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Post by bernythedolt on Mar 18, 2020 0:51:55 GMT
Interesting a propos bernythedolt that they come to estimate a case fatality rate of under 1% - which was what I was suggesting was likely (though by no means certain) back when we were discussing the figures from China. There are also suggestions of different strains having different CFRs. As we know, however, the fatalities also come from an overwhelmed health service that can't treat other eminently treatable conditions when it is dealing with tens of thousands of SARS-CoV-2 cases 1) Now that the known recorded cases in China are largely resolved, we can see their fatality rate was pretty close to 4%. [3226 deaths from 80881 recorded cases]. www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/2) The WHO Director General recently stated, "Globally, about 3.4% of reported Covid-19 cases have died". 3) The Lancet published a figure of 5.6% just five days ago: "We re-estimated mortality rates by dividing the number of deaths on a given day by the number of patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection 14 days before. On this basis, using WHO data on the cumulative number of deaths to March 1, 2020, mortality rates would be 5·6% (95% CI 5·4–5·8) for China and 15·2% (12·5–17·9) outside of China". www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30195-X/fulltextI haven't seen any mention of a rate below 1% (and find it hard to believe, given the figures being reported). Do you have a reference please? Worth bearing in mind that Case Fatality Rate is defined as number of deaths over known, recorded cases. Anything that involves guessing the possible number infected is not a CFR. That is necessary in order to provide a scientific basis for disease comparison (eg. CFR for SARS is recorded in history as 9.6%).
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Post by bernythedolt on Mar 18, 2020 1:12:10 GMT
Forget selfish panic buying, this is the sort of spirit we need to see more of:-
Somebody using their 3D printer to design & produce essential respiratory kit for hospital in desperate need...
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Vero
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Post by Vero on Mar 18, 2020 1:14:59 GMT
I found it quite disturbing today to hear medical specialist's talking about selective treatment (should we get to said point) i'm one of those that would certainly be "down" the list to get selected due to my age.. being asthmatic and not young i'm probably now being considered dispensable.  martin44 in case it is of interest or in the slightest bit helpful: The antimalarial Chloroquine (old fashioned quinine) has been indicated as a potential virus therapy/cure. Indian Tonic Water also contains quinine - I guess that’s why the Brits drank Gin & Tonic in the days of the Raj
(some newer brands reduced or removed the quinine, so check labels). I read that a scientific paper should be published in a few days on combination Chloroquine & remdesivir (antiviral) inhibiting CV19. Remdesivir not so easy to obtain, but Chloroquine should be available from a GP, EG if you were planning to visit a malaria area.
www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166354220301145?Apparently the UK stockpiled these drugs pre-Brexit, just in case, and last week banned the hoarding or parallel export of them.
Also the BMJ have cautioned against ibuprofen (or any other anti-inflammatory), as EU drs think they may aggravate things. www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m1086Some CV19 drs indicated high blood pressure is correlated, but I wonder if it is ACE inhibitors (hypertension med), as CV19 plugs ACE pathways, so inhibiting ACE seems like an invitation? Diabetics are also implicated, apparently elderly tend to higher blood sugar too, & CV19 may be involved with glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) - it seems to kick haem iron out of red blood cells.
(seems it (a) attacks oxygen intake via the lungs, and (b) takes out oxygen transport via red blood cells).
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Post by bernythedolt on Mar 18, 2020 1:28:26 GMT
Gonna be tough, but might have to increase daily intake of G&T... cheers Vero 🤣 |
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scc
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Post by scc on Mar 18, 2020 4:10:34 GMT
The world is engulfed with covid-19. Amazing how quickly this has spread. Does anyone believe the conspiracy theories? That this was a chinese bio weapon that got released by accident? It's possible, even plausible. But assuming it were true, how does it change your personal response? Not all information or speculation is of equal value.
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Post by batchoy on Mar 18, 2020 7:28:37 GMT
Interesting a propos bernythedolt that they come to estimate a case fatality rate of under 1% - which was what I was suggesting was likely (though by no means certain) back when we were discussing the figures from China. There are also suggestions of different strains having different CFRs. As we know, however, the fatalities also come from an overwhelmed health service that can't treat other eminently treatable conditions when it is dealing with tens of thousands of SARS-CoV-2 cases 1) Now that the known recorded cases in China are largely resolved, we can see their fatality rate was pretty close to 4%. [3226 deaths from 80881 recorded cases]. www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/2) The WHO Director General recently stated, "Globally, about 3.4% of reported Covid-19 cases have died". 3) The Lancet published a figure of 5.6% just five days ago: "We re-estimated mortality rates by dividing the number of deaths on a given day by the number of patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection 14 days before. On this basis, using WHO data on the cumulative number of deaths to March 1, 2020, mortality rates would be 5·6% (95% CI 5·4–5·8) for China and 15·2% (12·5–17·9) outside of China". www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30195-X/fulltextI haven't seen any mention of a rate below 1% (and find it hard to believe, given the figures being reported). Do you have a reference please? Worth bearing in mind that Case Fatality Rate is defined as number of deaths over known, recorded cases. Anything that involves guessing the possible number infected is not a CFR. That is necessary in order to provide a scientific basis for disease comparison (eg. CFR for SARS is recorded in history as 9.6%). It is worth considering South Korea's figures. At the moment their CFR is currently 1%, though their age demographic may have some part to play they have been testing very widely, far more so than other countries thus they are picking up more of the mild cases. The majority of other countries with higher CFRs appear, given their test numbers, only appear to be testing at the point of hosptalisation. The 1% figure was given by the UK CMO when briefing the Health Select Committee, he pointed out that the WHO figures are based on headine numbers and that until there is a serum test that can detect asymptomatic suffers, i.e. people of have had it but didn't suffer any or any major symptoms, who have had the virus we wont know what the true CFR is.
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james100
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Post by james100 on Mar 18, 2020 8:25:23 GMT
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Post by moonraker on Mar 18, 2020 8:45:16 GMT
Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College's MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease, and one of the experts with a very high profile at the moment, has Coronovirus. He was able to speak on the programme after some nasty symptoms over 24 hours. He's been in the same space (I'm not sure how much) as other prominent people, including the PM. He reckons that the Westminster locality is a "hotbed" for the virus. And some stores are opening early for older customers.So from wondering whether I can knock four years off my age, I can now make sure that I look it! (Seriously, I am not going to take advantage.) From the BBC website: "From Monday 23 March disabled Sainsbury's customers and those over 70 will be given priority for online delivery slots." I wonder how would one prove entitlement - and how many younger family members would piggyback on the facility. |
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m2btj
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Post by m2btj on Mar 18, 2020 8:48:52 GMT
The world is engulfed with covid-19. Amazing how quickly this has spread. Does anyone believe the conspiracy theories? That this was a chinese bio weapon that got released by accident? If this is a Chinese bio weapon they are a lot less technologically advanced than we've been led to believe. I'm sure they've got something better than this to target the elderly with underlying health conditions. More likely, the good old medieval markets (aka bio labs) selling everything & anything with a heartbeat to those who eat it dead or alive. Even a simple flu strain can travel around the world within hours in today's connected global economy. Do I expect to catch it? No! If I do will it kill me? No! I'm hoping I don't get it because I'm running low on loo roll!
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Mar 18, 2020 8:53:38 GMT
Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College's MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease, and one of the experts with a very high profile at the moment, has Coronovirus. He was able to speak on the programme after some nasty symptoms over 24 hours. He's been in the same space (I'm not sure how much) as other prominent people, including the PM. He reckons that the Westminster locality is a "hotbed" for the virus. And some stores are opening early for older customers.So from wondering whether I can knock four years off my age, I can now make sure that I look it! (Seriously, I am not going to take advantage.) From the BBC website: "From Monday 23 March disabled Sainsbury's customers and those over 70 will be given priority for online delivery slots." I wonder how would one prove entitlement - and how many younger family members would piggyback on the facility. Not sure that encouraging older customers to congregate in stores (early or at any other time) was what the government intended when they said they should self-isolate (OK, technically that doesn't kick in for a few days). And, yes, I can see family members giving their shopping list - or at least the items with temporary shortages - to their older relatives.
Edit: BBC reports about Sainsbury's "And on 19 March the first hour of shopping will be dedicated to older and vulnerable people in its 600 UK stores.". Not sure if that's a one-off, literally just 19 March, but again it's going to bring lots of the elderly together just as the government is saying they should stay isolated.
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Post by southseacompany on Mar 18, 2020 9:27:30 GMT
Does anyone believe the conspiracy theories? That this was a chinese bio weapon that got released by accident? As I've commented earlier in this thread, this may well have been an accidental release from a lab, but that in no way implies it is a weapon.
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m2btj
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Post by m2btj on Mar 18, 2020 10:00:08 GMT
Does anyone believe the conspiracy theories? That this was a chinese bio weapon that got released by accident? As I've commented earlier in this thread, this may well have been an accidental release from a lab, but that in no way implies it is a weapon. Very possibly a delayed action weapon. The first stage has induced a zombie economy which is walking toward a cliff edge. The second stage will be counting the casualties i.e. the tens of thousands who are about to lose their jobs, businesses & livelihoods. I cannot comprehend the long term effects on their mental health & physical wellbeing.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Mar 18, 2020 10:06:40 GMT
As I've commented earlier in this thread, this may well have been an accidental release from a lab, but that in no way implies it is a weapon. Very possibly a delayed action weapon. The first stage has induced a zombie economy which is walking toward a cliff edge. The second stage will be counting the casualties i.e. the tens of thousands who are about to lose their jobs, businesses & livelihoods. I cannot comprehend the long term effects on their mental health & physical wellbeing. If this was a conspiracy (and I don't believe that for a minute), I'd be asking "who stands to benefit?". Well, it sure isn't the Chinese - thousands dead, economy damaged, threat of civil unrest (luckily unfulfilled) that could have threatened the government. So, doesn't make sense for them to trigger it.
Consequences of the virus are - elderly dying in greater numbers than the young, countries closing borders, flights cancelled, people on lock-down not driving, governments spraying money at people/businesses. Suggests origin - if we're still going with conspiracies - was from a group of young, anti-globalist, socialist greens? 
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m2btj
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Post by m2btj on Mar 18, 2020 10:34:56 GMT
Very possibly a delayed action weapon. The first stage has induced a zombie economy which is walking toward a cliff edge. The second stage will be counting the casualties i.e. the tens of thousands who are about to lose their jobs, businesses & livelihoods. I cannot comprehend the long term effects on their mental health & physical wellbeing. If this was a conspiracy (and I don't believe that for a minute), I'd be asking "who stands to benefit?". Well, it sure isn't the Chinese - thousands dead, economy damaged, threat of civil unrest (luckily unfulfilled) that could have threatened the government. So, doesn't make sense for them to trigger it.
Consequences of the virus are - elderly dying in greater numbers than the young, countries closing borders, flights cancelled, people on lock-down not driving, governments spraying money at people/businesses. Suggests origin - if we're still going with conspiracies - was from a group of young, anti-globalist, socialist greens? There are people making millions from this! Start by shorting the markets and then go long just before a vaccine is announced! Maybe even the Chinese government....now there's a conspiracy for you!
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Post by spareapennyor2 on Mar 18, 2020 10:55:14 GMT
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