ilmoro
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'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Jan 8, 2021 10:32:54 GMT
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Jan 8, 2021 10:45:29 GMT
Prompted by this tweet, which I'm sure the 65+'s here will take in good humour (ahem*)..
Aside from the slight, the clear inference is that there will be many restrictions still in place even if all goes well at this point. But actually though, what is plan A?
By the point at which the 65+'s and those with underlying conditions have been vaccinated, a huge huge majority of people who might have died from COVID will be protected.
We're then presumably into the realms of weighing up ongoing restrictions against a dwindling portion of people who will suffer in a serious way (or die) from it.
So, when should we be mostly 'released'? Genuine question. I suppose it will force the question of just how serious and prevalent a problem 'Long COVID' actually is, as presumably we'd not otherwise keep significant restrictions in place to ward off people feeling a bit rubbish for 2 weeks?
* Though admittedly mildly amusing, I don't really agree with the sentiment of the tweet, just as much as I don't agree that all young people are to blame for spreading the virus.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Jan 8, 2021 10:47:17 GMT
On Breakfast a GP said there are six and a bit doses in a vial, so unless there is wastage six doses is the normal number. I think it was 2.1 ml in a vial and 0.3 ml doses.
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Post by bracknellboy on Jan 8, 2021 11:00:40 GMT
I have a fear that we have pinned our hopes on the AZN vaccine and are not in the running for purchasing more of the Pfizer jab.
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ilmoro
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'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Jan 8, 2021 11:03:32 GMT
On Breakfast a GP said there are six and a bit doses in a vial, so unless there is wastage six doses is the normal number. I think it was 2.1 ml in a vial and 0.3 ml doses. Seems odd that only licenced for 5 doses per vial & presumably all orders based/reported on that. Could be a huge variation in what 300m doses actually means.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jan 8, 2021 11:11:15 GMT
On Breakfast a GP said there are six and a bit doses in a vial, so unless there is wastage six doses is the normal number. I think it was 2.1 ml in a vial and 0.3 ml doses. Seems odd that only licenced for 5 doses per vial & presumably all orders based/reported on that. Could be a huge variation in what 300m doses actually means. 0.3 x 5 = 1.5 = 40% contingency/wastage, 0.42ml/dose 0.3 x 6 = 1.8 = 17%, 0.35 0.3 x 7 = 2.1 = 0% Seven doses is pushing it. Six should be fairly easy. Five seems a safe conservative number.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Jan 8, 2021 11:59:48 GMT
Prompted by this tweet, which I'm sure the 65+'s here will take in good humour (ahem*).. Aside from the slight, the clear inference is that there will be many restrictions still in place even if all goes well at this point. But actually though, what is plan A? By the point at which the 65+'s and those with underlying conditions have been vaccinated, a huge huge majority of people who might have died from COVID will be protected. We're then presumably into the realms of weighing up ongoing restrictions against a dwindling portion of people who will suffer in a serious way (or die) from it. So, when should we be mostly 'released'? Genuine question. I suppose it will force the question of just how serious and prevalent a problem 'Long COVID' actually is, as presumably we'd not otherwise keep significant restrictions in place to ward off people feeling a bit rubbish for 2 weeks? * Though admittedly mildly amusing, I don't really agree with the sentiment of the tweet, just as much as I don't agree that all young people are to blame for spreading the virus. Also then brings into play Whitty's point about what is the acceptable number of deaths society will tolerate without anti-transmission restrictions - it has historically been a relatively high number given that 7-20,000 die annually from flu, but would we allow that number to die from COVID without bringing in restrictions? And if not, why not - are COVID deaths worth more than flu deaths?
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ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Jan 8, 2021 12:13:04 GMT
Seems odd that only licenced for 5 doses per vial & presumably all orders based/reported on that. Could be a huge variation in what 300m doses actually means. 0.3 x 5 = 1.5 = 40% contingency/wastage, 0.42ml/dose 0.3 x 6 = 1.8 = 17%, 0.35 0.3 x 7 = 2.1 = 0% Seven doses is pushing it. Six should be fairly easy. Five seems a safe conservative number. Seems to me that a multitude of countries are out of the realms of safe & conservative. Safe & conservative is Australia locking down Brisbane in response to one new variant case not vaccinating 20% less people than could easily be done.
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Mike
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Post by Mike on Jan 8, 2021 12:15:00 GMT
Also then brings into play Whitty's point about what is the acceptable number of deaths society will tolerate without anti-transmission restrictions - it has historically been a relatively high number given that 7-20,000 die annually from flu, but would we allow that number to die from COVID without bringing in restrictions? And if not, why not - are COVID deaths worth more than flu deaths? Sooner or later money always talks over everything else - not always immediately but eventually it's assured.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Jan 8, 2021 12:57:29 GMT
Also then brings into play Whitty's point about what is the acceptable number of deaths society will tolerate without anti-transmission restrictions - it has historically been a relatively high number given that 7-20,000 die annually from flu, but would we allow that number to die from COVID without bringing in restrictions? And if not, why not - are COVID deaths worth more than flu deaths? Sooner or later money always talks over everything else - not always immediately but eventually it's assured. It's true. Broadly speaking, judging by Twitter, we're at a point now where anyone even remotely sane agrees we should be in lockdown. When we have 5 less deaths than the day before, we'll hear the anti-lockdown brigade roaring into action demanding an end to restrictions. Then the Govt. will start unlocking, to the utter outrage of those who want to be locked down forever until no-one ever dies ever again of anything external to their house. But yes, people were shoved back to work last Summer with no vaccine whatsoever, so I don't think they're going to be hanging about for a moment longer than necessary.
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Jan 8, 2021 13:10:40 GMT
But yes, people were shoved back to work last Summer with no vaccine whatsoever, so I don't think they're going to be hanging about for a moment longer than necessary. We're basically heading for a variant of the model proposed in the Great Barrington Declaration, but with the "Focused Protection" being provided by the vaccine rather than by... well, magical thinking. Because shielding all those at risk was never going to work.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Jan 8, 2021 14:07:38 GMT
Latest info from the Sky News expert.
The R rate was previously estimated at 1.1 to 1.3 and it has increased to 1.0 to 1.4. How does this constitute an increase?
Also, we were told the the new variant will add 0.4 to the R rate. When will this kick in?
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Jan 8, 2021 14:47:35 GMT
Also, we were told the the new variant will add 0.4 to the R rate. When will this kick in?
Hopefully never? If the new lockdown measures work they should counter-balance the increase caused by the new variant.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Jan 8, 2021 15:07:38 GMT
Latest info from the Sky News expert.
The R rate was previously estimated at 1.1 to 1.3 and it has increased to 1.0 to 1.4. How does this constitute an increase?
Also, we were told the the new variant will add 0.4 to the R rate. When will this kick in?
The R value quoted by the gov.uk is a median value. It's safe to say doubling the R would gives you a better number in mind in the area spreading rapidly. You can compare the R value to other places like this one, it went up to 3 at one point. covid19.sph.hku.hk/dashboard
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Jan 8, 2021 20:12:47 GMT
Not because it's the 'wrong' thing to do then, just chicken? What should they do in the UK if they don't know what vaccine you had before (or it's not available) not offer you anything? Would that be better? Giving guidance on what to do in various circumstances seems sensible, rather than waiting until it happens, which it will with 10's of millions of doses of vaccine being given. It should be so rare that they don't need to contemplate it. What happens if the nurse giving the injection has a fit half way through giving it so it is not known how much has been adminsitered? What happens if ..... The problem with stating the scenario up front about what happens if we don't know who the patient is or we are unable to obtain any more of a specfic vaccine because all the manufacturer's facilities have exploded including the one where they keep the recipe should not be contemplated. In other words, if there is no vaccine left, we buy some more, make some more, buy the company that makes it and essentially pull out ALL the stops to get some. Stating up front what to do makes people more relaxed about it. "No more in the fridge until next Wednesday....lets give her the other one....." That is a scenario we do not want to encourage.
I can see some homeless people needing this contingency. So potential thousands of individuals in London.
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