Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Nov 23, 2020 15:26:58 GMT
UK population = 66 million.
That's another £66 Billion to add to the national debt.
Uhh ?
Huh ? We'll have spent something like £400 billion this year on the economic impact. I wouldn't be surprised if that doubled by the time the pandemic wanes and I also wouldn't be surprised if there was a net gain from accelerating vaccine uptake. Limit it to adults if you like, £50 billion odd. Initially at least the NHS is not going to be able to cope with the numbers wanting the vaccine as soon as possible, that's why it will be rolled out in stages. I would only worry about the ones who are reluctant once the initial surge is dealt with. Mind you if they wanted to pay me I wouldn't mind, but I'll be there as soon as they call my number anyway.
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Post by dan1 on Nov 23, 2020 15:41:58 GMT
As part of economic stimulus why not incentivise vaccine uptake? Offer each individual, say, £1k to have the vaccine to get vaccination rates up and cash back into the economy. I'm not sure it fits in the UK with stimulus aimed primarily at businesses and asset holders rather than individuals. I think I favour the stick rather than the carrot. How about anyone not havng the vaccine gets 5% added to their marginal tax rate. I think only around a half of adults pay income tax and I guess a not insubstantial portion of those that do pay don't pay very much (i.e. not much incentive). Maybe reduce their personal allowance instead?
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Nov 23, 2020 15:46:06 GMT
Huh ? We'll have spent something like £400 billion this year on the economic impact. I wouldn't be surprised if that doubled by the time the pandemic wanes and I also wouldn't be surprised if there was a net gain from accelerating vaccine uptake. Limit it to adults if you like, £50 billion odd. Initially at least the NHS is not going to be able to cope with the numbers wanting the vaccine as soon as possible, that's why it will be rolled out in stages. I would only worry about the ones who are reluctant once the initial surge is dealt with. Mind you if they wanted to pay me I wouldn't mind, but I'll be there as soon as they call my number anyway. Quite. People refusing the vaccine is not the problem at this stage, the bottleneck is manufacturing and distributing enough doses. Even over time if say 20% of the population refuse the vaccine that may not be an issue. It could be made mandatory for some categories though, like health workers.
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Mike
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Post by Mike on Nov 23, 2020 15:57:40 GMT
It could be made mandatory for some categories though, like health workers. My wife (a doctor) & her colleagues are (by some way) the most sceptical group I know of the vaccine and the speed it has been developed and tested. Of course they are not "anti-vaxx" in general, but it does not fill me with confidence (without them, I would be more than happy to have it - but can't deny I'm far from encouraged by their attitude).
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Nov 23, 2020 16:37:21 GMT
It could be made mandatory for some categories though, like health workers. My wife (a doctor) & her colleagues are (by some way) the most sceptical group I know of the vaccine and the speed it has been developed and tested. Of course they are not "anti-vaxx" in general, but it does not fill me with confidence (without them, I would be more than happy to have it - but can't deny I'm far from encouraged by their attitude). What are their concerns specifically, given e.g. these explanations about the speed? Obviously no vaccine has actually been approved yet, there are still some checks to be done.
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Mike
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Post by Mike on Nov 23, 2020 17:14:28 GMT
My wife (a doctor) & her colleagues are (by some way) the most sceptical group I know of the vaccine and the speed it has been developed and tested. Of course they are not "anti-vaxx" in general, but it does not fill me with confidence (without them, I would be more than happy to have it - but can't deny I'm far from encouraged by their attitude). What are their concerns specifically, given e.g. these explanations about the speed? Obviously no vaccine has actually been approved yet, there are still some checks to be done. It's important to note that they're doctors, not scientists - so their apprehension is not based on weeks or monhts of studying the processes involved. One of the primary causes of their concern is that its not uncommon for negative sides to only come to light a year or two after administration of new drugs (whatever they may be) and regardless of the rigor that has been employed for this vacine, you cannot buy that time and know what impact there could be at +1y. Of course, they see a lot more death than the average person and more than half of them have tested positive at some stage for either covid or the antibody - their general attitude to covid, life, and death is probably not the same because of those things.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Nov 23, 2020 17:29:34 GMT
...As part of economic stimulus why not incentivise vaccine uptake? Offer each individual, s ay, £1k to have the vaccine to get vaccination rates up and cash back into the economy. I'm not sure it fits in the UK with stimulus aimed primarily at businesses and asset holders rather than individuals. UK population = 66 million.
That's another £66 Billion to add to the national debt.
Uhh ?
www.bbc.com/news/amp/health-55040635100 million does for the whole UK?
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Nov 23, 2020 17:43:00 GMT
100m doses of Oxford/AstraZeneca (1.5 per person) have been pre-ordered plus 40m BioNTech/Pfizer (2 per person) plus a last-minute deal for 5m Moderna (2 per person). So that's 89.5m people vaccinated, IF everything is delivered and there's no wastage. Population of the UK is currently about 66.7m people, so there's about 35% contingency.
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Nov 23, 2020 17:54:46 GMT
What are their concerns specifically, given e.g. these explanations about the speed? Obviously no vaccine has actually been approved yet, there are still some checks to be done. It's important to note that they're doctors, not scientists - so their apprehension is not based on weeks or monhts of studying the processes involved. One of the primary causes of their concern is that its not uncommon for negative sides to only come to light a year or two after administration of new drugs (whatever they may be) and regardless of the rigor that has been employed for this vacine, you cannot buy that time and know what impact there could be at +1y. Of course, they see a lot more death than the average person and more than half of them have tested positive at some stage for either covid or the antibody - their general attitude to covid, life, and death is probably not the same because of those things. It's true that it's impossible to know for sure what side effects a vaccine may cause be in 1 or 2 years without waiting that amount of time, but it's also impossible to know for sure what are the long term effects of Covid-19 since it's a new virus. Even just between those two risks I'd rather take an (approved) vaccine.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Nov 23, 2020 17:56:09 GMT
It's important to note that they're doctors, not scientists - so their apprehension is not based on weeks or monhts of studying the processes involved. One of the primary causes of their concern is that its not uncommon for negative sides to only come to light a year or two after administration of new drugs (whatever they may be) and regardless of the rigor that has been employed for this vacine, you cannot buy that time and know what impact there could be at +1y. Of course, they see a lot more death than the average person and more than half of them have tested positive at some stage for either covid or the antibody - their general attitude to covid, life, and death is probably not the same because of those things. It's true that it's impossible to know for sure what side effects a vaccine may cause be in 1 or 2 years without waiting that amount of time, but it's also impossible to know for sure what are the long term effects of Covid-19 since it's a new virus. Even just between those two risks I'd rather take an (approved) vaccine. If they're in General Practice, I'd have thought they would be seeing a lot of long-Covid already.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Nov 23, 2020 18:05:00 GMT
It's true that it's impossible to know for sure what side effects a vaccine may cause be in 1 or 2 years without waiting that amount of time, but it's also impossible to know for sure what are the long term effects of Covid-19 since it's a new virus. Even just between those two risks I'd rather take an (approved) vaccine. If they're in General Practice, I'd have thought they would be seeing a lot of long-Covid already. They have been seeing a lot of long covid for many many years, well before the pandemic even began - it was just called something else then.
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Nov 23, 2020 18:06:58 GMT
100m doses of Oxford/AstraZeneca (1.5 per person) have been pre-ordered plus 40m BioNTech/Pfizer (2 per person) plus a last-minute deal for 5m Moderna (2 per person). So that's 89.5m people vaccinated, IF everything is delivered and there's no wastage. Population of the UK is currently about 66.7m people, so there's about 35% contingency. Note that only adults will be vaccinated, so it's closer to 50M people. Vaccines haven't even been tested in under 18s.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Nov 23, 2020 18:11:27 GMT
100m doses of Oxford/AstraZeneca (1.5 per person) have been pre-ordered plus 40m BioNTech/Pfizer (2 per person) plus a last-minute deal for 5m Moderna (2 per person). So that's 89.5m people vaccinated, IF everything is delivered and there's no wastage. Population of the UK is currently about 66.7m people, so there's about 35% contingency. You need to add a few more on for the UK Crown Dependencies and British Overseas Territories. I don't know if Covid has reached the Falklands yet, but I assume we will be supplying them with a few doses.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Nov 23, 2020 19:29:11 GMT
Is the AZN news really good news? Well it obviously could have been a lot worse. From what I understand 70% is easily enough to control the disease if most people take it.
But as an individual, it doesn't help that much if you need to travel to other parts where the population haven't been vaccinated. I know I would like to have the one that has the highest efficacy rate. 95% multipliplied by the 99.X % for my age bracket seems like a good bet. 70% is better than nothing (individually/selfishly speaking) but I wouldn't feel anything like immune.
And no doubt its the Oxford one that we will get because thats the one we've bought most of. Begs the question, will other versions be able at the chemist for a few quid more? I think Oxford was $5 and the pfzer/mopderna more like ten times that figure. Thats buying millions of them so no doubt it be will be offered (if it is at all) for more like £50-£100 would be my guess.
On another topic, has anyone crunched the headline stats coming from the trials? To make it easy, if say 20,000 are given the placebo and the same number a vaccine then when the first 100 become infected we find that 5 had the vaccine and 95 had the placebo. What is the probability that the actual efficay rate is say less than 80% or say greater than 99%? Some years ago I'd have tackled that question but now when I really want to know the answer it would take me too long.... If anyone does take up the challenge, feel free to use the actual numbers and whatever assumptions you think are reasonable.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Nov 23, 2020 19:36:34 GMT
If they're in General Practice, I'd have thought they would be seeing a lot of long-Covid already. They have been seeing a lot of long covid for many many years, well before the pandemic even began - it was just called something else then. How can they be seeing long covid before covid? I understand other viruses or illnesses do have longer term problems is that what you mean?
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