IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Nov 3, 2020 16:47:06 GMT
Absolutely agree - and are aided by a culture that values individual freedoms less than ours.
That's a bit unfair @ifisacava.
Sure, in the case of China, you certainly have a valid point.
But for Korea and Japan to take two examples there certainly remains plentiful valuation of individual freedoms.
With places like Korea and Japan you have: - Strong family, community and workplace ties leads to a general desire to not do harm to others. The self-centered selfishness and lack of consideration for others seen in the West is substancially less prevalent in the East.
- An existing culture of wearing facemasks during cold/flu season.
The combination of the two are likely what are keeping things under control. As well as, as dan1 as said, prior experience of SARS.
Or if you want a completely different frame of reference, the Africans have experience with Ebola and TB. That is why COVID has not spiralled out of control in Africa despite the more limited healthcare provisions.
Its a case of taking it seriously and not doing like some anti-lockdowners are doing and comparing short-term lockdowns to the imposition of dictatorships, or referring to the wearing of masks as wearing muzzles.
My South Korean friend told me that they check your phone and bank accounts and cards to see if you have been in areas where there have been cases (note you don't have an opt out on that) and they publish details publicly of people who have been infected so your health is basically no longer a private matter. So I don't think it is just China - though I agree a bit lazy of me to generalise as if all Asian countries are the same. And I also agree the culture of face masks, collectivism etc helps a bit - so lazy of me to just paint it as individual freedoms. What I really meant is that there are aspects of Asian cultures that help in managing a pandemic, which added on to their previous experiences from SARS and hence rapid action.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Nov 3, 2020 16:53:36 GMT
- locking down does destroy the economy Reposting this chart from the FT plotting number of deaths vs economic hit. Sweden's economy didn't do any better than their Scandinavian neighbours, despite avoiding a full lockdown. Sweden just had more deaths. If anything, the trend in general seems to be that countries that contain the virus better also suffer a smaller economic hit. Too early to say would be the argument. Many of the countries containing the virus well in the first wave (eg Eastern Europe) are doing pretty badly now. Whether or not it is justified or effective, pretty difficult to argue that lockdown doesn't harm the economy though, surely?
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Nov 3, 2020 17:26:31 GMT
Reposting this chart from the FT plotting number of deaths vs economic hit. Sweden's economy didn't do any better than their Scandinavian neighbours, despite avoiding a full lockdown. Sweden just had more deaths. If anything, the trend in general seems to be that countries that contain the virus better also suffer a smaller economic hit. Too early to say would be the argument. Many of the countries containing the virus well in the first wave (eg Eastern Europe) are doing pretty badly now. Whether or not it is justified or effective, pretty difficult to argue that lockdown doesn't harm the economy though, surely? Sure, lockdowns do harm the economy. So do other restrictions. The virus spreading with no restrictions would also harm the economy. Even the annual flu does harm the economy. So yes it's about what's the most effective approach to limit the damage to the economy and saving lives. What that chart shows is that there isn't really a tradeoff between those two goals.
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Post by bernythedolt on Nov 3, 2020 17:45:50 GMT
Absolutely agree - and are aided by a culture that values individual freedoms less than ours.
[...]
Or if you want a completely different frame of reference, the Africans have experience with Ebola and TB. That is why COVID has not spiralled out of control in Africa despite the more limited healthcare provisions. [...] I suspect there's more to it than previous experience with Ebola and TB though, especially as most of Africa remains untouched by Ebola (and, to a lesser degree, TB). Isn't it more likely because life expectancy is far lower in Africa, so they tend to have died of something else (AIDS, TB, malaria...) before reaching an age where lungs and immune system become seriously compromisable by Covid? And then there's the hotter climate which supposedly keeps Covid down?
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Nov 3, 2020 18:28:33 GMT
[...]
Or if you want a completely different frame of reference, the Africans have experience with Ebola and TB. That is why COVID has not spiralled out of control in Africa despite the more limited healthcare provisions. [...] I suspect there's more to it than previous experience with Ebola and TB though, especially as most of Africa remains untouched by Ebola (and, to a lesser degree, TB). Isn't it more likely because life expectancy is far lower in Africa, so they tend to have died of something else (AIDS, TB, malaria...) before reaching an age where lungs and immune system become seriously compromisable by Covid? And then there's the hotter climate which supposedly keeps Covid down? Life expectancies at the upper end of the list of African countries is not so very far from the lower end of the EU's list, let alone Europe - or, indeed, America. As for what's keeping life expectancy down in most African countries, it's as much the prosaic stuff like crappy access to health care and infant mortality as any of the big-ticket headliners. Have a read of this, as to why Africa's having fewer fatalities per case: www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-54418613
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Nov 3, 2020 18:45:56 GMT
The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.
Could this be the same Tony Blair who broke Covid regulations by not isolating properly on his recent return from the US? Wasn't he just testing his eyesight? I believe he went for a massage
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Post by bernythedolt on Nov 3, 2020 18:57:27 GMT
I suspect there's more to it than previous experience with Ebola and TB though, especially as most of Africa remains untouched by Ebola (and, to a lesser degree, TB). Isn't it more likely because life expectancy is far lower in Africa, so they tend to have died of something else (AIDS, TB, malaria...) before reaching an age where lungs and immune system become seriously compromisable by Covid? And then there's the hotter climate which supposedly keeps Covid down? Life expectancies at the upper end of the list of African countries is not so very far from the lower end of the EU's list, let alone Europe - or, indeed, America. As for what's keeping life expectancy down in most African countries, it's as much the prosaic stuff like crappy access to health care and infant mortality as any of the big-ticket headliners. Have a read of this, as to why Africa's having fewer fatalities per case: www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-54418613Thanks, that article expresses the point more succinctly than I managed: "...about 91% of Covid-19 infection in sub-Saharan Africa are among people below 60 years and over 80% are asymptomatic," said the World Health Organization (WHO). It also highlights the favourable climate, as well as a significant factor I hadn't considered... the much lower incidence of travel.
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Post by bracknellboy on Nov 3, 2020 19:06:39 GMT
Absolutely agree - and are aided by a culture that values individual freedoms less than ours.
That's a bit unfair @ifisacava.
Sure, in the case of China, you certainly have a valid point.
But for Korea and Japan to take two examples there certainly remains plentiful valuation of individual freedoms.
With places like Korea and Japan you have: - Strong family, community and workplace ties leads to a general desire to not do harm to others. The self-centered selfishness and lack of consideration for others seen in the West is substancially less prevalent in the East.
- An existing culture of wearing facemasks during cold/flu season.
The combination of the two are likely what are keeping things under control. As well as, as dan1 as said, prior experience of SARS....
Its a case of taking it seriously and not doing like some anti-lockdowners are doing and comparing short-term lockdowns to the imposition of dictatorships, or referring to the wearing of masks as wearing muzzles.
This. And this. I was thinking about the Western vs. SE Asian experience yesterday evening, as one does. There is - I believe - an element of "personal freedom" vs less importance on personal freedom. But that is by no means the whole story. Outside of the China/Hong Kong, you would probably throw into the mix Singapore as well as South Korea. Both have (or certainly had, excepting Singapore's foreign workers housed in packed accomodation situations) a relatively "good" pandemic (so far). As I understand it........Singapore probably has the highest level of control and tracking of population, and also a high degree of adherence to what "the state" says. SK has a lower but still relatively high degree of "sacrifice" of individual privacy. Both are significant contributors to being able to keep an infectious disease under control. Japan is a different ball game. However what they all have is a set of values less seen in the West, but esp. likes of UK and US: sense of social responsibility/responsibility to wider society, respect for elders and for family, probably a greater respect even in Japan for "authority". And either having been hit by or in region hit by SARS. I think all of those are probably very significant factors.
But one's thoughts then turn to those western cultures that also put a high value on the family, such as Spain and Italy. Have they had a relatively bad pandemic precisely because they put a high focus on their elder relatives and the wider family, while not having other aspects of behaviour of e.g. the younger members constrained by other values. So still have the big family gatherings with the elderly relatives after Jose has been out at a party with is mates ?
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Nov 3, 2020 19:19:15 GMT
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Post by dan1 on Nov 4, 2020 16:58:46 GMT
A wide-ranging, and rare, interview with Chris Whitty... The BMJ interview: Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer, on covid-19www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4235I'll resist the temptation to post quotes and put my own spin on it, it's probably best read in its entirety.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Nov 4, 2020 17:42:56 GMT
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Nov 5, 2020 22:21:47 GMT
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Nov 5, 2020 22:39:29 GMT
Its surely too soon to know. The question is never have infections gone up or down but are they significantly more/less than they otherwise would be. I'm no fan of lockdown by the way.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Nov 6, 2020 13:04:09 GMT
Wales' Health Minister Vaughan Gething is giving a briefing as the nation prepares to enter the final weekend of its two-week firebreak lockdown. He said "confirmed cases and deaths are rising markedly in Wales".
And in his very next breath he says:
Vaughan Gething is asked if all areas of Wales are coming out of its firebreak lockdown on Monday, given the variance in rates of coronavirus across the country.
He confirms the answer is yes
So much for the effectiveness of a 2 week lockdown as demanded by Keir Starmer and Andy Burnham
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Nov 6, 2020 20:42:39 GMT
There were 120,000 cases in USA yesterday, with infections rising at about 20% per week:
- if the current rate of increase continues, there will be a daily rate of 900k cases by the time JB takes over
- at 25% increase a week it will be 1.4m cases a day
- at 30% it will be 2.1m cases a day
With no signs that the fat boy has any interest in taking action to reduce the rate it is sobering times if you live on the other side of the pond (unless you are president and have your own private health care team)
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