change, in the dangers of smoking, the dangers of not wearing seatbelts, that the earth is indeed not flat, MMR does not cause autism, * etc etc. All of the counter arguments (and many more) were (or are being) thrown out by scientific consensus but all would have claimed to be disputed at the time. Covid-19 is no different, and those that purvey the promised uplands of normality in the presence of a deadly infectious disease are those of the fringe. A combination of scientists who pr Your evidence is tenuous at least, and a view held by the fringe who more often than not do not publish their evidence in scientific papers but those well known journals such as Barclay Bros. The Spectator, or own their own websites where they are immune to peer review. For example, you say more tests will lead to more false positives but that is a bastardisation of my point that the rise in cases was not due to testing. It's inconvenient truths that the fringe are simply unable to counter under scientific scrutiny. The correlation between fringe views, Trump, Brexit, Climate Change, Nationalism is deeply concerning yet today we have an opportunity to witness the first major pushback. For that we should all be thankful. *dare I mention Brexit economics Yeah you're probably right. I'm just trying to find balance, and I don't think it is quite as clearcut as climate change, MMR etc. I probably shouldn't go to extremes, it's just lazy of me. However, it does seem to be the modus operandi in these divided times.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Nov 3, 2020 16:40:14 GMT
Absolutely agree - and are aided by a culture that values individual freedoms less than ours. That's simply not true. New Zealand values individual freedoms as we do here (more so some would say, women were granted the right to vote in 1893, it took us until 1918). New Zealand is the geographical outlier that was lucky and closed its borders in time. Many Asian countries did things that you could never do in the West - South Korea checked phones, where you spent money in your bank accounts etc to track cases, Hong Kong forced people into quarantine camps or to wear tags, and China basically monitors you everywhere. There IS a balance between civil liberties and effective tracking, it is easier if you take a more authoritarian approach.
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