IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Mar 6, 2020 14:38:12 GMT
The Diamond Princess suggest that half of people infected are asymptomatic, so in the real world those rates are probably halved as only those with symptoms are likely to be tested. To be fair, so would the rates for 'flu that we are comparing to. If it were 0.9%, not sure I'd be up for a game of "we need 111 fit people, ages 60-69, one of which we'll kill, the only prize for the others is to go on living (for now)" 
However, clearly only affects those with Coronavirus and even Italy - worst affected country in Europe - has 99.99% unaffected according to current figures, though - as IFISAcava mentions - there may be a lot of uncounted cases. Funny, that seems to be the offer to retired doctors.
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Post by bracknellboy on Mar 6, 2020 14:42:13 GMT
For most people (i.e. those under age 70 and healthy), the disease is probably not particularly deadly? Not so sure about that, e.g. this quotes 3.6% mortality rate for ages 60-69. Deadly enough. so if you are 80+, male and have cardio vascular disease, you probably don't give a s*** what the markets are doing right now.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Mar 6, 2020 14:50:28 GMT
If it were 0.9%, not sure I'd be up for a game of "we need 111 fit people, ages 60-69, one of which we'll kill, the only prize for the others is to go on living (for now)"
However, clearly only affects those with Coronavirus and even Italy - worst affected country in Europe - has 99.99% unaffected according to current figures, though - as IFISAcava mentions - there may be a lot of uncounted cases. Funny, that seems to be the offer to retired doctors. They may also get the 'bonus' offer of paying loads more tax.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Mar 6, 2020 16:22:08 GMT
Sky news reports "Coronavirus: Second person in UK dies from infection. The man was understood to be in his late 80s, had underlying health conditions and died at Milton Keynes Hospital."
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Godanubis
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Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
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Post by Godanubis on Mar 6, 2020 16:23:58 GMT
Funny, that seems to be the offer to retired doctors. They may also get the 'bonus' offer of paying loads more tax. After 40+ years in NHS I don’t think I could be tempted back. I was in the front line of a physical war (Gulf) Where the enemy was obviousl. I have no wish to fight an occult enemy. One good thing the functioning alcoholics will be at work with their large lemon scented (flavoured) “Hand Sanitiser “ by their side 
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Mar 6, 2020 16:28:36 GMT
I'm still off to Tenerife next week (my hotel is about 2 miles from the one in lockdown) and if I feel ill on my return I will self isolate. However I am a bit concerned if I will be allowed to continue as an active member of the forum, as I have heard that viruses can be passed on by computers.
Well I managed to make it to Tenerife, where the sun is shining and the beer is cold and cheap. Everything is as normal, except for a short length of footway past the H10 hotel (the one in lockdown) which is closed. They say that 6 people in the hotel have tested positive, 5 Italians brought the virus with them and one English lady has contracted the virus after close contact with the 5 (not clear if they had lunch together or some other form of contact).
Most surreal moment of the holiday was when the last 2 passengers boarded the plane at gatwick. They were a middle aged couple, both wearing masks (even though the gent had a beard).
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Mar 6, 2020 16:51:36 GMT
The Diamond Princess suggest that half of people infected are asymptomatic, so in the real world those rates are probably halved as only those with symptoms are likely to be tested. To be fair, so would the rates for 'flu that we are comparing to. If it were 0.9%, not sure I'd be up for a game of "we need 111 fit people, ages 60-69, one of which we'll kill, the only prize for the others is to go on living (for now)"
However, clearly only affects those with Coronavirus and even Italy - worst affected country in Europe - has 99.99% unaffected according to current figures, though - as IFISAcava mentions - there may be a lot of uncounted cases. It won't be one of the 111 fit people, it will be 2 that weren't fit out of the next 111.
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Post by southseacompany on Mar 6, 2020 17:16:35 GMT
This might be veering too far outside the main topic, but anyway, the recent high volatility caused by covid-related news is making options very expensive. I've mentioned my short position in Hilton before. I've just written put options for HLT, expiring in two weeks, at a strike 6% below current price, for a premium of 5% of the price. In other words, someone is willing to pay 5% of their investment to buy insurance against declines larger than 6% within the next two weeks. Think about the annualized cost of this insurance! Feels like these conditions cannot possibly be sustained for long.
Usual disclaimer: different people, different strategies, not for everyone. BTW, passive investors can also participate in option premium selling via "BuyWrite ETFs" like PBP.
(Ticker symbols above refer to US markets.)
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Mar 6, 2020 18:31:38 GMT
This might be veering too far outside the main topic, but anyway, the recent high volatility caused by covid-related news is making options very expensive. I've mentioned my short position in Hilton before. I've just written put options for HLT, expiring in two weeks, at a strike 6% below current price, for a premium of 5% of the price. In other words, someone is willing to pay 5% of their investment to buy insurance against declines larger than 6% within the next two weeks. Think about the annualized cost of this insurance! Feels like these conditions cannot possibly be sustained for long. Usual disclaimer: different people, different strategies, not for everyone. BTW, passive investors can also participate in option premium selling via "BuyWrite ETFs" like PBP. (Ticker symbols above refer to US markets.) In the current climate I would think that airlines and hotels are headed for the bumpiest ride
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Mar 6, 2020 18:39:07 GMT
This might be veering too far outside the main topic, but anyway, the recent high volatility caused by covid-related news is making options very expensive. I've mentioned my short position in Hilton before. I've just written put options for HLT, expiring in two weeks, at a strike 6% below current price, for a premium of 5% of the price. In other words, someone is willing to pay 5% of their investment to buy insurance against declines larger than 6% within the next two weeks. Think about the annualized cost of this insurance! Feels like these conditions cannot possibly be sustained for long. Usual disclaimer: different people, different strategies, not for everyone. BTW, passive investors can also participate in option premium selling via "BuyWrite ETFs" like PBP. (Ticker symbols above refer to US markets.) In the current climate I would think that airlines and hotels are headed for the bumpiest ride Scottish loganair is picking up some of the business that Flybe has just left - the strong feast on the carcass of the weak and feeble Which airlines have a strong balance sheet & business to go when this dust settles
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Mar 6, 2020 18:46:12 GMT
In the current climate I would think that airlines and hotels are headed for the bumpiest ride Scottish loganair is picking up some of the business that Flybe has just left - the strong feast on the carcass of the weak and feeble Which airlines have a strong balance sheet & business to go when this dust settles
Will be suprised to see them in Newquay any time soon.
I feel particularly sad for Flybe cabin crew. The business has been teetering on the edge for a while, and now must be the worst possible time to find yourself jobless.
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Post by wiseclerk on Mar 6, 2020 19:43:18 GMT
US seems to have seriously botched planning for testing capacity
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Mar 6, 2020 20:53:40 GMT
In the current climate I would think that airlines and hotels are headed for the bumpiest ride From my recent practical experiences, I would say its a mixed bag. On the postiive side, I recently completed a number of flights. The cabins were surprisingly full, if not at capacity. My hunch is that it will be the LCCs who will be the worst affected, whilst the old-school incumbents will ride the storm. On the hotel side, yes. I stayed in a few hotels (not in a high-risk areas). One hotel in particular was noticeably quiet and the sales manager confirmed bookings were down (both rooms and events). As a customer of course, its a lovely experience, you get treated like a king because staff who are normally over-stretched, harassed and stressed suddenly have a lot of time on their hands. I experienced everything from proactive laundry collections (I've never before had someone proactively come to my room every morning offering laundry service), to being dealt with directly by management everywhere from front-desk to restaurant, genuinely smiling all the time and even jokingly calling you their favourite customer. Where were you exactly and are you still fit? I'm pretty sure most places are safe particularly if you are not in the big risk groups.
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michaelc
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Say No To T.D.S.
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Post by michaelc on Mar 6, 2020 21:01:16 GMT
US seems to have seriously botched planning for testing capacity The problem I have at the moment is that because Trump is so divisive in America and largely disliked outside, it is more time consuming than it should be to be reasonably confident that what I'm reading is roughly objective. I'm not saying there is anything wrong with your link - just everything about the US administration is often (but not always) biased one way or the other.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Mar 6, 2020 22:12:29 GMT
In the current climate I would think that airlines and hotels are headed for the bumpiest ride From my recent practical experiences, I would say its a mixed bag. On the postiive side, I recently completed a number of flights. The cabins were surprisingly full, if not at capacity. My hunch is that it will be the LCCs who will be the worst affected, whilst the old-school incumbents will ride the storm. On the hotel side, yes. I stayed in a few hotels (not in a high-risk areas). One hotel in particular was noticeably quiet and the sales manager confirmed bookings were down (both rooms and events). As a customer of course, its a lovely experience, you get treated like a king because staff who are normally over-stretched, harassed and stressed suddenly have a lot of time on their hands. I experienced everything from proactive laundry collections (I've never before had someone proactively come to my room every morning offering laundry service), to being dealt with directly by management everywhere from front-desk to restaurant, genuinely smiling all the time and even jokingly calling you their favourite customer.
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