r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Mar 16, 2020 22:23:11 GMT
Good grief !
Just back from a large Tesco ... I'm shell shocked ... huge portions of the shop had zero stock. I got almost everything on my list which was mainly fresh fruit & veg but there was virtually no raw meat, fortunately the only thing I really wanted was liver .... quite a few packs to choose from (packs claim can't be frozen I guess the reason). Then I got told off at the checkout for having more than 5 packs of UHT Orange juce.
For others intending late evening shopping to avoid too many other people - shops are closing earlier than normal (10pm not 1am in this case).
I think it’s called shelf shocked !M&S continues to be well stocked. But it’s stuff tends to be no-freezing, use soon. The only empty shelves were the small hygiene section. Unfortunately the system dynamics on the shelf-shock mean it’ll continue to get worse. The whole supply chain will be depleted as warehouses, cash and carry and retail shelves are emptied into home larders and make shift garage storage. At my local Sainsbury’s one lady was enviously eyeing the pasta that had been donated into the food bank box! Pace yourselves..in full quarantine mode in Spain, and one of the only excuses we have to leave is to go to the (very well stocked) supermarket. "darling, I think we need another clove of garlic, best go to Mercadona..."
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Post by bracknellboy on Mar 16, 2020 22:29:00 GMT
BBC:
Dire prediction sees shift in UK strategy
James Gallagher
Health and science correspondent, BBC News
The UK's plan has shifted because the scientific modelling showed we were on course for a "catastrophic epidemic".
A strategy of just slowing the spread of the virus, but not trying to stop it, would have overwhelmed intensive care units.
The modelling by Imperial College London has been heavily informed by the experience in Italy and is influencing decisions at the heart of government.
Their calculations predicted 260,000 deaths in the UK.
Instead the plan is to drive down the number of cases to very low levels, which the models predict will limit deaths from coronavirus to the thousands or tens of thousands.
However, this approach comes with a major problem - there is no exit strategy.
Without the immunity that would build up if people were infected, then cases would soar as soon as measures are lifted.
The report said these could need to be in place until a vaccine is available, which could take up to 18 months.
We are in this for the long haul.
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Post by bernythedolt on Mar 16, 2020 22:42:12 GMT
We will be where Italy is now in approximately 5 weeks. The UK government yesterday suggested we're 4 weeks behind them. BUT oddly... UK cases today = 798 and Italy passed that figure only two weeks ago (with 655 cases on 27/2/20, and 889 on 28/2/20). So currently we would seem to be just two weeks behind them. Italy today (two weeks later) = 17,660. Italy's climb out trajectory is slightly steeper than ours, but whether we move out to being as much as 4 weeks behind them remains to be seen. So HM Gov't has announced today we are not four weeks behind Italy after all. Three days ago I just crunched a few numbers and fitted a few curves to the data. It wasn't difficult. HMG is only three days behind me... I guess the difference is I work weekends! 
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Mar 16, 2020 22:48:30 GMT
BBC: Dire prediction sees shift in UK strategy James Gallagher Health and science correspondent, BBC News The UK's plan has shifted because the scientific modelling showed we were on course for a "catastrophic epidemic". A strategy of just slowing the spread of the virus, but not trying to stop it, would have overwhelmed intensive care units. The modelling by Imperial College London has been heavily informed by the experience in Italy and is influencing decisions at the heart of government. Their calculations predicted 260,000 deaths in the UK. Instead the plan is to drive down the number of cases to very low levels, which the models predict will limit deaths from coronavirus to the thousands or tens of thousands. However, this approach comes with a major problem - there is no exit strategy. Without the immunity that would build up if people were infected, then cases would soar as soon as measures are lifted. The report said these could need to be in place until a vaccine is available, which could take up to 18 months. We are in this for the long haul. On a related note: www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/coronavirus-uk-strategy-deathsReverse gear for the UK? "Our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over," perhaps by as much as eight times, the report said. ""We were expecting herd immunity to build. We now realise it’s not possible to cope with that," said Professor Azra Ghani, chair of infectious diseases epidemiology at Imperial"
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KoR_Wraith
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Post by KoR_Wraith on Mar 16, 2020 23:06:39 GMT
I think we can safely assume that increased handwashing amounts to roughly 0% of national water usage. The water companies wouldn't agree. Each person uses ~2 litres per hand wash: e.g. www.south-staffs-water.co.uk/media/1539/waterusehome.pdfLet's be conservative and assume just 4 additional washes per person per day, in view of the current advice. That's an additional ~8 litres per day per person. The average person consumes around 150 litres per day at home (same reference as above). So the additional washes amount to at least 5% more home water consumption. In previous years, some water companies have struggled to meet summertime demand even without this >5% overhead. Touché! Or perhaps not... In England and Wales, an average of 150 litres of water per person per day is used in the home, in comparison with the average of 860 litres per person per day for domestic, industrial and agricultural purposes. ~8 litres per day = +0.93% extra consumption. An additional thought; February was incredibly wet this year and if memory serves then years in which water shortages occur are preceeded by unusually dry winters (rainfall during winter months replenishes aquifers).
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Mar 17, 2020 0:01:03 GMT
KoR_Wraith does that 860 litre figure account for the amount of water consumed by the food the UK imports?
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Post by bernythedolt on Mar 17, 2020 0:54:19 GMT
Leaving aside Trump's latest "We're ok, pull up the ladder, Jack" alleged exploits, it's promising that Germany might have a vaccine in the pipeline... www.hl.co.uk/news/2020/3/16/anger-as-trump-alleged-to-have-offered-$1bn-for-german-coronavirus-vaccineI've been wondering why the death rate for Germany has been so much lower than other European countries. Germany has a similar case load to Spain and France, but only around 1/10th of the deaths, or less. Been that way throughout. Enviable record. They have 5 times the number of UK infections, yet only 1/3rd of our deaths! They also beat S.Korea hands down. Germany has an extraordinarily low number of deaths. They must be doing something right or something different to the other nations. Have they perhaps been testing it on the quiet, ahead of securing 'official' approval for trials? Trump obviously believes in it (if the report is true). |
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one21
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Post by one21 on Mar 17, 2020 8:37:18 GMT
Where is all this government cash comming from, to bail out essential companies, individuals etc. I would think non essential projects such as HS2 should be put on hold for a start.
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ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Mar 17, 2020 8:41:31 GMT
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Mar 17, 2020 9:14:15 GMT
I guess the NHS can't win here. I can just imagine the newspaper headlines in normal times "shock horror, cash strapped NHS has 45,000 brand new ventilators unused in boxes"
Realistically, there is no way you can gear up to cover every eventualityif things are realy bad.
No you can't. But if the message is "we can crank the handle and re-purpose some parts of manufacturing to produce ventilators" (but god knows when), then it is a very valid question as to why you are doing that now and not say 3 weeks ago. I saw a bit on the news yesterday that mentioned JCB and Honda as potentially helping with ventilators. They look awfully complicated bits of kit, so I don't see any new entrants in the market making significant impact any time soon.
Realistically most countries have been slow to react (a couple of weeks ago France was happy to have several thousand Italian football supporters pay them a visit), and there are still those in denial (Japan's PM is still insisting that the Olympic will go ahead).
Overall the shutting down of the hospitality industry may help with more food available for the supermarkets. Also, effectively shutting down the pubs will reuce the number of hangovers, so less paracetamol being consumed unnecessarily.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Mar 17, 2020 9:15:28 GMT
Yes, if you are testing a lot of people including a high number who are not very ill and are not in high risk groups the death rate will look low, if you are predominately testing people who are already pretty ill and in high risk groups the death rate will look high. Statistics are really tricky things.
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Post by bracknellboy on Mar 17, 2020 9:36:08 GMT
No you can't. But if the message is "we can crank the handle and re-purpose some parts of manufacturing to produce ventilators" (but god knows when), then it is a very valid question as to why you are doing that now and not say 3 weeks ago. ...
Realistically most countries have been slow to react (a couple of weeks ago France was happy to have several thousand Italian football supporters pay them a visit), and there are still those in denial (Japan's PM is still insisting that the Olympic will go ahead).
... Yes, but I can't help but think that is a ploy to force the hand of the IOC to make decision for them, with whatever financial ramifications that may have.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Mar 17, 2020 10:19:49 GMT
Yes, if you are testing a lot of people including a high number who are not very ill and are not in high risk groups the death rate will look low, if you are predominately testing people who are already pretty ill and in high risk groups the death rate will look high. Statistics are really tricky things.You know what they say "there are lies, damned lies and statistics"
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2020 10:27:59 GMT
Good grief !
Just back from a large Tesco ... I'm shell shocked ... huge portions of the shop had zero stock. I got almost everything on my list which was mainly fresh fruit & veg but there was virtually no raw meat, fortunately the only thing I really wanted was liver .... quite a few packs to choose from (packs claim can't be frozen I guess the reason). Then I got told off at the checkout for having more than 5 packs of UHT Orange juce.
For others intending late evening shopping to avoid too many other people - shops are closing earlier than normal (10pm not 1am in this case).
Round our area there seems to be a run on chicken meat. All other meats are available. But no chicken to be found at Tesco, Aldi or M&S.
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KoR_Wraith
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Post by KoR_Wraith on Mar 17, 2020 11:18:08 GMT
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