blender
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Post by blender on Aug 27, 2020 12:11:33 GMT
Quarantined loans
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Aug 27, 2020 12:26:56 GMT
Question - providing liquidity is not an issue- is there any point selling loans at a discount now given all BAD loans no longer can be traded out?? As things stand today, no loans held by the Access Accounts have yet been “quarantined”. I’d have thought anyone concerned at the prospect of some of their AA funds getting “locked in” would want to exit cleanly whilst they still can.
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ceejay
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Post by ceejay on Aug 27, 2020 13:15:07 GMT
Question - providing liquidity is not an issue- is there any point selling loans at a discount now given all BAD loans no longer can be traded out?? As things stand today, no loans held by the Access Accounts have yet been “quarantined”. I’d have thought anyone concerned at the prospect of some of their AA funds getting “locked in” would want to exit cleanly whilst they still can. The issue being that the incremental discount that you'd have to offer to get out right now might [very hard to estimate] be more than the value of the potentially quarantined elements. Or not. That is the question!
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Aug 27, 2020 13:26:46 GMT
Question - providing liquidity is not an issue- is there any point selling loans at a discount now given all BAD loans no longer can be traded out?? Isn't it just the NEWLY bad loans?
Newly "bad" and old ones that got worse. So a loan may be trading now with a certain %age being covered by the PF, but if in AC's opinion things got worse with the business or the outlook soured, then one being covered now could become a "locked in loan" or "Q-ed".
But there seem to be none in Q so far.
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Post by gobuchul on Aug 27, 2020 13:34:39 GMT
As things stand today, no loans held by the Access Accounts have yet been “quarantined”. I’d have thought anyone concerned at the prospect of some of their AA funds getting “locked in” would want to exit cleanly whilst they still can. The issue being that the incremental discount that you'd have to offer to get out right now might [very hard to estimate] be more than the value of the potentially quarantined elements. Or not. That is the question! Also, "quarantined" does not mean "bad" it just means "currently quarantined due to inability to fully ring-fence the entire loan default risk in using the currently available funds in the PF, ignoring any future additional funds that may be added to the PF, ignoring any future funds being released from other ring-fencing that was not needed and ignoring exactly how much of the default risk is not fully ring-fenced (all as per the very cautious FCA rules)." So not being or being in quarantine does not tell you much about anything.
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blender
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Post by blender on Aug 27, 2020 15:33:47 GMT
Exactly, just like being in quarantine because you have come back from France or Spain or Croatia tells you nothing about whether you have a virus or not. It's precautionary.
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ceejay
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Post by ceejay on Aug 27, 2020 16:11:35 GMT
Exactly, just like being in quarantine because you have come back from France or Spain or Croatia tells you nothing about whether you have a virus or not. It's precautionary. I don't think so. The quarantine on return from abroad is indeed purely precautionary - no inference is made about whether you're infected or not. Here, however, a "quarantined" loan is one which has real challenges which are not currently covered by the desired level of ringfenced PF. There IS a problem with the loan. A better analogy, if you want to go that way, would be "infected". If you have the virus then you definitely have a problem. Time will tell how serious it is.
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blender
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Post by blender on Aug 27, 2020 19:03:07 GMT
Exactly, just like being in quarantine because you have come back from France or Spain or Croatia tells you nothing about whether you have a virus or not. It's precautionary. I don't think so. The quarantine on return from abroad is indeed purely precautionary - no inference is made about whether you're infected or not. Here, however, a "quarantined" loan is one which has real challenges which are not currently covered by the desired level of ringfenced PF. There IS a problem with the loan. A better analogy, if you want to go that way, would be "infected". If you have the virus then you definitely have a problem. Time will tell how serious it is. You have a valid point ceejay. Infected would be a better analogy. So, perhaps better to use the analogy of being quarantined due to symptoms and a positive test. The main point was to explain that quarantine (exclusion from trading) does necessarily mean a loss.
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Post by stuartassetzcapital on Aug 27, 2020 21:01:06 GMT
Something as simple as a forbearance process applied to a loan where house sales were slowed by lockdown means further interest accrues that might take a loan over a loan to value hurdle, knock it into a higher risk threshold and because the interest rate cannot change the loan instead receives a capital discount. If that can’t be covered by PF cash it would get suspended from AA trading. Yet in that example case the loan was just moved back three months say to a later date of repayment by estate agents being closed. We have obligations to reprice loans when the risk changes and LTV levels are one of those tests. Does that mean any loss is guaranteed in that example ? Not in the slightest, no. So loan suspension is not the same as loan defaults. I hope that helps.
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Aug 27, 2020 21:01:26 GMT
Just noticed,
Buy at 8.30% for a deposit of £250
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Post by bradley02 on Aug 27, 2020 21:13:43 GMT
Just noticed,
Buy at 8.30% for a deposit of £250
I can't see the discounted buy rates remaining at current levels once funds flow in from the reinvestment of monthly interest next week to buy up sell orders.
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iRobot
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Post by iRobot on Aug 29, 2020 7:49:58 GMT
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Mikeme
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Post by Mikeme on Aug 29, 2020 8:39:24 GMT
Thanks and looks like good news for us all.(maybe a few want my money exceptions)
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Aug 29, 2020 8:49:36 GMT
Hang on the article says 6m£ traded but withdrawals down by £10m. ?
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Aug 29, 2020 8:54:03 GMT
Hang on the article says 6m£ traded but withdrawals down by £10m. ? ... implying a net £4m of previously queued withdrawals cancelled
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