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Post by captainconfident on Feb 23, 2022 18:58:59 GMT
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Post by gramsky on Feb 23, 2022 19:46:01 GMT
I am interested to know whether you views expressed on p1 of this thread have changed, gramsky. No, but it is a many faceted and complex situation going back through 70+ years of history which I have not the time to write about here at present and if I had, and the ability, I would be a journalist. On the immediate situation in Ukraine I say the following:- Imagine the whole of Ireland gained independence from British rule as one country without partition back in the last century. It cuts all ties with us and applies to join the Soviet Union, our enemy who is surrounding us, and who wish to install military bases and missiles in Ireland pointing at us. But the protestant separatists in the North are not happy being part of Ireland and would rather have remained British, so there has been a civil war raging for years. What would Britain and NATO do? Well how about disregarding Irelands claim to the North and declaring it to be independent, then at the request (televised) of the North we agree to provide protection to the North and move our troops in and threaten to invade the South if there is further conflict and it doesn’t agree to stop plans to join the Soviet Union. Swop Ireland for Ukraine and the Soviet Union for the EU/NATO and you have the situation in Ukraine today. And in reality in Ireland and Scotland swap Soviet Union for the French and Spanish and you have the reason why we needed to control Ireland and Scotland in the past.
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Post by bracknellboy on Feb 23, 2022 20:14:21 GMT
No, but it is a many faceted and complex situation going back through 70+ years of history which I have not the time to write about here at present and if I had, and the ability, I would be a journalist. On the immediate situation in Ukraine I say the following:- Imagine the whole of Ireland gained independence from British rule as one country without partition back in the last century. It cuts all ties with us and applies to join the Soviet Union, our enemy who is surrounding us, and who wish to install military bases and missiles in Ireland pointing at us. But the protestant separatists in the North are not happy being part of Ireland and would rather have remained British, so there has been a civil war raging for years. What would Britain and NATO do? Well how about disregarding Irelands claim to the North and declaring it to be independent, then at the request (televised) of the North we agree to provide protection to the North and move our troops in and threaten to invade the South if there is further conflict and it doesn’t agree to stop plans to join the Soviet Union. Swop Ireland for Ukraine and the Soviet Union for the EU/NATO and you have the situation in Ukraine today. And in reality in Ireland and Scotland swap Soviet Union for the French and Spanish and you have the reason why we needed to control Ireland and Scotland in the past. Well of course that is Putin's line, but bears no resemblence to reality. Nato is not offering an invitation to Ukraine to join Nato, has no intention of doing so in the foreseeable future, and has not intent or wish to install military bases or missiles in Ukraine. What they have done is refuse to accept that a 3rd party - in this case Russia - should be able to dictate whether another country - Ukraine - should have control of its own destiny. And as much as it is of benefit to Putin to spout internally that Nato is a power which is an aggressor threat to Russia, I doubt there is anyone of seniority with real experience who earnestly believes that. It is however a terribly convenient line to tout if you have - an openly espoused - desire to forcibly subsume bordering countries into your 'sphere of influence and restore the territorial geography and geopolitical influence to those of a prior empire. In his own words.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Feb 23, 2022 20:15:18 GMT
Imagine the whole of Ireland gained independence from British rule as one country without partition back in the last century. It cuts all ties with us and applies to join the Soviet Union, our enemy who is surrounding us, and who wish to install military bases and missiles in Ireland pointing at us. But the protestant separatists in the North are not happy being part of Ireland and would rather have remained British, so there has been a civil war raging for years. What would Britain and NATO do? Well how about disregarding Irelands claim to the North and declaring it to be independent, then at the request (televised) of the North we agree to provide protection to the North and move our troops in and threaten to invade the South if there is further conflict and it doesn’t agree to stop plans to join the Soviet Union. Swop Ireland for Ukraine and the Soviet Union for the EU/NATO and you have the situation in Ukraine today. And in reality in Ireland and Scotland swap Soviet Union for the French and Spanish and you have the reason why we needed to control Ireland and Scotland in the past. Interesting post, and I'm half-Irish  . It is a good analogy as far as it goes. Where I think it falls down is that the difference is that NATO does not threaten Russia. I don't really think that Russia even feels threatened (the gangster leadership and siloviki, and there status, wealth, and opportunity to exploit anything and everything may be a different matter entirely). What, imho, it feels, is diminished. And it resents that. It's response is... petulant. Collectively we really missed a trick in not trying (or succeeding?) to get Russia to join NATO at the end of the Cold War. EDIT: I should add that I think Putin et al do feel threatened by having a successful, functional, democracy, holding up a mirror to Russia on their doortstep. I'm not sure Ukraine should be blamed for this.
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Post by bracknellboy on Feb 23, 2022 20:24:31 GMT
One thing which is only occasionally being mentioned but which we should be taking more note of and concern about. The reports are that Russia now has 75% of its deployable forces in the west, in/around Ukrainian borders. Apart from the pretty obvious intent that signals, the other thing it sends signals about is Sino-Russian relations/complicity and what that bodes for the future.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Feb 23, 2022 20:32:08 GMT
Imagine the whole of Ireland gained independence from British rule as one country without partition back in the last century. It cuts all ties with us and applies to join the Soviet Union, our enemy who is surrounding us, and who wish to install military bases and missiles in Ireland pointing at us. But the protestant separatists in the North are not happy being part of Ireland and would rather have remained British, so there has been a civil war raging for years. What would Britain and NATO do? Well how about disregarding Irelands claim to the North and declaring it to be independent, then at the request (televised) of the North we agree to provide protection to the North and move our troops in and threaten to invade the South if there is further conflict and it doesn’t agree to stop plans to join the Soviet Union. Swop Ireland for Ukraine and the Soviet Union for the EU/NATO and you have the situation in Ukraine today. And in reality in Ireland and Scotland swap Soviet Union for the French and Spanish and you have the reason why we needed to control Ireland and Scotland in the past. Interesting post, and I'm half-Irish . It is a good analogy as far as it goes. Where I think it falls down is that the difference is that NATO does not threaten Russia. I don't really think that Russia even feels threatened (the gangster leadership and siloviki, and there status, wealth, and opportunity to exploit anything and everything may be a different matter entirely). What, imho, it feels, is diminished. And it resents that. It's response is... petulant. Collectively we really missed a trick in not trying (or succeeding?) to get Russia to join NATO at the end of the Cold War. EDIT: I should add that I think Putin et al do feel threatened by having a successful, functional, democracy, holding up a mirror to Russia on their doortstep. I'm not sure Ukraine should be blamed for this. It has usually been Scotland making pacts with England's enemies (usually France). If France wanted to claim Scotland as French now I suspect it would not go down well with Scotland.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2022 21:51:30 GMT
No, but it is a many faceted and complex situation going back through 70+ years of history which I have not the time to write about here at present and if I had, and the ability, I would be a journalist. On the immediate situation in Ukraine I say the following:- Imagine the whole of Ireland gained independence from British rule as one country without partition back in the last century. It cuts all ties with us and applies to join the Soviet Union, our enemy who is surrounding us, and who wish to install military bases and missiles in Ireland pointing at us. But the protestant separatists in the North are not happy being part of Ireland and would rather have remained British, so there has been a civil war raging for years. What would Britain and NATO do? Well how about disregarding Irelands claim to the North and declaring it to be independent, then at the request (televised) of the North we agree to provide protection to the North and move our troops in and threaten to invade the South if there is further conflict and it doesn’t agree to stop plans to join the Soviet Union. Swop Ireland for Ukraine and the Soviet Union for the EU/NATO and you have the situation in Ukraine today. And in reality in Ireland and Scotland swap Soviet Union for the French and Spanish and you have the reason why we needed to control Ireland and Scotland in the past. But is also how Germany laid claim to the Sudatenland. A completely false claim made worse, in this case, that the CCCP had ceased to be and one part, Russia, has a list of false invasions as long as my arm. I think your Irish analogy is BS.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Feb 23, 2022 22:04:58 GMT
On the immediate situation in Ukraine I say the following:- Imagine the whole of Ireland gained independence from British rule as one country without partition back in the last century. It cuts all ties with us and applies to join the Soviet Union, our enemy who is surrounding us, and who wish to install military bases and missiles in Ireland pointing at us. But the protestant separatists in the North are not happy being part of Ireland and would rather have remained British, so there has been a civil war raging for years. What would Britain and NATO do? Well how about disregarding Irelands claim to the North and declaring it to be independent, then at the request (televised) of the North we agree to provide protection to the North and move our troops in and threaten to invade the South if there is further conflict and it doesn’t agree to stop plans to join the Soviet Union. Swop Ireland for Ukraine and the Soviet Union for the EU/NATO and you have the situation in Ukraine today. And in reality in Ireland and Scotland swap Soviet Union for the French and Spanish and you have the reason why we needed to control Ireland and Scotland in the past. Well of course that is Putin's line, but bears no resemblence to reality. Nato is not offering an invitation to Ukraine to join Nato, has no intention of doing so in the foreseeable future, and has not intent or wish to install military bases or missiles in Ukraine. What they have done is refuse to accept that a 3rd party - in this case Russia - should be able to dictate whether another country - Ukraine - should have control of its own destiny. And as much as it is of benefit to Putin to spout internally that Nato is a power which is an aggressor threat to Russia, I doubt there is anyone of seniority with real experience who earnestly believes that. It is however a terribly convenient line to tout if you have - an openly espoused - desire to forcibly subsume bordering countries into your 'sphere of influence and restore the territorial geography and geopolitical influence to those of a prior empire. In his own words. But this is simply the line that we get in our news. Nato has for a very long time been seen as a threat inside Russia. We're told that Ukraine will never join Nato and yet it is being armed and supported by NATO's biggest backers (notably US and UK). Ships, missiles, all sorts of hardware being sent there long before the latest crisis. (By the way, the US embassy in the middle of built up Kyiv is absolutely enormous - what are they doing there? We rented a flat once which overlooked it perhaps I'll dig some pics out at some point) Look at it like this. If Mexico suddenly became best buddies with Russia and Russia then started sending in special forces advisors, military equipment and training and worse started stationing troops and missiles there (as per a load of NATO countries in eastern europe) would America just sit there ?
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Feb 23, 2022 23:03:43 GMT
We're told that Ukraine will never join Nato Isn't that what Moscow are saying? "The West"* are saying Ukraine might like to choose for themselves. As for Mexico, can you find Cuba on a map? Or Venezuela? Or Nicaragua? * - (like it's some single homogeneous group in 100% agreement about everything...)
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sussexpeer
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If you don't make a plan, you'll end up where you're headed.
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Post by sussexpeer on Feb 24, 2022 7:09:07 GMT
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Feb 24, 2022 7:47:41 GMT
A grim day  . |
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Post by bracknellboy on Feb 24, 2022 8:01:26 GMT
A grim day  . yep. Grim for everyone. Lets not forget that Putin has a massive nuclear arsenal under his control, and I'd dare to suggest that he has perhaps started to show signs of having become slightly unhinged. Two schools of thought: he has been playing everything extremely shrewdly and this is his (for now) end game, or he has become somewhat disconnected and slightly deranged and we should be even more concerned. I wish I had faith that it wasn't the latter.
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travolta
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Post by travolta on Feb 24, 2022 8:28:45 GMT
24th,told you. All hell breaking out here too.
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Post by bracknellboy on Feb 24, 2022 8:29:45 GMT
24th,told you. All hell breaking out here too. did you get the time right though ?
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Post by bracknellboy on Feb 24, 2022 9:00:05 GMT
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. It is a good analogy as far as it goes. Where I think it falls down is that the difference is that NATO does not threaten Russia. I don't really think that Russia even feels threatened (the gangster leadership and siloviki, and there status, wealth, and opportunity to exploit anything and everything may be a different matter entirely). 
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