cb25
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Post by cb25 on Mar 5, 2020 17:38:34 GMT
Diagram here showing how Covid19 is mutating (I assume in minor ways). I have no idea what it means in terms of impact on us.
BBC reports "Patient with underlying health conditions becomes first person with coronavirus to die in the UK"
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one21
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Post by one21 on Mar 5, 2020 17:44:22 GMT
Agree very well thought out and considered responses! Jeremy Hunt’s final question – “People have talked about the possibility of Parliament being shut down, could you foresee such a time as MP’s could be regarded as Super Spreaders?” Chris Whitty –“I’m sure only Super Spreaders of wisdom and great acumen ha ha....” Whitty by name witty by nature! Brilliant.
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Post by bracknellboy on Mar 5, 2020 18:11:31 GMT
BBC reports "Patient with underlying health conditions becomes first person with coronavirus to die in the UK" Yes, at the Royal Berkshire up the road. I'd like to just reassure or disappoint people that I am still around.
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michaelc
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Say No To T.D.S.
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Post by michaelc on Mar 5, 2020 18:42:18 GMT
BBC reports "Patient with underlying health conditions becomes first person with coronavirus to die in the UK" Yes, at the Royal Berkshire up the road. I'd like to just reassure or disappoint people that I am still around. Same here (on both counts).
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Mar 5, 2020 20:57:01 GMT
Why is everyone panicking so much, I looked up the flu virus and that takes about 400,000 lives a year world wide, why don't we all panic about that every year? I know this corona virus is new and may have unexpected consequences but really!
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easylender
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Post by easylender on Mar 5, 2020 20:59:39 GMT
Why is everyone panicking so much, I looked up the flu virus and that takes about 400,000 lives a year world wide, why don't we all panic about that every year? I know this corona virus is new and may have unexpected consequences but really! Well, for a start because the flu virus has a death rate of 0.1%, and covid-19 has a death rate of 3.4%. Do the maths.
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Post by mrclondon on Mar 5, 2020 22:18:16 GMT
Why is everyone panicking so much, I looked up the flu virus and that takes about 400,000 lives a year world wide, why don't we all panic about that every year? I know this corona virus is new and may have unexpected consequences but really! The flu has mitigation available (i.e. vaccine) and is well known (i.e. its seasonality). The early attempts to develop a vaccine for SARS were generally deemed failures at animal testing stage ... but it quickly died out and no major effort to develop a vaccine was made (so little research to build on now). Given this virus is closely related to SARS there is no guarantee that a vaccine can be developed ... and even if an early breakthrough is made it will be autumn 2021 before its available in quantity for the general population.
If no vaccine is available for the new virus before it spreads gobally then we could be looking at 160 million deaths (at 60% penetration, 3.4% CFR) worldwide, 1.4 million in the UK.
There are too many unknowns at present to be complacent. The slowdown in China has only been achieved by locking down half their population, something very difficult to do anywhere else than North Korea (Media have reported on quarantine violations in Italy, and in US where a healthcare worker went to a seminar at the local university's business school) There is a strong likelihood that as soon as they relax the containment in China the contagion will increase once more. (Assuming their figures as they stand mean anything which is doubtful). Then, it seems possible to be reinfected just days/weeks after being cured which points to the difficulties of developing a vaccine, and the mortality rate on 2nd infection could be a major issue (the limited evidence suggest 2nd infections can quickly generate cytokine storms which are generally assumed to have high mortality)
Finally, the few accounts from the survivors of the more serious cases (even those that are young and healthy) make for utterly frightening reading. I had a "mild" dose of the H1N1 swine flu in 2009, and that was bad enough (I have longstanding respiratory issues) but I was back to a semi-functioning person within a few days. Take a look at the recovery stats for this new virus - many are still ill weeks after catching it ... it takes 3 weeks or more to die.
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scc
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Post by scc on Mar 6, 2020 6:22:28 GMT
Why is everyone panicking so much, I looked up the flu virus and that takes about 400,000 lives a year world wide, why don't we all panic about that every year? I know this corona virus is new and may have unexpected consequences but really! I have some sympathy with your pov - and I'm fully aware of all of the stats and their meaning. Yes, this wouldn't be a pleasant death and it would feel untimely but there are worse ways to go. But realistically, beyond taking some simple precautions financially and hygiene wise, there is little the average person can do to avoid it so why worry? I suspect it is because we are generally in denial that we will get sick/old and die one day - and that most of our day to day concerns are really just a convenient shared fiction that is fairly meaningless when it comes down do it. For example, I've heard people worrying for their 90+ year old relatives with multiple diseases. It's understandable, but is it completely unexpected that they will die eventually?
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kaya
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Post by kaya on Mar 6, 2020 7:45:15 GMT
Why is everyone panicking so much, I looked up the flu virus and that takes about 400,000 lives a year world wide, why don't we all panic about that every year? I know this corona virus is new and may have unexpected consequences but really! Spot on. We are seeing fear mongering at its worst, driven by a deliberate media frenzy, talking this up and hammering us constantly. China has 'used' this to bring about a system of totalitarian control over vast numbers of people, in a country already heavily controlled by its 'credit score' system. We might worry as to what liberties we might we expected to sacrifice 'for our own health and safety'. Governments do not want to help us. They want to control us. Fear is their chosen method.
Now where did I put my tinfoil hat... 
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Mar 6, 2020 8:56:28 GMT
Why is everyone panicking so much, I looked up the flu virus and that takes about 400,000 lives a year world wide, why don't we all panic about that every year? I know this corona virus is new and may have unexpected consequences but really! Based on the figures from China (which I accept may be under-reported), I'm feeling quite positive about Covid19. To date, China has had 'only' 80,555 cases with 2,931 deaths (source John Hopkins dashboard) and that's from a population of 1.4billion people and they're a couple of months into the scenario. If - and yes, this is a massive 'if' - the UK, population 66million, followed the same trajectory, we'd expected around 3,800 cases with 138 deaths at the same stage.
I think a big part of the problem in the UK is that the government stated 80% of the population might catch the virus as a 'reasonable worst case' scenario with 1% fatality rate, but parts of the media took the 80% figure as what was necessarily going to happen. I checked in on BBC2's Newsnight last night to see what they were covering and the lead-in summary seemed to be 'a person has died in the UK from Covid19, this is a massive game changer'. What, one person dies and this is a game changer??? I thought Brits were supposed to be all 'stiff upper lip, stay calm and carry on, only Johnny Foreigner panics'. Given how the media are treating this first death, one can only guess where they'll be if/when we get a significant number of deaths.
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Post by southseacompany on Mar 6, 2020 9:23:34 GMT
Why is everyone panicking so much, I looked up the flu virus and that takes about 400,000 lives a year world wide, why don't we all panic about that every year? I know this corona virus is new and may have unexpected consequences but really! Others have pointed out why the flu is not a good point of comparison. However, I don't think most people are panicking. Most comments I've heard are quite level-headed (though I don't watch TV so perhaps I've avoided some excesses). However, even if you remain indifferent to the small medical risk to your family, you will still be affected by the pandemic's effect on some things, particularly the economy. Of course, much more disruption has been caused by containment measures than the actual medical complications of the virus. To quote Kung Fu Panda (paraphrasing Jean de La Fontaine), One often meets his destiny on the road he takes to avoid it. Models have long predicted that containment measures would fail, so that shouldn't have been a huge surprise. They predict ongoing community spread despite attempts to slow it down, so it's only prudent to prepare for that. If you stay calm, other people's panic can also be an opportunity. For example, the stock market is certainly cheaper now than a month ago. Also, I'm pretty sure there will soon be some sweet deals available for cruises and flights to Asia.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Mar 6, 2020 9:24:22 GMT
I’m seriously pissed off with the media. The coronavirus hype is pathetic. I feel sorry for those who have convinced themselves that this is a doomsday scenario.
The one death in England sounds like they were in their last year of life anyway.
Newsflash: almost everybody is going to be fine.
I’m not worried about supply chains either. Once it is clear that containment is not possible might as well get back to business as usual.
Time for me to stop watching the news again.
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duck
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Post by duck on Mar 6, 2020 9:29:12 GMT
I did hear an expert say earlier today
Can anybody enlighten me as to what a "non significant mortality impact" is?
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Mar 6, 2020 9:31:03 GMT
Why is everyone panicking so much, I looked up the flu virus and that takes about 400,000 lives a year world wide, why don't we all panic about that every year? I know this corona virus is new and may have unexpected consequences but really! Others have pointed out why the flu is not a good point of comparison. However, I don't think most people are panicking. Most comments I've heard are quite level-headed (though I don't watch TV so perhaps I've avoided some excesses). However, even if you remain indifferent to the small medical risk to your family, you will still be affected by the pandemic's effect on some things, particularly the economy. Of course, much more disruption has been caused by containment measures than the actual medical complications of the virus. To quote Kung Fu Panda (paraphrasing Jean de La Fontaine), One often meets his destiny on the road he takes to avoid it. Models have long predicted that containment measures would fail, so that shouldn't have been a huge surprise. They predict ongoing community spread despite attempts to slow it down, so it's only prudent to prepare for that. If you stay calm, other people's panic can also be an opportunity. For example, the stock market is certainly cheaper now than a month ago. Also, I'm pretty sure there will soon be some sweet deals available for cruises and flights to Asia. Of all the things I'd be selling, it's anything to do with cruise ships.
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m2btj
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Post by m2btj on Mar 6, 2020 9:41:34 GMT
Why is everyone panicking so much, I looked up the flu virus and that takes about 400,000 lives a year world wide, why don't we all panic about that every year? I know this corona virus is new and may have unexpected consequences but really! Panic & sensationalism creates great headlines & the press love a good story. Irresponsible storytelling is encouraging people to panic & act irrationally. Supermarket shelves are being stripped of essentials after the press publishes photos of empty supermarket shelves...library photos to boot! To date an elderly lady in her mid 70's has died after being previously treated for long term chronic health conditions. The long term effect of Corona will be a weakened global economy & large scale job losses.
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