mrk
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Post by mrk on Jan 9, 2021 10:39:06 GMT
Does that mean I should fake a cough when I'm on the bus?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2021 11:29:49 GMT
I've looked at the graphs and I reckon we are in the third wave. But you say tomato....
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Jan 9, 2021 11:42:33 GMT
Does that mean I should fake a cough when I'm on the bus? 🤔 acting like we have it, I suppose to 2 options: 1. book a test asap, 2. stay at home, only leave home for a test
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littleoldlady
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Post by littleoldlady on Jan 9, 2021 12:00:15 GMT
Does that mean I should fake a cough when I'm on the bus? Might be a quick way to get a seat if it's full.
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Post by bernythedolt on Jan 9, 2021 14:54:32 GMT
ONS infection survey for London gives it the highest infection rate at about 1 in 50. Wales is second with about 1 in 60. YET, Whilst the new variant accounts for circa 70% of infections in London it only accounts for 10% in Wales!www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/24december2020A lot of the general public, the mass media, politicians, publish-quickly academics are making claims about the transmissibility that aren’t robustly and rigorously peer reviewed. They are estimates from so-called models that have a lot of assumptions and those assumptions not only have complex interactions with each other but also those assumptions are often layered upon other assumptions which aren’t themselves necessarily robust. The relationship between the new variant and observed rises in infection aren’t straightforward. As Wales illustrates the virus infection rate can be out of control with the plain old variant. For the avoidance of doubt I’m not stating that the new variant isn’t more transmissible. I’m stating that the early estimates aren’t necessarily robust and rigorous. And that’s just in the academic publishing arena and before you get into the flawed, even less-trained ramblings of politicians, media and the general public. Wales and the new variant anomaly continues and has become even more stark in the latest ONS infection rate survey released today and covering the week to 2nd January. www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/8january2021Since the last Data set (week to 18 December) London’s infection rate has increased from 1 in 50 to 1 in 30 and the new variant prevalence has increased from about 70% to 80%. Wheras Wales infection rate has dropped from 1 in 60 (previously second only to London) to 1 in 70 and the prevalence of the new variant has DROPPED from about 10% to about 5%. Whilst the small data size of the new variant in Wales gives rise to considerable uncertainty surrounding the estimate of new variant prevalence it is difficult to reconcile how London is in trouble solely because of the new variant and the same is not showing up in Wales with both the infection rate down and probably the new variant too. Agree entirely. I wonder if the different ethnicity of the two regions accounts for it? We know that BAME are more badly affected. Perhaps also population density?
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Jan 9, 2021 15:10:59 GMT
Does that mean I should fake a cough when I'm on the bus? Might be a quick way to get a seat if it's full. On the other hand it might end badly: www.youtube.com/watch?v=qn6t9uDr_mA
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Jan 10, 2021 11:42:06 GMT
The Guardian addresses whether Summer's big events will happen - Euro 2020, the olympics, holidays, festivals... It's an interesting one, but unfortunately I think all of these events are coming a bit soon. What do you think? My guesses: Euro 2020 - On, but probably just in one location and with limited/no crowds. Olympics - Probably on, but a bit less likely than the football because of the pure quantity of athletes and varying vaccination statuses Festivals - forget it, surely? zero social distancing and a predominantly young unvaccinated crowd - can't see it.. Holidays - Obviously will be possible but I think may still be much more difficult than people anticipate. Needing a PCR test on the way out and in could be a real logistical/price barrier. Will airlines be able to get some sort of 'vaccinated passport/waiver' in place so the oldies can go more freely? Suspect the countries more desperate for tourism will push strongly for that, but having something internationally recognised seems a stretch at this point.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Jan 10, 2021 12:10:26 GMT
The Guardian addresses whether Summer's big events will happen - Euro 2020, the olympics, holidays, festivals... It's an interesting one, but unfortunately I think all of these events are coming a bit soon. What do you think? My guesses: Euro 2020 - On, but probably just in one location and with limited/no crowds. Olympics - Probably on, but a bit less likely than the football because of the pure quantity of athletes and varying vaccination statuses Festivals - forget it, surely? zero social distancing and a predominantly young unvaccinated crowd - can't see it.. Holidays - Obviously will be possible but I think may still be much more difficult than people anticipate. Needing a PCR test on the way out and in could be a real logistical/price barrier. Will airlines be able to get some sort of 'vaccinated passport/waiver' in place so the oldies can go more freely? Suspect the countries more desperate for tourism will push strongly for that, but having something internationally recognised seems a stretch at this point. We are told it will take 6 weeks to vaccinate the high risk group, followed by a similar duration for the 50 - 64yo. Another 6 weeks to give high risk their second jab and another 6 weeks for the second jab of the over 50's. That takes you up to the begining of July before anyone under 50 gets their first jab. So:
- Euro 2020 - possibly behind closed doors, with everyone tested regularly (maybe with a ban on players hugging and cuddling each other after a goal is scored)
- Olympics - unlikely given the number of people involved. Having everyone staying in an athletes village is a recipe for disaster.
- Festivals - no chance
- Holidays - will return in some limited form, but I suspect the government will oppose any two tier system where vaccinated people get special treatment (although I would support it, given young people have shown little concern for the welfare of others, so why should I worry if they remain confined to barracks).
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Jan 10, 2021 12:47:24 GMT
We are told it will take 6 weeks to vaccinate the hig risk group, followed by a similay duration for the 50 - 64yo. Another 6 weeks to give high risk their second jab and another 6 weeks for the second jab of the over 50's. That takes you up to the begining of July before anyone under 50 gets their first jab. So:
- Euro 2020 - possibly behind closed doors, with everyone tested regularly (maybe with a ban on players hugging and cuddling each other after a goal is scored)
- Olympics - unlikely given the number of people involved. Having everyone staying in an athletes village is a recipe for dissaster.
- Festivals - no chance
- Holidays - will return in some limited form, but I suspect the government will oppose any two tier system where vaccinated people get special treatment (although I would support it, given young people have shown little concern for the welfare of others, so why should I worry if they remain confined to barracks).
We basically agree then. Olympics is definitely a bit iffy. As an aside, you do seem rather overly laser focused on the fallibilities of young people. I'm in my late 30's, so probably considered between 'old' and 'young'. I do feel like young people can't catch a break here. They're either 'wet' or 'woke', caring far too much about others and the environment, or completely selfish. It can't be both, surely? FWIW, in my experience of the last year (not in the UK), the demographic which I think has had the least apparent regard for rules is overweight men between probably 50-65. The wife and I started to make a joke of it. Over the Summer it seemed like there almost wasn't a single person of that description without their mask hanging limply from one ear or (most often) secured safely with their nose poking out. My point isn't to say they're worse, it's just that life is hard enough as it is without adding a further element to the generation wars.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Jan 10, 2021 15:54:30 GMT
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Jan 10, 2021 15:58:10 GMT
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Jan 10, 2021 16:01:02 GMT
Our date seems to be Jan 3rd, most of the rest Jan 8th or 9th, so possibly a reporting delay. Edit: Crossed with above.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Jan 10, 2021 18:20:39 GMT
We are told it will take 6 weeks to vaccinate the hig risk group, followed by a similay duration for the 50 - 64yo. Another 6 weeks to give high risk their second jab and another 6 weeks for the second jab of the over 50's. That takes you up to the begining of July before anyone under 50 gets their first jab. So:
- Euro 2020 - possibly behind closed doors, with everyone tested regularly (maybe with a ban on players hugging and cuddling each other after a goal is scored)
- Olympics - unlikely given the number of people involved. Having everyone staying in an athletes village is a recipe for dissaster.
- Festivals - no chance
- Holidays - will return in some limited form, but I suspect the government will oppose any two tier system where vaccinated people get special treatment (although I would support it, given young people have shown little concern for the welfare of others, so why should I worry if they remain confined to barracks).
We basically agree then. Olympics is definitely a bit iffy. As an aside, you do seem rather overly laser focused on the fallibilities of young people. I'm in my late 30's, so probably considered between 'old' and 'young'. I do feel like young people can't catch a break here. They're either 'wet' or 'woke', caring far too much about others and the environment, or completely selfish. It can't be both, surely? FWIW, in my experience of the last year (not in the UK), the demographic which I think has had the least apparent regard for rules is overweight men between probably 50-65. The wife and I started to make a joke of it. Over the Summer it seemed like there almost wasn't a single person of that description without their mask hanging limply from one ear or (most often) secured safely with their nose poking out. My point isn't to say they're worse, it's just that life is hard enough as it is without adding a further element to the generation wars. From the BBC web site earlier this afternoon - A teenager has been arrested and 38 fines issued over suspected plans to hold an illegal rave in Bristol. If I was to look on the internet I could probably find dozens of similar articles. However, I would be hard pressed to find any that involved a group of blue rinse grannies.
I have equal contempt for all sections of society that ingnore the covid rules, but I save a special place for the most egregious offenders. This usually involves large gatherings indoors, predominantly involving the under 30's. I don't know what type of establishment you frequent to be surrounded by middle aged fat men, but I suspect that there is significantly more social distancing involved that at a rave or a party.
I have no interest in inflaming any generation war, but I believe that it is appropriate to highlight any group in society that are disproportionately likely to be spreading the virus, so that action can be taken to mitigate the problem. Students bear signifcant responsibility for the second wave of covid, this was highlighted in the media and steps were taken to get most of them back under control.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Jan 10, 2021 19:01:22 GMT
From the BBC web site earlier this afternoon - A teenager has been arrested and 38 fines issued over suspected plans to hold an illegal rave in Bristol. If I was to look on the internet I could probably find dozens of similar articles. However, I would be hard pressed to find any that involved a group of blue rinse grannies.
I have equal contempt for all sections of society that ingnore the covid rules, but I save a special place for the most egregious offenders. This usually involves large gatherings indoors, predominantly involving the under 30's. I don't know what type of establishment you frequent to be surrounded by middle aged fat men, but I suspect that there is significantly more social distancing involved that at a rave or a party.
I have no interest in inflaming any generation war, but I believe that it is appropriate to highlight any group in society that are disproportionately likely to be spreading the virus, so that action can be taken to mitigate the problem. Students bear signifcant responsibility for the second wave of covid, this was highlighted in the media and steps were taken to get most of them back under control.
I take your point, though it's not quite comparing apples with apples. The blue rinse brigade would hardly otherwise be down raving in 'spoons if it weren't for covid. It's easier to make a sacrifice when it's something you don't do anyway. Likewise, there aren't many elderly folks living in 15 metres squared rooms in shared houses. It's easier to stay at home when you have a whole home to yourself and family with a nice little garden. Finally, what goes around comes around. Are you sure that the older generation's behaviour will be quite so exemplary in the next few months when they have been vaccinated and feel invulnerable? Will they be equally cautious about spreading a virus that they can't actually suffer from? Will they gladly not visit their also vaccinated friends if such restrictions are in place? In fact you've already said it yourself: "why should I worry if they remain confined to barracks" - the answer is that, until proven otherwise, you could potentially still be spreading the virus when you go to a big pub lunch and interact with the barstaff or whoever. Many of those young people will have to be out to earn a living.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Jan 10, 2021 19:06:37 GMT
My main comment on the generation discussion is that we are asking a lot more from our youth than from our elderly. This is a disease that essentially doesn't affect young people and yet we are asking them to radically change their lives, their education and their free time to save the lives of the elderly. That is the right thing to do of course but we should be mindful of that. We should also realise that those who make these decisions are typically elderly themselves. Even though its the right thing to do we should actually be grateful for the help of the young. We are not asking the elderly to do anything other than save their own lives so no gratitude needed there. I'm nearly 50 and also see myself as inbetween. (No doubt I'll still see myself that way when I hit 55, 60 etc.... )
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