r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Mar 8, 2020 12:34:45 GMT
One thing I can't reconcile sensibly at the moment. I see plausible-seeming analysis (e.g. 1, 2) extrapolating the exponential growth of the virus into the billions by the Summer. Yet, I've also seen that cases in mainland China have been hovering around 80k for the last few days. So, what gives? If unstoppable exponential growth is a given, then China should be well into the upper hundreds of thousands of cases by now, surely. I accept that they're undoubtedly fiddling the stats to some extent, but by hundreds of thousands? Also, I appreciate that China has imposed very strict measures, but it seems Italy is heading in a similar direction today. Would we not expect all countries to impose significant restrictions to lower the growth rate, if perhaps not quite as much as China? Italy I suppose will be a useful benchmark. Their virus growth rate seems pretty exponential at the moment (4600 ish yesterday, 5800 today). As they introduce stricter and stricter measures, hopefully that rate of increase will fall. As it stands, it seems to me that the virus will indeed grow exponentially left unchecked, but special measures should bring the rate significantly down. At what point is obviously going to depend on a range of factors (compliance of population, population density, age, social norms, weather?). Not trying to underplay the seriousness in general btw, it seems inevitable that UK cases are going to grow hugely in the near future. I just question whether some analysts/pundits are perhaps overplaying the exponential nature of the disease with some questionable assumptions for the medium term? You're welcome to C.M.V! |
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Post by bracknellboy on Mar 8, 2020 12:51:57 GMT
One thing I can't reconcile sensibly at the moment. I see plausible-seeming analysis (e.g. 1, 2) extrapolating the exponential growth of the virus into the billions by the Summer. Yet, I've also seen that cases in mainland China have been hovering around 80k for the last few days. So, what gives? If unstoppable exponential growth is a given, then China should be well into the upper hundreds of thousands of cases by now, surely. I accept that they're undoubtedly fiddling the stats to some extent, but by hundreds of thousands? Also, I appreciate that China has imposed very strict measures, but it seems Italy is heading in a similar direction today. Would we not expect all countries to impose significant restrictions to lower the growth rate, if perhaps not quite as much as China? Italy I suppose will be a useful benchmark. Their virus growth rate seems pretty exponential at the moment (4600 ish yesterday, 5800 today). As they introduce stricter and stricter measures, hopefully that rate of increase will fall. As it stands, it seems to me that the virus will indeed grow exponentially left unchecked, but special measures should bring the rate significantly down. At what point is obviously going to depend on a range of factors (compliance of population, population density, age, social norms, weather?). Not trying to underplay the seriousness in general btw, it seems inevitable that UK cases are going to grow hugely in the near future. I just question whether some analysts/pundits are perhaps overplaying the exponential nature of the disease with some questionable assumptions for the medium term? You're welcome to C.M.V! to the extent that containment is working in China - and to what level it really is versus cooked numbers - the genie surely will be let back out the bottle to a fair degree when the stopper is taken out.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Mar 8, 2020 13:49:39 GMT
One thing I can't reconcile sensibly at the moment. I see plausible-seeming analysis (e.g. 1, 2) extrapolating the exponential growth of the virus into the billions by the Summer. Yet, I've also seen that cases in mainland China have been hovering around 80k for the last few days. So, what gives? If unstoppable exponential growth is a given, then China should be well into the upper hundreds of thousands of cases by now, surely. I accept that they're undoubtedly fiddling the stats to some extent, but by hundreds of thousands? Also, I appreciate that China has imposed very strict measures, but it seems Italy is heading in a similar direction today. Would we not expect all countries to impose significant restrictions to lower the growth rate, if perhaps not quite as much as China? Italy I suppose will be a useful benchmark. Their virus growth rate seems pretty exponential at the moment (4600 ish yesterday, 5800 today). As they introduce stricter and stricter measures, hopefully that rate of increase will fall. As it stands, it seems to me that the virus will indeed grow exponentially left unchecked, but special measures should bring the rate significantly down. At what point is obviously going to depend on a range of factors (compliance of population, population density, age, social norms, weather?). Not trying to underplay the seriousness in general btw, it seems inevitable that UK cases are going to grow hugely in the near future. I just question whether some analysts/pundits are perhaps overplaying the exponential nature of the disease with some questionable assumptions for the medium term? You're welcome to C.M.V!Cytomegalovirus? I had CMV - horrible. Like Glandular Fever. It kills 400 children annually, 8,000 have permanent neurological deficits (deafness, intellectual impairment, etc). (https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/25/health/cmv-cytomegalovirus-pregnancy.html) Increases mortality rates in older adults by 42%. (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23442093) "Congenital CMV has been labeled as one of the Neglected Infections of Poverty in the United States" (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3082510/)
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djay
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Post by djay on Mar 8, 2020 14:09:58 GMT
One thing I can't reconcile sensibly at the moment. I see plausible-seeming analysis (e.g. 1, 2) extrapolating the exponential growth of the virus into the billions by the Summer. Yet, I've also seen that cases in mainland China have been hovering around 80k for the last few days. So, what gives? If unstoppable exponential growth is a given, then China should be well into the upper hundreds of thousands of cases by now, surely. I accept that they're undoubtedly fiddling the stats to some extent, but by hundreds of thousands? Also, I appreciate that China has imposed very strict measures, but it seems Italy is heading in a similar direction today. Would we not expect all countries to impose significant restrictions to lower the growth rate, if perhaps not quite as much as China? Italy I suppose will be a useful benchmark. Their virus growth rate seems pretty exponential at the moment (4600 ish yesterday, 5800 today). As they introduce stricter and stricter measures, hopefully that rate of increase will fall. As it stands, it seems to me that the virus will indeed grow exponentially left unchecked, but special measures should bring the rate significantly down. At what point is obviously going to depend on a range of factors (compliance of population, population density, age, social norms, weather?). Not trying to underplay the seriousness in general btw, it seems inevitable that UK cases are going to grow hugely in the near future. I just question whether some analysts/pundits are perhaps overplaying the exponential nature of the disease with some questionable assumptions for the medium term? You're welcome to C.M.V! "Growth" and infection rate (or detection) are very different entities and subject to a very different range of constraints. You're right to question the application of exponential increase to infection rates outside laboratory or simplistic computer model. Effectively the simple analysis quoted is how we might predict simple unconstrained microbial growth rather than population infection.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Mar 8, 2020 14:13:26 GMT
One thing I can't reconcile sensibly at the moment. I see plausible-seeming analysis (e.g. 1, 2) extrapolating the exponential growth of the virus into the billions by the Summer. Yet, I've also seen that cases in mainland China have been hovering around 80k for the last few days. So, what gives? If unstoppable exponential growth is a given, then China should be well into the upper hundreds of thousands of cases by now, surely. I accept that they're undoubtedly fiddling the stats to some extent, but by hundreds of thousands? Also, I appreciate that China has imposed very strict measures, but it seems Italy is heading in a similar direction today. Would we not expect all countries to impose significant restrictions to lower the growth rate, if perhaps not quite as much as China? Italy I suppose will be a useful benchmark. Their virus growth rate seems pretty exponential at the moment (4600 ish yesterday, 5800 today). As they introduce stricter and stricter measures, hopefully that rate of increase will fall. As it stands, it seems to me that the virus will indeed grow exponentially left unchecked, but special measures should bring the rate significantly down. At what point is obviously going to depend on a range of factors (compliance of population, population density, age, social norms, weather?). Not trying to underplay the seriousness in general btw, it seems inevitable that UK cases are going to grow hugely in the near future. I just question whether some analysts/pundits are perhaps overplaying the exponential nature of the disease with some questionable assumptions for the medium term? You're welcome to C.M.V! I don't know how reliable the figures coming out of China are, but I suspect the general trend is reasonably accurate. What China has shown is that the UK position of proportional action is nowhere near as good as draconian measures. Why we are still allowing people to fly to and from Italy is a complete mystery.
The government should be discouraging mass gatherings of people (sports events, pop concerts) and dissuading all but essential travel. It would also be good if they encouraged people to stay home in their spare time rather than go out socialising. Telling people to wash their hands regularly isn't going to get the job done, because there are lots of idiots out there (like the Australian doctor who developed flu like symptoms while in USA, flew home and treated 70 patients at his medical practice before being diagnosed with Coronavirus).
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Mar 8, 2020 14:18:14 GMT
One thing I can't reconcile sensibly at the moment. I see plausible-seeming analysis (e.g. 1, 2) extrapolating the exponential growth of the virus into the billions by the Summer. Yet, I've also seen that cases in mainland China have been hovering around 80k for the last few days. So, what gives? If unstoppable exponential growth is a given, then China should be well into the upper hundreds of thousands of cases by now, surely. I accept that they're undoubtedly fiddling the stats to some extent, but by hundreds of thousands? Also, I appreciate that China has imposed very strict measures, but it seems Italy is heading in a similar direction today. Would we not expect all countries to impose significant restrictions to lower the growth rate, if perhaps not quite as much as China? Italy I suppose will be a useful benchmark. Their virus growth rate seems pretty exponential at the moment (4600 ish yesterday, 5800 today). As they introduce stricter and stricter measures, hopefully that rate of increase will fall. As it stands, it seems to me that the virus will indeed grow exponentially left unchecked, but special measures should bring the rate significantly down. At what point is obviously going to depend on a range of factors (compliance of population, population density, age, social norms, weather?). Not trying to underplay the seriousness in general btw, it seems inevitable that UK cases are going to grow hugely in the near future. I just question whether some analysts/pundits are perhaps overplaying the exponential nature of the disease with some questionable assumptions for the medium term? You're welcome to C.M.V! I don't know how reliable the figures coming out of China are, but I suspect the general trend is reasonably accurate. What China has shown is that the UK position of proportional action is nowhere near as good as draconian measures. Why we are still allowing people to fly to and from Italy is a complete mystery.
The government should be discouraging mass gatherings of people (sports events, pop concerts) and dissuading all but essential travel. It would also be good if they encouraged people to stay home in their spare time rather than go out socialising. Telling people to wash their hands regularly isn't going to get the job done, because there are lots of idiots out there (like the Australian doctor who developed flu like symptoms while in USA, flew home and treated 70 patients at his medical practice before being diagnosed with Coronavirus).
Some interesting figures here, showing daily new cases outside China, e.g. Feb 22: 330, Feb 29: 1416, Mar 7: 4,006. In that short (no doubt unrepresentative period), trebling each week. Meanwhile UK all time count now 273.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Mar 8, 2020 14:23:22 GMT
According to WHO.INT, the confirmed cases reported doesn't really tell us the full picture how the virus has already spread. The number of confirmed cases in each country can be manipulated easily. No lab tests, no confirmed cases.  |
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Mar 8, 2020 14:41:25 GMT
Some interesting figures here, showing daily new cases outside China, e.g. Feb 22: 330, Feb 29: 1416, Mar 7: 4,006. In that short (no doubt unrepresentative period), trebling each week. Meanwhile UK all time count now 273. The virus has been around since November. China spent 6 weeks ignoring the problem before they started to take things seriously. I get the impression that western countries (led by fat Don) are in the same state of denial that China was in 2 - 3 months ago. As a possble cure for the problem:
- everybody in the world self isolates
- anyone developing symptoms is taken to hospital
- after 2 weeks the only people with the virus are in hospital and the rest of the world can go back to life as normal.
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Post by captainconfident on Mar 8, 2020 14:52:55 GMT
Some interesting figures here, showing daily new cases outside China, e.g. Feb 22: 330, Feb 29: 1416, Mar 7: 4,006. In that short (no doubt unrepresentative period), trebling each week. Meanwhile UK all time count now 273. The virus has been around since November. China spent 6 weeks ignoring the problem before they started to take things seriously. I get the impression that western countries (led by fat Don) and in the same state of denial that China was in 2 - 3 months ago. As a possble cure for the problem:
- everybody in the world self isolates
- anyone developing symptoms is taken to hospital
- after 2 weeks the only people with the virus are in hospital and the rest of the world can go back to life as normal.
Genius! This will work. And then if everyone becomes vegan at the end of the 14 days, we'll not have these swine bird bat and monkey diseases ever again.
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bg
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Post by bg on Mar 8, 2020 15:04:50 GMT
Some interesting figures here, showing daily new cases outside China, e.g. Feb 22: 330, Feb 29: 1416, Mar 7: 4,006. In that short (no doubt unrepresentative period), trebling each week. Meanwhile UK all time count now 273. The virus has been around since November. China spent 6 weeks ignoring the problem before they started to take things seriously. I get the impression that western countries (led by fat Don) are in the same state of denial that China was in 2 - 3 months ago. As a possble cure for the problem:
- everybody in the world self isolates
- anyone developing symptoms is taken to hospital
- after 2 weeks the only people with the virus are in hospital and the rest of the world can go back to life as normal.
But if everyone is self isolating, who works in the hospital or takes the sick people to hospital, or keeps the gas and electric on, keeps the news rolling, collects the bins etc etc
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travolta
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Post by travolta on Mar 8, 2020 15:58:57 GMT
I do think that a global Pandemic is a bigger threat to the continuation of humanity than climate change but receives almost none of the attention. This is based on no scientific evidence whatsoever and completely off the top of my head but I can well imagine a scenario where a disease spreads quickly around the globe before symptoms are even detected and authorities are powerless to stop the spread or the breakdown in public services and order. I struggle to imagine a similar scenario with climate change, yes there could be natural disasters (currently deaths from natural disasters are at historic lows) which may be in part attributable to climate change. More likely long term changes in climatic conditions which personally (again with no scientific evidence backing me up here) could be coped with by changes to agricultural techniques/crops, movements south to North of arable land and relocation of properties in coastal areas. Yeah will be annoying but prefer that than a mass pandemic. Some people speak of a run 'run-away climate scenario', where temperatures rise to a certain level where so much methane is released from melting glaciers that temperature rockets to the level where life is not sustainable. Again with no scientific backing, I find this scenario most unlikely as while I could see a scenario where glaciers melt releasing methane, even if this were to happen I suspect temperature would only rise a few degrees for a few hundred years, well below what they were in pre-historic times. In short, no idea if this will happen but if it did it will be pretty annoying and potentially deadly for some but mankind would survive. A global pandemic though makes me a lot more nervous. Again, with no scientific evidence whatsoever, suspect this Coronavirus will not be the Pandemic to threaten humanity, but it could be very severe if it spreads worldwide and wouldn't be surprised if something worse happens in the future. As populations increase, travel increased and people are increasingly living in large urban conurbations something like the black death now would spread like wildfire. And I am not entirely sure we are much better prepared today than we were in the 14th Century, hospitals rely on a consistent level of patients, go from 100 patients a day to 100,000 patients a day and hospitals are pretty much useless. Not to mention how every public and private service would break down due to staff shortages and panic. Quite, Ebola would be good one, wouldn't it ?
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travolta
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Post by travolta on Mar 8, 2020 16:06:03 GMT
Who remembers 'The Twelve Monkeys'? (I thought Brad Pitt was jolly good in that,didn't you?)
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bernythedolt
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Post by bernythedolt on Mar 8, 2020 17:44:53 GMT
I don't know how reliable the figures coming out of China are, but I suspect the general trend is reasonably accurate. What China has shown is that the UK position of proportional action is nowhere near as good as draconian measures. Why we are still allowing people to fly to and from Italy is a complete mystery. The government should be discouraging mass gatherings of people (sports events, pop concerts) and dissuading all but essential travel. It would also be good if they encouraged people to stay home in their spare time rather than go out socialising. Telling people to wash their hands regularly isn't going to get the job done, because there are lots of idiots out there (like the Australian doctor who developed flu like symptoms while in USA, flew home and treated 70 patients at his medical practice before being diagnosed with Coronavirus).
Not such a mystery to me. Covid-19 mainly targeting pensioners is a godsend to our government. Offloading a few tens of thousands of us from the pensions bill would help balance the books no end. If our government were at all concerned, they would be building emergency ward facilities right now, as China did. It suits the bigger picture not to. And it's far cheaper to advertise hand washing, while spinning the fiction about the NHS being all geared up ready to cope.
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Post by bracknellboy on Mar 8, 2020 17:48:30 GMT
Latest (from a few mins ago on the bbc)
The number of people to have died from the coronavirus in Italy has shot up by 133 in a day to 366, officials say.
The total number of infections leapt 25% to 7,375 from 5,883, according to the Civil Protection agency.
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Post by gravitykillz on Mar 8, 2020 17:53:54 GMT
I dont understand why Italy is more affected than other eu countries? Something just doesn't add up. I heard even the Pope has corona. Maybe more travellers from Wuhan to Italy than other eu countries?
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