dead-money
Rocket to the Moon
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Post by dead-money on Oct 27, 2020 8:39:32 GMT
Sold £10k at 5.6 and another £10k at 5.5 today. Interesting. I’m guessing that’s not far off the costs, including adjustments, of selling on Zopa. Levels the playing field? i suspect that if the stock market crumbles in the next few weeks risk appetite will go down and discounts go up. Apples and PineApples comparing secured property loans with unsecured personal lending.
5.6% seems to be the natural low point and probably reflects a fair valuation of the loan book in its current state. However, without new loan origination AC is in wind down mode and that value will deteriorate.
So let's hope the next email not only trumpets the #227 payouts, but doesn't scare the horses with its use of the provision funds. One can only hope that some truly new loans commence to restock the loan book.
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dead-money
Rocket to the Moon
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Post by dead-money on Oct 27, 2020 8:42:51 GMT
Interesting. I’m guessing that’s not far off the costs, including adjustments, of selling on Zopa. Levels the playing field? i suspect that if the stock market crumbles in the next few weeks risk appetite will go down and discounts go up. Or maybe investors will turn to property and discounts will go down. Much better to move here before the stock market crumbles, don't you think?
Interestingly in another investors forums I frequent, there's been alot of questions about investing into IFISAs & P2Ps recently. But that's not those looking to derisk equities, it's those with too much cash earning zero interest. And it's apparent few have their eyes wide open regarding the real and unquantifiable risks of P2P platforms.
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Post by davee39 on Oct 27, 2020 10:07:36 GMT
Two suggestions
1) Do not put money you cannot afford to lose in P2P
2) Do not put money you can afford to lose in P2P
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blender
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Post by blender on Oct 27, 2020 10:36:17 GMT
Two suggestions 1) Do not put money you cannot afford to lose in P2P 2) Do not put money you can afford to lose in P2P Yes of course, and you could say the same for the stock market. They are very different, equities and loans, which is why people should not be talking up the discount by predicting crumbling equities - it requires me to talk down the discount by pointing out the asset security here, and to suggest that if you believe that the stock market is going to crumble (not my suggestion) it is better to get out first. People will always need a house to live in and a factor in value is the low interest rate on mortgages. If the stock market should crumble, I doubt that interest rates would go up.
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iRobot
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Post by iRobot on Oct 27, 2020 11:50:40 GMT
Two suggestions 1) Do not put money you cannot afford to lose in P2P 2) Do not put money you can afford to lose in P2P Yes of course, and you could say the same for the stock market. <snip> And Mark Twain did: “ There are two times in a man’s life when he should not speculate: when he can’t afford it and when he can.” Can't imagine anyone would argue that P2P doesn't sit at the 'speculative' end of the investment spectrum.
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ceejay
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Post by ceejay on Oct 27, 2020 14:21:29 GMT
Yes of course, and you could say the same for the stock market. <snip> And Mark Twain did: “ There are two times in a man’s life when he should not speculate: when he can’t afford it and when he can.” Can't imagine anyone would argue that P2P doesn't sit at the 'speculative' end of the investment spectrum.Well, I might - if you really mean that P2P sits at the end of the spectrum. I can think of many more investments that I would consider to be more speculative than P2P (bitcoin, anyone?). IF you mean - more than 50% of the way up a scale from 0 (NS&I) to 100 (not sure what the end is... tulips?) - then possibly, though we'd need to have an extended discussion on how this particular scale is calibrated. P2P also covers quite a range on this scale, of course, with property-secured accounts with PFs at the lower end of that range.
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dead-money
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Post by dead-money on Oct 27, 2020 15:42:46 GMT
And Mark Twain did: “ There are two times in a man’s life when he should not speculate: when he can’t afford it and when he can.” Can't imagine anyone would argue that P2P doesn't sit at the 'speculative' end of the investment spectrum.Well, I might - if you really mean that P2P sits at the end of the spectrum. I can think of many more investments that I would consider to be more speculative than P2P (bitcoin, anyone?). IF you mean - more than 50% of the way up a scale from 0 (NS&I) to 100 (not sure what the end is... tulips?) - then possibly, though we'd need to have an extended discussion on how this particular scale is calibrated. P2P also covers quite a range on this scale, of course, with property-secured accounts with PFs at the lower end of that range. Yep, BitCoin and its cousins are the modern equivalent of Dutch tulip bulbs in my mind. Insane how people talk BTC up as a store of value. No intrinsic value at all.
On a scale of 0 to 100, I'd put NS&I at 10, Govt's can and do default or seize capital, P2P around 60, followed by CFDs, Spreadbets and BTC at 90, 100 would be a lottery ticket.
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blender
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Post by blender on Oct 27, 2020 15:46:23 GMT
Yes of course, and you could say the same for the stock market. <snip> And Mark Twain did: “ There are two times in a man’s life when he should not speculate: when he can’t afford it and when he can.” Can't imagine anyone would argue that P2P doesn't sit at the 'speculative' end of the investment spectrum. Yes, I have seen enough FC loans in my time to understand that some p2p lending is speculative. But I was talking about lending secured on property. Yes we can talk about valuations of development projects, but generally I would not consider lending against real property as speculative, and nor would a provider of mortgages or bridging loans. The nature of the lender does not change that, necessarily. What would you call the South Sea Bubble - equally speculative? Safe as houses - a good expression.
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Post by Harland Kearney on Oct 27, 2020 16:32:16 GMT
Buy in discount at 5.1% right now, will we break 5%?
Currently, I'm keeping my P2P exposure 10% total in my portfilio, of that 10%, 100% is AC if you discount a handful of defautled loans in FS (less than £600 worth now, lucky I got out in that one...) I'm not adding any new funds other than those gained at a discount from funds already in AC repaid on dead loans.
Of my 100% is AC, all of it is in the ISA wrapper. I've moved my Queued QAA funds into the 90DAA a few days ago as I can't see liquidity being restored in that 90 day time frame (although I can see discounts staying below 6.5% for that period, assuming no surprise emails!) Plus I am entitled to the 1% cashback offer in March if I remain invested, (would be wheather I like it or not!)
Even if I get any of this money out, I have no where to put it at the current rates. No where to invest all this cash drag. Equities are one of the only asset types right now that warrant the risk for return+ management costs of a platform (say your using it as a place to store your pension/ISA, not a trading account). I'm full on stocks right now, and healthy picked up alot of cheapies since March on the USA market.
I have a question if anybody knows, once you put in a withdrawal request notice for the 90daa, once it hits 90 days of waiting, do you get repayments whilst getting the 4.1% rate, or is it move to the QAA then repayments are restarted at the 3.75% rate? I read in the early weeks of month, that you get the 90daa as its repaid into your cash account. I'm not sure if this was changed, I hope not!
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ian
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Post by ian on Oct 27, 2020 16:58:13 GMT
You get repaid Prorata irrespective of which access account your in.
I have a question for you ..... can you transfer your ISA funds into another provider once 90 day period has lapsed .... I am just wondering if there is an overarching legal right to be able to transfer funds in an isa shroud.
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Post by Harland Kearney on Oct 27, 2020 17:03:20 GMT
You get repaid Prorata irrespective of which access account your in. I have a question for you ..... can you transfer your ISA funds into another provider once 90 day period has lapsed .... I am just wondering if there is an overarching legal right to be able to transfer funds in an isa shroud. I actually queried this before march 2020 back in 19, your investments must be in cash. However, at the time, AC said you could have your funds swept into the AA and they will release them once the incoming provider contacts them for the switch, this won't apply now though as they can't release swept funds (not even a thing anymore currently). They made no guarantees of liquidity (tongue in cheek in 2019 though) Therefore the answer your question would be no. It must be all in cash sitting in the cash account of AC's ISA earning no interest. AC allow partial ISA transfers (cleared up with below post)
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sapphire
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Post by sapphire on Oct 27, 2020 17:24:21 GMT
You get repaid Prorata irrespective of which access account your in. I have a question for you ..... can you transfer your ISA funds into another provider once 90 day period has lapsed .... I am just wondering if there is an overarching legal right to be able to transfer funds in an isa shroud. I actually queried this before march 2020 back in 19, your investments must be in cash. However, at the time, AC said you could have your funds swept into the AA and they will release them once the incoming provider contacts them for the switch, this won't apply now though as they can't release swept funds (not even a thing anymore currently). They made no guarantees of liquidity (tongue in cheek in 2019 though) Therefore the answer your question would be no. It must be all in cash sitting in the cash account of AC's ISA earning no interest. I don't know if AC like partial ISA switchouts (say only 20% of your ISA is in cash, and leave the rest invested not to be switched).Partial ISA transfers out are permitted by AC - for up to the amount in cash. I did one a couple of months ago, free of any charges. Goji processes AC's ISA transfers and were quite efficient- completed within a week of receiving the necessary documents from the new ISA provider.
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dead-money
Rocket to the Moon
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Post by dead-money on Oct 27, 2020 18:03:09 GMT
Buy in discount at 5.1% right now, will we break 5%? Currently, I'm keeping my P2P exposure 10% total in my portfilio, of that 10%, 100% is AC if you discount a handful of defautled loans in FS (less than £600 worth now, lucky I got out in that one...) I'm not adding any new funds other than those gained at a discount from funds already in AC repaid on dead loans. Of my 100% is AC, all of it is in the ISA wrapper. I've moved my Queued QAA funds into the 90DAA a few days ago as I can't see liquidity being restored in that 90 day time frame (although I can see discounts staying below 6.5% for that period, assuming no surprise emails!) Plus I am entitled to the 1% cashback offer in March if I remain invested, (would be wheather I like it or not!) Even if I get any of this money out, I have no where to put it at the current rates. No where to invest all this cash drag. Equities are one of the only asset types right now that warrant the risk for return+ management costs of a platform (say your using it as a place to store your pension/ISA, not a trading account). I'm full on stocks right now, and healthy picked up alot of cheapies since March on the USA market. I have a question if anybody knows, once you put in a withdrawal request notice for the 90daa, once it hits 90 days of waiting, do you get repayments whilst getting the 4.1% rate, or is it move to the QAA then repayments are restarted at the 3.75% rate? I read in the early weeks of month, that you get the 90daa as its repaid into your cash account. I'm not sure if this was changed, I hope not! For notice accounts, they will receive the appropriate rate 4.0% or 4.1%, or whatever's prevailing, until such time as they are fully repaid by capital or you choose to transfer them to QAA.
So it only makes sense to move to QAA if you want to exit at once with a discount. Also note that you can't select to transfer some part of a withdrawal request, it's all or nothing. So queuing up several small requests gives you more flexibility than one large one.
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Post by Harland Kearney on Oct 27, 2020 22:11:02 GMT
Thanks dead-money that clears up alot. I was under that impression, makes alot more sense to switch to 90daa and drawdown your cash in that context if you have the time. (Can't see missing out on 2-3% cash repayments over that period really meaning too much!) |
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slippery
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Post by slippery on Oct 28, 2020 0:33:48 GMT
Well, I might - if you really mean that P2P sits at the end of the spectrum. I can think of many more investments that I would consider to be more speculative than P2P (bitcoin, anyone?). IF you mean - more than 50% of the way up a scale from 0 (NS&I) to 100 (not sure what the end is... tulips?) - then possibly, though we'd need to have an extended discussion on how this particular scale is calibrated. P2P also covers quite a range on this scale, of course, with property-secured accounts with PFs at the lower end of that range. I invested in some tulips & other spring bulbs last November and have to say they were a wonderful investment, giving me priceless pleasure during "lockdown". Hoping the original investment will generate further "interest" next spring 
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