ribs
Probably not James Marshall
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Post by ribs on Jun 5, 2021 21:23:39 GMT
So I'm going to leave this here. I figured it might be an interesting discussion point for some of you:
So this is a small country, adopting Bitcoin as legal tender, holding it in the treasury, assuming the legislation passes their congress.
It's both a small and huge thing at the same time, depending on your perspective. Obviously not as big as say, USA/EU/UK/China/Russia/Whatever adopting it, but a country is now adopting it. Potentially a first small step to something huge. Maybe just a side show which doesn't change anything at all in the long run.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jun 6, 2021 8:03:39 GMT
To be used alongside the official currency, the US$. www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-57373058"President Nayib Bukele says Bitcoin will make it easier for Salvadorans living abroad to send payments home."In the short term, this will generate jobs and help provide financial inclusion to thousands outside the formal economy," Mr Bukele told a Bitcoin conference in Florida, adding that it could also boost investment to the country."Yeh, good luck with that, mate. Sounds like the plan is to make it somehow easier/cheaper/less risky to simply remit money internationally for those working (illegally?) in the US... Not quite sure how that'll happen. They could, of course, already do that without it being an "official currency". Sounds like a publicity stunt to me... |
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Jun 6, 2021 9:15:27 GMT
Re: "Regarding the FUD... it's just that. I've been hearing about Tether supposedly imploding for ... checks notes... 5 years now. Funnily enough, a USDT is still worth a USD and nothing has happened. Who knew?!" You say 5 years, ribs , but look at the market cap in the graph below. As you can see, it goes loopy only from about Spring 2020. This graph isn't even the half of it as it only goes up to February 2021. 5 years ago when you started hearing rumours, the market cap was $2,900,000. So, indeed, who cares.At the end of this graph, in February 2021, market cap was about $30,000,000,000. Thirty billion.How many USDT's are floating about now, just 4 months later? $64,000,000,000. This organisation, with 11 employees, a Bahamian bank, an invisible CEO, and no headquarters is now printing $1bn 'worth' of USDT literally every few days. This is the company that used to insist their reserves were 100% backed by US dollars, but then were forced to admit that actually they only hold 3% in USD and 97% in 'other stuff' which isn't audited. If we were to take their word for it, much of that 97% is in commercial paper, making them nearly as big as Vanguard in that respect. 11 employees. Where I totally agree with you is that USDT is " a bit useful for traders" but "basically just another shitcoin". So why on earth is it approaching the market cap of very very large financial institutions? I'm not going to be brave/stupid enough to say this is all going to blow up very shortly, as we all know crazy things in markets can persist far longer than anything rational would suggest. I also couldn't say for sure what the wider impact will be to other cryptocoins if it does go. But surely you can't blow a $60bn+ size hole in an ecosystem that uses Tether without it being a very rocky road indeed I'd posit.  Attachments:PNG (41.29 KB)
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ribs
Probably not James Marshall
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Post by ribs on Jun 6, 2021 15:52:08 GMT
This organisation, with 11 employees, a Bahamian bank, an invisible CEO, and no headquarters is now printing $1bn 'worth' of USDT literally every few days. This is the company that used to insist their reserves were 100% backed by US dollars, but then were forced to admit that actually they only hold 3% in USD and 97% in 'other stuff' which isn't audited. If we were to take their word for it, much of that 97% is in commercial paper, making them nearly as big as Vanguard in that respect. 11 employees. Cracks Knuckles... You're probably not going to like my reply to this...
I don't care. I don't own any and I have no reason to own any and I don't foresee a need to own any in the future.
Thanks for coming to my Ted Talk.
You want more? Okay.
I'm going to preface this by saying very clearly that I have not verified a single claim here. It's impossible for me to do so with any level of certainty. I don't have the tools or the smarts to say what you're reading is complete rubbish, or is a very real warning sign. With Bitcoin, I can audit the total supply with one command to my node. Here? I have no idea, it's not possible. This is the stark comparison between Bitcoin and stupid sh*tcoins/fiat money.
So let's, for argument's sake, say everything you have said and everything you are reading is in complete good faith and 100% accurate. I'm not saying you're a liar, or your sources are wrong, I'm just saying I'm too lazy and stupid to care enough to check anything whatsoever.
With that out of the way... I keep being told, including this very forum that the money the The Fed is magicking out of thin air doesn't matter, inflation is under control ( it's really not and you're being lied to) and everything is fine and I'm an idiot trying to sell Tulips during a mania. Tether is actually behaving just like The Fed; supposedly magicking more money out of thin air whenever they feel like it. If the concerns are true, then Tether is just doing what The Fed is doing, it's just that the scale is different. That's it. It's fraud in both cases, and when you concentrate power to that level you are absolutely going to find corruption (see my RibsCoin arguments earlier). If you're okay with one you need to be okay with the other, otherwise you're a hypocrite. There is no gray area here in my eyes, if you're okay with one, you must be okay with the other.
Interestingly you seem to be stuck on the 11 employees thing. How many people do you think Tether needs? It could run with literally one. It's a brave new world where the code really can be law and you don't need an office, a support team, anything. I keep joking but I could literally set up RibsCoin tomorrow and it'll just "run" itself without any input from me. They own the ability to create new coins whenever they like, after that, the blockchain runs itself. It's not difficult once it is setup. All the rules are enforced by the blockchain/smart contract. If you want to do something beyond the rules already defined, then the answer is "no". Simple as that. You need to open your horizons a bit more on that one. Doesn't matter if it's 11 people or 11,000 people. The number of people behind some pointless sh*tcoin is the least of my concerns.
In any case, Bitcoin fixes this, Tether is just copying the problems of the USD. You cannot produce more than the 6.25 bitcoin every 10ish minutes if you happen to be fortunate enough to be the miner who find the block the fastest. Doesn't matter who you are, what connections you have, how rich or important you think you are. 10 minutes. 6.25 bitcoin. That's it, that's the limit. And literally anybody can validate it. If you try to mine an invalid block, the network will reject it and everything will carry on as normal.
If Tether goes pop, whatever that looks like, what effect will it have? I suspect a lot of money will flow into the other "stable"coins out there, and a lot of money will flow into Bitcoin and out of the useless sh*tcoins as fear takes over, and I suspect that the price will be a wild ride for a few days/weeks/months, and it'll be possible to pick up some cheap bitcoins. And I also suspect people will learn a few painful lessons. And yet more people will learn what money actually is and what it should do, and prehaps not be suckered in to stupid schemes like this. Although I do a lousy job of predicting the future, so pay no attention to this entire paragraph.
But Bitcoin won't care. 10 Minutes. New block. 6.25 Bitcoin created. Bitcoin won't stop, it doesn't have any "circuit breakers", it'll work as it did before and will show it's true anti-fragile nature. Tick tock, tick tock: Bitcoin's heartbeat continues and it care who you are or what you think.
In a somewhat unrelated note... In case anyone wants an update on the M1 money situation, you can't anymore, they've changed the way it's measured (sounds familiar) instead it's now M1SL, whatever that means. Although the graph looks very similar to the old one. Here's the link: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL See that massive spike at the end? Now tell me with a straight face that this isn't going to cause massive problems in the future, and I'll sell you a RibsCoin, they are on sale, don't you know...
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Jun 6, 2021 17:01:49 GMT
With that out of the way... I keep being told, including this very forum that the money the The Fed is magicking out of thin air doesn't matter, inflation is under control ( it's really not and you're being lied to) and everything is fine and I'm an idiot trying to sell Tulips during a mania. Tether is actually behaving just like The Fed; supposedly magicking more money out of thin air whenever they feel like it. If the concerns are true, then Tether is just doing what The Fed is doing, it's just that the scale is different. That's it. It's fraud in both cases, and when you concentrate power to that level you are absolutely going to find corruption (see my RibsCoin arguments earlier). If you're okay with one you need to be okay with the other, otherwise you're a hypocrite. There is no gray area here in my eyes, if you're okay with one, you must be okay with the other. I'm not sure I agree with that, and I don't think there's any hypocrisy involved. There are substantive differences between the Fed and an outfit like Tether:- 1. I'd rather have a claim on the US than a claim on Tether. 2. The FED ostensibly buys bonds (and so gains an asset) and / or supports US government spending (a real world good) with that cash. I am concerned about inflation. I don't think we necessarily understand how QE will play out in the long term, and I am very worried about what will happen to asset prices when QE is eventually unwound. I'd still take a dollar bill over Tether (or Bitcoin, or any shitcoin) any day of the week. In fact, if I was that worried about inflation and fiat money creation I'd buy gold over any crypto-currency. But I'm not. At least for now. Still, it's always good to hear the counter-argument presented  .
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ribs
Probably not James Marshall
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Post by ribs on Jun 6, 2021 17:56:13 GMT
There are substantive differences between the Fed and an outfit like Tether:- 1. I'd rather have a claim on the US than a claim on Tether. 2. The FED ostensibly buys bonds (and so gains an asset) and / or supports US government spending (a real world good) with that cash. Point 1: Agreed. If the choice is actual dollars or Tether and nothing else, I'd go with actual dollars unless I felt there was a risk of the my assets being seized.
Point 2...
Where did "that cash" come from? Who earned it, and how?
We know the answer: Someone typed it into a computer. Two minutes of work, for trillions of dollars that didn't exist two minutes prior. Tether does it, The Fed does it. Same process, just different scale. There is some nuance in difference there of course, but it's fundamentally the same.
Where the money goes is somewhat irrelevant; it's not going into my pocket, others are getting the cash and by time I see it the prices have already increased, so it doesn't really matter. I have to work for that money. You have to work for that money. They don't have to work for that money. It's magicked into existence. No work, no effort.
It's not right, and it's not fair. It's corruption, at the very core, from where everything else stems.
And that's why I bitcoin.
If you chose gold instead, sure, whatever you're more comfortable with. Bitcoin is better gold in my opinion (easier to move, verify, audit, spend), but both are opt outs of a disgusting system which only serves those at the top and steals from everyone else with inflation.
I consider gold bugs to be allies to the cause, I know several people who own both. No need to be at loggerheads over the matter, although some (Peter Schiff and his silly twitter account being a prime example) like to create silly drama for some reason.
I think the bigger risk is that I might actually be correct. You do seem to have a plan for that situation.
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Post by mfaxford on Jun 6, 2021 18:25:20 GMT
With that out of the way... I keep being told, including this very forum that the money the The Fed is magicking out of thin air doesn't matter, inflation is under control ( it's really not and you're being lied to) and everything is fine and I'm an idiot trying to sell Tulips during a mania. Tether is actually behaving just like The Fed; supposedly magicking more money out of thin air whenever they feel like it. If the concerns are true, then Tether is just doing what The Fed is doing, it's just that the scale is different. That's it. It's fraud in both cases, and when you concentrate power to that level you are absolutely going to find corruption (see my RibsCoin arguments earlier). If you're okay with one you need to be okay with the other, otherwise you're a hypocrite. There is no gray area here in my eyes, if you're okay with one, you must be okay with the other. I think the difference there is that the Fed/BoE etc will create money based on some policy with the backing of their local government and in a way that's (relatively) easily auditable and the effects of creating currency is understood and taken into account. The suggestion is that the small group that is Tether can potentially create coins with a supposed 1USD value with no other oversight, limited auditing and potentially without regard for the consequences if they have more coins than their backing allows for. The question is what's the likelihood and effect if there's a run on the Bank in either situation. In the USD/EUR/GBP world a run is likely to be on an individual bank based on it's performance rather than on the currency itself. With Tether then if it turns out the company Tether doesn't have full backing for all it's currency then we could see it quickly collapse if a few large holders decide they want to get out. I wonder if the other assets Tether has is something like BTC which as we all know has a volatile value at best. If a month ago they had a 1USDT = 1USD a month ago that was fully backed (50% USD and 50% BTC). Then that won't be fully backed any more unless they've taken some other action (sold that BTC at the peak so it's now 100% USD, bought more BTC, reduced the USDT in circulation). In any case, Bitcoin fixes this, Tether is just copying the problems of the USD. You cannot produce more than the 6.25 bitcoin every 10ish minutes if you happen to be fortunate enough to be the miner who find the block the fastest. Doesn't matter who you are, what connections you have, how rich or important you think you are. 10 minutes. 6.25 bitcoin. That's it, that's the limit. And literally anybody can validate it. If you try to mine an invalid block, the network will reject it and everything will carry on as normal. But that's not exactly true. How many BTC am I likely to earn with my £500 laptop, or even a £2000 Gaming PC? If I mine on my own then I've got next to zero chance of creating a new block in the next year (or century). If I joined a pool then maybe I'll earn a couple of satoshi but i'm unlikely to cover the electric bill that way. The only real way to mine BTC successfully is with the latest ASIC miners which aren't cheap - and you probably need a few of them in a pool with many others to have a chance of getting a share of any blocks. So these days it does matter how rich you are. You could mine some of the smaller coins with a modest outlay but you're likely looking at a decent machine and graphics card to have much success so it's still not a cheap way to make money.
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ribs
Probably not James Marshall
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Post by ribs on Jun 6, 2021 18:31:12 GMT
But that's not exactly true. How many BTC am I likely to earn with my £500 laptop, or even a £2000 Gaming PC? If I mine on my own then I've got next to zero chance of creating a new block in the next year (or century). If I joined a pool then maybe I'll earn a couple of satoshi but i'm unlikely to cover the electric bill that way. The only real way to mine BTC successfully is with the latest ASIC miners which aren't cheap - and you probably need a few of them in a pool with many others to have a chance of getting a share of any blocks. So these days it does matter how rich you are. You could mine some of the smaller coins with a modest outlay but you're likely looking at a decent machine and graphics card to have much success so it's still not a cheap way to make money. Why do you think that mining is the only way to earn Bitcoin?
I've earned bitcoin and I've never mined it.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Jun 6, 2021 18:57:37 GMT
Interesting points but yeah, big surprise, I have to agree with registerme and mfaxford I completely agree that inflation is higher than is officially presented. I also agree that the USA is printing money like crazy. As well as possibly generating high ongoing inflation, it also possibly risks their long term status as the World's reserve currency. Where we diverge is on the corruption/equivalence aspect. I'm afraid I don't feel it's hypocritical in the slightest to entrust the democratically elected Government of the USA (and pals) to print money out of thin air more than I do a bunch of bandidos (of whatever number) in the Bahamas doing the same for their own benefit. I also have to strongly disagree with the idea of presenting Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in general as some sort of saviour to the World's troubles. It couldn't be further from the truth in my opinion. If anyone wants to look, what you'll find is substantive and very real stories that show crypto is enabling ransomware (Biden on that one recently), is environmentally damaging (esp. Bitcoin) and is enabling a cesspool of fraud through unregulated exchanges. The only reasons anyone touches the stuff in real life is either because they'll think it'll make them rich in fiat currency or because they want to hide/transfer/extort ill-gotten gains. If anything, it's becoming a cult (see below for the recent Bitcoin conference): |
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Jun 6, 2021 19:26:07 GMT
But that's not exactly true. How many BTC am I likely to earn with my £500 laptop, or even a £2000 Gaming PC? If I mine on my own then I've got next to zero chance of creating a new block in the next year (or century). If I joined a pool then maybe I'll earn a couple of satoshi but i'm unlikely to cover the electric bill that way. The only real way to mine BTC successfully is with the latest ASIC miners which aren't cheap - and you probably need a few of them in a pool with many others to have a chance of getting a share of any blocks. So these days it does matter how rich you are. You could mine some of the smaller coins with a modest outlay but you're likely looking at a decent machine and graphics card to have much success so it's still not a cheap way to make money. Why do you think that mining is the only way to earn Bitcoin?
I've earned bitcoin and I've never mined it.
How?
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ribs
Probably not James Marshall
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Post by ribs on Jun 6, 2021 19:39:11 GMT
Why do you think that mining is the only way to earn Bitcoin?
I've earned bitcoin and I've never mined it.
How? Do work, get paid, just like anything else.
For example, some guy asked for some technical help online. He insisted on paying me after I helped for some reason. I gave him a bitcoin address, he sent around $100 worth (he was American). I never knew his real name or very much about him at all really, he never knew mine.
It's never been a lot of money, it's never been constant for me. Some people do legit earn their income 100% in bitcoin. You could use a service like bitwage if you don't want to onboard your employer, but at that point you may as well just get paid in fiat currency and just buy the damned bitcoin after the fact. If you're a bit of a nomad I suspect that service is a bit more appealing.
Mining is actually a pretty lousy way to earn bitcoin these days. I wouldn't want to do it.
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ribs
Probably not James Marshall
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Post by ribs on Jun 6, 2021 20:29:51 GMT
Where we diverge is on the corruption/equivalence aspect. I'm afraid I don't feel it's hypocritical in the slightest to entrust the democratically elected Government of the USA (and pals) to print money out of thin air more than I do a bunch of bandidos (of whatever number) in the Bahamas doing the same for their own benefit. The Fed is a private firm. They are both creating money out of thin air and giving it to their friends. It's corruption, whichever way you look at it. I also have to strongly disagree with the idea of presenting Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in general as some sort of saviour to the World's troubles. It couldn't be further from the truth in my opinion. Not all of them. Of course not. Just the money. But that in itself is quite a big deal. If anyone wants to look, what you'll find is substantive and very real stories that show crypto is enabling ransomware (Biden on that one recently), is environmentally damaging (esp. Bitcoin) and is enabling a cesspool of fraud through unregulated exchanges. By that logic you need to be critical of the USD, not Bitcoin. Far more fraud is committed using USD than bitcoin. Far more environmental damage (and bitcoin's role in the "damage" has been vastly overstated IMO). Far more drug buying. Far more supporting of terrorism. You don't blame Ford because someone used their Focus to run someone over in a crime. That doesn't make sense. The only reasons anyone touches the stuff in real life is either because they'll think it'll make them rich in fiat currency or because they want to hide/transfer/extort ill-gotten gains. Very disappointing to read that. I thought I made it clear that's absolutely not my position. And there are plenty of others who think like me. If anything, it's becoming a cult (see below for the recent Bitcoin conference): Max is... yeah... kinda cringe. Every community has it's crazies, rude people, and idiots. Even this one. This is not a dig at you, you've been very civil and I thank you for that, not everyone in this thread has been able to extend that courtesy.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Jun 6, 2021 21:40:19 GMT
The only reasons anyone touches the stuff in real life is either because they'll think it'll make them rich in fiat currency or because they want to hide/transfer/extort ill-gotten gains. Max is... yeah... kinda cringe. Every community has it's crazies, rude people, and idiots. Even this one. This is not a dig at you, you've been very civil and I thank you for that, not everyone in this thread has been able to extend that courtesy. Likewise, and notwithstanding everything else, I'm willing to concede that you and presumably some others do genuinely believe there's some good there. I certainly hope something more very clearly positive to all comes out of it at some point. Even in it's best light I don't personally see a currency that plays entirely out of Government's hands as a positive development. As flawed as they may be, we have rules/regulations/law for reasons, and I think those reasons are being played out with crypto at present. To me, Crypto's resurgence in the last year or two is just part of the same truly wacky investing landscape that has seen surges in NFT's, meme stonks (AMC/GME etc), growth stocks and even vanilla property prices to some extent. Certainly interesting times.
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ribs
Probably not James Marshall
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Post by ribs on Jun 6, 2021 21:42:51 GMT
I'm going to leave this here and sign off for the day. Thanks for the chat. I don't know when I'll next be on. I'm probably going a little off topic from the "Bitcoin alternative to P2P" but I'm sure someone will give a virtual telling off if needed. This is Bitcoin centric, but not investing per say. Below is a video from Jack. Jack is a wearing a hoodie (that's his a style and is about as smartly dressed as he gets) and he is swearing a fair bit in this video so consider yourself warned if you have sensitive ears. Jack has spent quite a while setting up a service called Strike, which allows free and instant remittance from person to person, country to country, using Bitcoin as a backend (specifically a technology called "lightning" which allows super fast and super cheap Bitcoin transactions), which circumvents the extremely slow and expensive offerings from the traditional banking system. He's recently spent a time in El Salvador, helping some communities use Bitcoin to save on remittance fees from releatives abroad, which are sometimes high as 50%, as well as helping the locals to set up a circular economy which trades primarily in Bitcoin, and he is possibly a big part of the reason for yesterday's announcement. These people are not wealthy, they don't have their own currency and rely on the US dollar. When prices rise, through inflation or other means, they suffer, way more than we do. 70% of the population doesn't even have a bank account. The country has had a ... interesting... history which I've recently started to learn about. I'm not going to pretend to be an expert but I will say every nation on Earth has its regrets and skeletons in the closet so I'm a little cautious about the government being a part of this. Jack is a true bitcoiner. He really "gets" it, more than I do, and you can feel his emotion when he's talking about this. You can talk about Hodl, inflation, corruption, ransomware, drugs, lambos, "wen moon" and number go up all you like. But this is a real problem that bitcoin really solves for these people who are otherwise somewhat trapped with their lot in life by the existing system. These people can now really own money and be in control of it, something which they simply cannot do otherwise. Strike's website: strike.me/Jack's announcement yesterday: youtu.be/sIHYbyErQXU |
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macq
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Post by macq on Jun 6, 2021 22:19:01 GMT
I get the point above that the people of EL Salvador etc suffer when due to relying on the Dollar they are hit when prices rise or inflation etc - but don't they suffer the same if the price of Bitcoin drops 20% in a week? So is there any real difference
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