michaelc
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S.
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Post by michaelc on Mar 12, 2020 12:21:00 GMT
Ireland just announced schools to close. Are we about to announce a similar move?
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Post by gravitykillz on Mar 12, 2020 12:35:35 GMT
Are you lot still going to work ?
I am currently on holiday but supposed to be back next week. Seriously considering not going back!
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easylender
Member of DD Central
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Post by easylender on Mar 12, 2020 12:40:20 GMT
Chinese exports have revolutionised the global economy but going forward something has to be done about the export or viruses. China has to address the issue of these medieval 'wet' markets where everything with a heartbeat is slaughtered & eaten. Hygiene, contamination & contagion are serious risks to global health. Funny, I was just about to post along similar lines. With these nasty diseases regularly emanating from this one country, and once this outbreak is over, I wonder if the world at large will finally wake up? How many countries will ban tourists from that country until it can improve its health practices? It's not just improved hygiene standards that's required. Medical research is badly underfunded. A belated boost to that wouldn't go amiss.
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Post by gravitykillz on Mar 12, 2020 12:54:39 GMT
Y2k
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Post by bracknellboy on Mar 12, 2020 13:26:34 GMT
.....
In terms of this weeks correction, I've spoken to a technical trader (algo trading) this morning. I struggle to place a lot of credence on this mumbo-jumbo as I prefer to work with hard data like company earnings. But, FWIW, the view is that now FTSE 100 has broken below the Aug 2019 low of c. 7100, the next support level will be the Nov 2016 and Dec 2018 lows of 6700. If it goes below that (quite likely given that is only 4% below current value), there will be minimal support from algo traders until the Feb 2016 low of c. 5700 (19% below current value).
This was posted all of what, 15 days ago ?
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Post by Ace on Mar 12, 2020 13:33:18 GMT
.....
In terms of this weeks correction, I've spoken to a technical trader (algo trading) this morning. I struggle to place a lot of credence on this mumbo-jumbo as I prefer to work with hard data like company earnings. But, FWIW, the view is that now FTSE 100 has broken below the Aug 2019 low of c. 7100, the next support level will be the Nov 2016 and Dec 2018 lows of 6700. If it goes below that (quite likely given that is only 4% below current value), there will be minimal support from algo traders until the Feb 2016 low of c. 5700 (19% below current value).
This was posted all of what, 15 days ago ? Well, the 5700 support didn't last long. It's around 5400 now.
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Post by mrclondon on Mar 12, 2020 13:53:17 GMT
I know I've been consistently gloomy on this thread, but this is way beyond my worse case expectations at this point in time given G7 countries are only just beginning to see the impact of the virus locally, and supply chains are only just running out of Chinese manufactured inventory.
Markets down c. 8-11% just today (screen grab @ 13:47)
High 20% / Low 30% drops for most markets since the peak mid February (Poland & Russia both down c. 37%, Chinese largely unchanged over the same period)
And this is before any banks have collapsed, something a number of academics have said is possible.
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Post by southseacompany on Mar 12, 2020 14:14:01 GMT
Interesting day. Stock markets, gold, bitcoin, high yield bonds are all down hard. One performer: government bonds. As they say, panics cause a flight to safety.
A few days ago someone on 4chan quipped:
It seemed funny at the time, but I wonder if he may be on to something...
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cb25
Posts: 3,528
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Post by cb25 on Mar 12, 2020 14:29:28 GMT
BBC reports UK (all time) cases up to 590 - daily increase of 130 - with 10 deaths.
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Post by bracknellboy on Mar 12, 2020 17:13:20 GMT
New advise to be issued by the Govt. includes:
O advise all those over-70s not to go on cruises
Who'd have thunk it eh ? The metaphorical queues of those waiting to board are suddenly disappearing before our very eyes thanks to this new found insight.
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corto
Member of DD Central
one-syllabistic
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Post by corto on Mar 12, 2020 17:27:39 GMT
BBC reports UK (all time) cases up to 590 - daily increase of 130 - with 10 deaths. Data suggest an about 30% increase per day in the current phase; 130/590 is on the good side There is a new paper accessible saying that 45-85% of infections (in some places in Asia) are through pre-symptomatic infected people. (Guardian has a report about this) If that's correct the measures UK has in place are 45-85% insufficient.
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cb25
Posts: 3,528
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Post by cb25 on Mar 12, 2020 17:35:42 GMT
BBC reports UK (all time) cases up to 590 - daily increase of 130 - with 10 deaths. Data suggest an about 30% increase per day in the current phase; 130/590 is on the good side There is a new paper accessible saying that 45-85% of infections (in some places in Asia) are through pre-symptomatic infected people. (Guardian has a report about this) If that's correct the measures UK has in place are 45-85% insufficient. PM, chief medical officer and chief scientific officer currently doing a press conference. BBC reports "The UK's Chief Scientific Officer, Sir Patrick Vallance, says between 5,000 and 10,000 people in the UK will already have the virus". However, they still haven't banned mass gatherings, as it's said to not be particularly effective (e.g. ban football match attendance, people just go down the pub)
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corto
Member of DD Central
one-syllabistic
Posts: 851
Likes: 356
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Post by corto on Mar 12, 2020 17:43:40 GMT
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michaelc
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S.
Posts: 5,712
Likes: 2,986
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Post by michaelc on Mar 12, 2020 17:52:55 GMT
IF and its a huge IF, most of the rest of Europe implements social crowd measures such as school closures and we do not and it turns out that that was a mistake because we suffer more as a result (neither of which I know to be true yet) BJ will have to resign.
I say that as someone who generally supports his government so I've no agenda about attacking his every move.
Edit: Related, as far as I can see it was the airlines themselves that cancelled the dozens of flights every day inbound from Italy - not the government. Is that already a sign of poor government judgement?
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Mar 12, 2020 18:16:14 GMT
Having watched the whole press conference, I didn't see it as Boris making the calls based on his opinions, rather it appeared that he was listening to advice and any advice can only be as good as the information available at the time. I'm sure the CMO/CSO are aware of all relevant scientific papers on this, not just the one the Guardian refers to.
As to the point made by corto about the effects on industry - I would expect that to be a large consideration. 'Doing an Italy', i.e. locking down almost the whole of the country, is going to have massive economic cost. It'll be interesting to see how long the Italian authorities try to keep it going and how long the population agree to what is almost a prison sentence for the masses. As the press conference here made clear, they want to make any lock-down as short as possible and as effective as possible to ensure the public buys into it, otherwise the danger is that the public break quarantine just when the virus is about to peak. I'm sure that behind the CMO/CSO are teams that include people who do this sort of thing (modelling epidemics) for a living, rather than spending just an hour/two on it as is the case with journalists.
Guardian reporting a question answered by Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, during the above press conference: "Q: When do you think older people will be asked to stay at home? And how old is old?
Vallance says the peak is probably 10 to 14 weeks away, maybe longer. Even to cover the peak, you would need to ensure that those sorts of measures would be in place for 12 or 13 weeks or so."
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