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Post by mfaxford on May 20, 2021 11:27:46 GMT
I can't believe anybody could sink $1.5bn into any venture without researching it to the n th degree. To then feign a sudden epiphany over Bitcoin being an energy guzzler, a bolt from the blue that nobody's been pointing out for months... that really takes the biscuit. There seems to be a lot of thought within the crypto communities that most of the energy used for mining bitcoin is green as a lot is using Chinese Hydro power or Icelandic geo-thermal. I've also seen arguments that the fiat banking world uses more power than crypto mining. I'm not sure I believe either of those arguments (or at least don't think they're good arguments). In terms of green energy, even if it's green energy it's still using a lot of it and that's energy that could be better used for heating and lighting removing the need for many of those coal power stations still being built in China. As for the energy used for fiat vs crypto it's ignoring the scale of both. In terms of energy used per user/account/transaction there's going to be a huge difference.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on May 20, 2021 12:07:19 GMT
The last thing I saw (will see if I can fish out a link) suggested that BTC mining alone consumed more than 14 times as much energy as Google's global operations.
I wonder which is more useful?
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on May 20, 2021 12:21:22 GMT
Just to drop in a good piece I've just read on BitcoinIncluding one argument I haven't heard before: "China, Iran and Russia are playing the dominant role in the world of cryptocurrency. In the last week of April, mining pools based in China accounted for roughly 90% of the processing power (“hash rate”) in the Bitcoin network. Roughly three weeks ago, a power outage in the Xinjiang region of China resulted in a plunge in global Bitcoin processing. Bitcoin mining — the process of record keeping for the “immutable” chain of record on which the Bitcoin network depends — is dominated by entities in countries with the stated objective to harm the interests of the United States. Bitcoin proponents continuously assure us that this is “just about to change,” but the data has not shifted in a meaningful manner in the last five years. This is not a decentralized system. It is centralized in the countries that seek our destruction"Personally, partially due to my belief that Crypto is a sack of old balls, I've just bought some gold as a bit of a diversifier. Suspect this is where the crypto fans will end up in their endless quest to escape fiat currency. <Where's a rolling eye emoji when you need one?> |
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littleoldlady
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Post by littleoldlady on May 20, 2021 12:45:12 GMT
Crypto currencies are non-governmental fiat currencies. What defines a fiat currency is not that it is issued by a government, it is that it has no intrinsic value. Cryptos have even less intrinsic value than other currencies because you cannot even burn them to keep warm.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on May 20, 2021 13:27:40 GMT
I'm just looking back through the thread for something (which I didn't find), but did find these... But then in my simple thinking the more it gets ramped up to a silly price then the less chance it gets used widely in everyday use - but i guess someone will explain why not? Because very few real-world businesses see the benefit in taking the risk of accepting crypto payments...? Unless your target customer is an outright cryptogeek, and not taking them will see their business go elsewhere, what's the point? BC investors won't do such workaday things as actually spend them... www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55939972So Telsa have spent $1.5b on Bitcoin. I can't help that think they might have put that capital to better use. But I guess it might turn out to be the speculative punt of the century? Given that St Elon's fanboys leap at anything he does, I can see this announcement itself giving the market a real kick up the chuff to ever sillier heights. Then St Elon will sell. Quietly? If it's public, there will be a collapse... Am I psychic, or was this all mahoosively easily predictable? As for the whole proof-of-work mullarkey, what I was looking for was an article I read a little while back about how it's possible to basically price miners out of the market, using relatively low computing power. I unremember the precise details - I'm not sure it was the "51% attack" that's been around for a few years, and which academics upgraded to 21% last autumn, but it might have been. www.theblockcrypto.com/post/86873/blockchain-denial-of-service-attack-miners Basically, if the US gov't decided to squash all blockchain based PoW cryptos, they could do so without breaking much of a sweat. How that aligns with the geopolitics angle, I leave to those far more highly paid than me. |
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littleoldlady
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Post by littleoldlady on May 20, 2021 17:36:10 GMT
As for the whole proof-of-work mullarkey, what I was looking for was an article I read a little while back about how it's possible to basically price miners out of the market, using relatively low computing power. . Just wait for quantum computers.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on May 20, 2021 17:45:34 GMT
As for the whole proof-of-work mullarkey, what I was looking for was an article I read a little while back about how it's possible to basically price miners out of the market, using relatively low computing power. . Just wait for quantum computers. For the miners, or the anti-miners?
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littleoldlady
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Post by littleoldlady on May 20, 2021 20:55:38 GMT
Just wait for quantum computers. For the miners, or the anti-miners? I suppose that if quantum computers can mine bitcoin in a very short time then the price will collapse (but I know very little about bitcoin mining)
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macq
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Post by macq on May 20, 2021 21:23:16 GMT
With people buying Dogecoin or collecting NFT of NBA highlights in some cases for hundreds/thousands of $ but which can be found for free elsewhere on the net looking at quantum thinking might be setting the bar a bit high
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Post by bracknellboy on May 20, 2021 21:31:34 GMT
For the miners, or the anti-miners? I suppose that if quantum computers can mine bitcoin in a very short time then the price will collapse (but I know very little about bitcoin mining) I'm not sure that Quantum computers would necessarily make a difference to the speed of mining. But I know very little about bit coin mining (other than it seems like a monumentallu stupid way for society to use up its 'stock' of remaining carbon allowance before the world collapses). Quantum computers are not necessarily faster than traditional digital computers for all things. There are however types of problems which would be outside the ability of digital computer algorithm to do in any realistic timescale which quantum computers could chew up and spit out before their morning croissant is needed. They are different paradigms and it would be wrong to characterise quantum computing as simply providing 'much faster computers'. You probably know this.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on May 25, 2021 9:04:15 GMT
Last night I went down a real Crypto rabbit hole, and found some rather startling stuff. I'm now rather more convinced that Crypto is going to explode at some point. The reason why is due to what's going on at Tether. Tether is a firm that offers a 'stablecoin' called USDT. It's a significant part of the crypto eco-system, with a $58bn market cap. USDT is theoretically pegged to the dollar and meant to act as the place crypto enthusiasts switch their funds into when they want to sell out of bitcoin/ethereum et al to somewhere, well, stable. 1 USDT = 1 US$ is the idea, and Tether keeps dollar reserves equivalent to the number of USDT's in circulation to keep it stable. The trouble is that these reserves don't really exist, certainly not in dollar form. What they claim exists as collateral has not been verified by anyone as they sit unregulated. They initially claimed to be 100% backed by US$, but now claim to have 3% dollars and much of the rest as commercial paper (mostly) as reserve, but the amount they would have to have to make this true would put them near par with Vanguard. They have no known physical offices in the World, no normal bank will handle their funds (they currently use a Bahamian bank), and they are have had and indeed do have numerous legal problems. The scary thing is that they almost act like a central bank in the crypto space. They have the ability to magic USDT out of thin air to be used to buy crypto and inflate prices. Everyone has to trust them that there really is something there to guarantee those tokens if everyone wants to sell at once. What is interesting is that 3 days ago, despite the huge sell-off of crypto, Tether issued 1 billion $ worth of USDT due to 'institutional demand', which is 'fortunate' as otherwise the whole thing could have collapsed. I'll stop there, as this blog post covers it excellently, but suffice to say this is a very murky looking operation indeed. I would expect to hear an awful lot more in the mainstream about Tether in the fairly near future. The amazing thing is, this is all mostly known and understood by the bitcoin community. An open secret, you can google it and check all of this stuff. It's just that no-one cares whilst money is being made as everyone is gaining from all of this "coin printer go brrr" activity (oh, the irony). edit: As it was written so succinctly here, I'll repeat it be more explicit about what is alleged here. Deltec is the aforementioned Bahamian bank.
"So, we always knew that Tethers were conjured ex nihilo, used to purchase Bitcoins, and used to run up the price of Bitcoin. What we did not know for sure was how they were profiting from it: dumping Bitcoin into the market and getting real USD was one possible answer. Well, thanks to Deltec, we now know how this scam operates, soup to nuts. Here we go...
Tether creates Tethers backed by absolutely nothing
Tether (and other conspirators) use Tethers to buy Bitcoin via exchanges
This leaves Tether with Bitcoins which it has acquired at no cost, and it also pushes the price of Bitcoin ever higher
Meanwhile, the not at all shady folks at Deltec, seem to be doing a line in wealth management, including offering Bitcoin as an investment vehicle. Deltec exchanges inflowing real USD capital from investors, for Bitcoins which Tether bought for no cost, with Tether vending machine tokens.
The real money Tether receives for their Bitcoins, bought with unbacked worthless Tethers, will be pointed to in their document filings as constituting part of the USD backing for Tether.
The more Tether pumps up the price of Bitcoin, the more demand Deltec has to hold it, and the more real money Tether can extract for their Bitcoins. If you think about it, by liquidating their Bitcoins this way, Tether avoids the problem of selling into a market, they are working to inflate"
edit2: To their credit, the FT have covered some of this in an article that had escaped my attention. |
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Post by lotus_eater on May 25, 2021 11:59:39 GMT
Last night I went down a real Crypto rabbit hole, and found some rather startling stuff. I'm now rather more convinced that Crypto is going to explode at some point. The reason why is due to what's going on at Tether. Tether is a firm that offers a 'stablecoin' called USDT. It's a significant part of the crypto eco-system, with a $58bn market cap. USDT is theoretically pegged to the dollar and meant to act as the place crypto enthusiasts switch their funds into when they want to sell out of bitcoin/ethereum et al to somewhere, well, stable. 1 USDT = 1 US$ is the idea, and Tether keeps dollar reserves equivalent to the number of USDT's in circulation to keep it stable. The trouble is that these reserves don't really exist, certainly not in dollar form. What they claim exists as collateral has not been verified by anyone as they sit unregulated. They initially claimed to be 100% backed by US$, but now claim to have 3% dollars and much of the rest as commercial paper (mostly) as reserve, but the amount they would have to have to make this true would put them near par with Vanguard. They have no known physical offices in the World, no normal bank will handle their funds (they currently use a Bahamian bank), and they are have had and indeed do have numerous legal problems. The scary thing is that they almost act like a central bank in the crypto space. They have the ability to magic USDT out of thin air to be used to buy crypto and inflate prices. Everyone has to trust them that there really is something there to guarantee those tokens if everyone wants to sell at once. What is interesting is that 3 days ago, despite the huge sell-off of crypto, Tether issued 1 billion $ worth of USDT due to 'institutional demand', which is 'fortunate' as otherwise the whole thing could have collapsed. I'll stop there, as this blog post covers it excellently, but suffice to say this is a very murky looking operation indeed. I would expect to hear an awful lot more in the mainstream about Tether in the fairly near future. The amazing thing is, this is all mostly known and understood by the bitcoin community. An open secret, you can google it and check all of this stuff. It's just that no-one cares whilst money is being made as everyone is gaining from all of this "coin printer go brrr" activity (oh, the irony). edit: As it was written so succinctly here, I'll repeat it be more explicit about what is alleged here. Deltec is the aforementioned Bahamian bank.
"So, we always knew that Tethers were conjured ex nihilo, used to purchase Bitcoins, and used to run up the price of Bitcoin. What we did not know for sure was how they were profiting from it: dumping Bitcoin into the market and getting real USD was one possible answer. Well, thanks to Deltec, we now know how this scam operates, soup to nuts. Here we go...
Tether creates Tethers backed by absolutely nothing
Tether (and other conspirators) use Tethers to buy Bitcoin via exchanges
This leaves Tether with Bitcoins which it has acquired at no cost, and it also pushes the price of Bitcoin ever higher
Meanwhile, the not at all shady folks at Deltec, seem to be doing a line in wealth management, including offering Bitcoin as an investment vehicle. Deltec exchanges inflowing real USD capital from investors, for Bitcoins which Tether bought for no cost, with Tether vending machine tokens.
The real money Tether receives for their Bitcoins, bought with unbacked worthless Tethers, will be pointed to in their document filings as constituting part of the USD backing for Tether.
The more Tether pumps up the price of Bitcoin, the more demand Deltec has to hold it, and the more real money Tether can extract for their Bitcoins. If you think about it, by liquidating their Bitcoins this way, Tether avoids the problem of selling into a market, they are working to inflate"
edit2: To their credit, the FT have covered some of this in an article that had escaped my attention. The problem with Tether I think really started back in 2018 when they fell out with their auditors who figured out there was not a 1:1 relationship with the USD. It spiraled from there from what I can tell. I still can't believe people are putting huge sums of money in to it, yet still they do. Billions of dollars. There are people much more crypto-literate than me doing it though, so perhaps there's something I'm missing? I'm relatively new to Crypto investing (been studying hard the last 5 or 6 months and getting more confused than I was to start I think) but I think if I were going into stablecoins right now it would be USDC. Reason being it's US companies that issue them, and they are backed 1:1 with USD deposits which is "attested to" (whatever that means) by Grant Thornton. Visa is also starting to accept it to settle transactions, which is interesting. It has over $30b in it to date I think, which is not pocket change. If someone has the inclination (and the apatite for risk) they can get close to 13% return by loaning them on platforms like Celsius or Youhodler. I guess that would depend totally on how you view the crypto space as a whole though. USDC is issued by regulated financial institutions (which translates to USA Crypto brokers), but the crypto itself is not regulated at all of course. Personally I'm still not in a place that I could put a lot of capital into USDC and be able to sleep at night. But maybe one day, who knows. On the PoW/PoS discussion from this thread: It seems to me that Proof of Stake will win out eventually over Proof of Work as it just makes more sense, much less computing power required so the "green thing" is less of an issue, and staking can be moved around the world at the flick of a switch, which means it is less susceptible to government intervention like huge mining farms are. Ethereum will move from PoW to PoS this year most likely, which will kill the minors of that for sure. Unfortunately Bitcoin can't be moved easily to PoS so that's going to drag on it eventually. Crypto is still the wild west of investing to me, which can be shocked and killed by a host of things (19th of May shows what happens when a bit of news from China comes out). I never even took it seriously (even by Vegas standards) until recently. Probably still don't take it "really" seriously but I've decided to buy in to this last crash (with gambling money) as I think there is opportunity to profit big in the short to medium term (2-5 years) if things do go right, but I'm under no illusion that it could go south very quickly and see my capital do a disappearing act. No risk-no reward though so it's all relative. I have bought zero bitcoin as I don't think it's going to be the eventual winner. That's just my (relatively) uneducated opinion. Still new at this but enjoying reading & learning from what some of you more experienced folks write.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on May 25, 2021 14:40:34 GMT
lotus_eater ref: "I still can't believe people are putting huge sums of money in to it, yet still they do. Billions of dollars. There are people much more crypto-literate than me doing it though, so perhaps there's something I'm missing?" I don't think you are. Judging by this sort of reddit thread most participants seem quite aware of the Tether situation, yet they either think they're ok because they're using it sparingly or that as you suggest, they use an alternative. The other interesting trend from that thread that some highlight is that it's difficult to avoid using it even if you don't ideally want to in some cases. It seems beyond doubt that Tether is a time-bomb. They can't forever just generate cash from nothing and get away with it. As one observer suggested, it wouldn't be surprising to see them close up shop claiming to have been hacked in the near future, disappearing off with a very large suitcase of cash* The question is whether the risk to crypto is as systemic as the blog I linked to suggests it is. It's difficult to tell exactly, but having their informal equivalent of the FED money magic machine disappear in a puff of smoke is going to make for very interesting viewing. This story makes the P2P industry look as wholesome as the Hovis ad by comparison. *Well, probably Dogecoin actually 
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on May 25, 2021 14:49:42 GMT
Am I missing something?
If you put money into a "crypto" that's promised to be 1:1 with US$... why not just put your money into US$?
If there was a sustainable 13% return on investing those 1:1 US$ crypto, then why isn't/wouldn't that be available from US$ as well...?
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on May 25, 2021 15:02:38 GMT
Am I missing something? If you put money into a "crypto" that's promised to be 1:1 with US$... why not just put your money into US$? If there was a sustainable 13% return on investing those 1:1 US$ crypto, then why isn't/wouldn't that be available from US$ as well...? Others who have actually dabbled can probably comment more authoritatively, but as I understand it, it's a way of 'going to cash' and without the pain/hassle/cost of actually selling and buying crypto for real money. Putting crypto you wish to actually spend into a stable form otherwise is not quick, cost-free and without hassle. I wouldn't be surprised if there's some element of tax avoidance attempts going on there too, but that's me speculating. Appreciate the above sounds like total garbled nonsense for an asset class which claims to be a currency. But, hey ho, there it is. Re: The 'interest' you can earn, well quite. I was told by someone with a virtual straight face that he didn't understand why people didn't just keep their fiat in a stablecoin instead of a savings account because the interest rate is much higher. I explained the relationship between risk and reward and suggested to him that the risk he was running with stablecoins might be higher than he appreciated given that. Quite a bit higher by the look of all of this.
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