registerme
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Post by registerme on Jul 3, 2024 18:08:49 GMT
EDIT: This was in reply to michaelc 's post above. I accept that Johnson may have had an effect on the talks, though I'd suggest that the discovery of Russian war crimes was more important. Johnson was just articulating the reality on the ground at the time. Whether it was negative or not is open to interpretation. There isn't one single correct answer, and I don't pretend to supply one. Instead there are a range of answers that entail different costs and risks. Michael, you obviously feel that this war is terrible, and I agree with you. Where our stances diverge is on how terrible a Russian annexation of Ukraine (even just another part of it) would be, both in terms of immediate treatment of Ukrainian populations in conquered oblasts, and in terms of the longer term strategic situation in Europe. It seems you now agree with most of my post. I am aware you disagree with my view that Ukraine is being used to fight a proxy war against Russia that is not in its own interest and that the US does not give an damn about Ukraine or Ukrainians or what happens to what is left of Ukraine after Russia wins this conflict and the US moves onto its next geo political scheme in Taiwan*, but I did not mention that. * - Any more than they cared about Vietnam or Afghanistan after they decided to leave them to their fate. Sorry to disappoint you but the number of comments in your posts that I agree with amount to a tiny rounding error on the end of an imaginary Assetz Capital interest payment calculation.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Jul 6, 2024 10:24:07 GMT
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Jul 6, 2024 14:08:52 GMT
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Jul 6, 2024 14:15:43 GMT
Did we read the same article? Because the ISW piece covered, extensively, Putin's utter lack of interest in a negotiated peace.
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k6
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Post by k6 on Jul 6, 2024 14:28:28 GMT
Orban should be kick out of the EU . Period . A russian Trojan horse . No one needs to be involved in negotiation with putler. This might give him an idea he is actually something important . This dude is a criminal , self centered prick that does not care about its country nor its people . The russian land and their inhabitants are for one purpose , to serve for the "elite "
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jul 6, 2024 15:05:41 GMT
Orban is the elected leader of an EU country. Of course he should be listened to - and he would be, if he was actually doing anything other than grandstanding and acting as Putin's intermediary.
Read that article...
"Putin repeated his earlier ultimatum to end the war, demanding Kyiv cede more land, withdraw troops deeper inside its own territory and drop its Nato bid."
No, Vlad, you do not get to ask another country to give you their land. You do not get to tell another country what they can and can't do inside their own borders. You do not get to tell another country who they can and can't join... And you CERTAINLY can't call that "peace" because you'll stop your invasion if they give you what you want. That's not peace negotiation, that's blackmail.
It's the equivalent of breaking into your next door neighbour's house, and telling them you'll leave if they give you their back garden and telly, and stop talking to Mr Smith at number 14.
"“Many steps are needed to end the war but we took the first step to restore dialogue,” Orban said, admitting that “points of view remained far from each other in Kyiv and Moscow”.
...
“Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s visit to Moscow takes place exclusively in the framework of the bilateral relations between Hungary and Russia. The Hungarian prime minister is thus not representing the EU in any form,” Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign policy chief, wrote in a statement.
Ukraine condemned Orbán’s visit, saying it had been made “without approval or coordination” with Kyiv. The Ukrainian foreign ministry said in a statement that “the principle of ‘no agreements on Ukraine without Ukraine’ remains inviolable for our country”.
Hungary has been at odds with other western countries over Orbán’s continued cultivation of close ties to Russia and refusal to send arms to Ukraine. Budapest’s foreign minister called plans to help the country a “crazy mission” in May."
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on Jul 6, 2024 15:19:56 GMT
At least there is some communication between the EU and Russia. I suspect Orban has not done this totally on his own and has some backing from other EU countries possibly from Italy and Germany. Obviously it is in Ukraine's interest to end this conflict ASAP before their country is destroyed and split into various parts*. As I have said a number of times these people who have been pumped to the eyeballs with propaganda and think Ukraine should make no concessions and fight to the last Ukrainian would feel totally different if they were being shipped off to the front line. * - One reason Orban might also be talking to Putin is he thinks Hungary could absorb parts of the Transcarpathia region if Ukraine collapses into Anarchy after a total defeat to Russia and the US leaves them to their fate like Afghanistan. Poland might possibly also absorb some parts of Eastern Ukraine in this scenario.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jul 6, 2024 15:43:11 GMT
At least there is some communication between the EU and Russia. There's communication between Hungary and Russia. That's not the same thing. The Visegrad Four, maybe. Not the sensible grown-ups. Except that's precisely what Putin wants as a "peace settlement". Why wouldn't he talk to the man who got him the job, and allows him to keep it? He simply is Putin's useful idiot. Their links go back many years, at least to signing a deal with Putin in 2014 to build the PaksII nuclear plant in Hungary with no bidding process, borrowing the money to pay the Russian developers from the Russian government. Let's not forget, too, that Hungary was hugely reliant (85%+) on Russian gas until the sanctions he tried to veto.
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on Jul 6, 2024 15:55:24 GMT
Why wouldn't he talk to the man who got him the job, and allows him to keep it? He simply is Putin's useful idiot. Their links go back many years, at least to signing a deal with Putin in 2014 to build the PaksII nuclear plant in Hungary with no bidding process, borrowing the money to pay the Russian developers from the Russian government. Let's not forget, too, that Hungary was hugely reliant (85%+) on Russian gas until the sanctions he tried to veto. If I lived in Eastern Europe I would 100% want my government to have good relations with the economic and military superpower next door also known as Russia. Infact when Zelensky came to power he said he told the population he was going to try to have good relations with Russia - which was obviously a very costly lie.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jul 6, 2024 16:02:57 GMT
If I lived in Eastern Europe I would 100% want my government to have good relations with the economic and military superpower next door also known as Russia. Have you looked at a map? It's over 750km from the nearest point in Hungary to the nearest point in Russia. France is over 100km nearer to Hungary than Russia is. Four EU and EEA countries share a land border with Russia - Hungary is not one of them. Yeh, believing they were going to be reasonable has certainly been costly for Zelensky.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Jul 6, 2024 16:19:35 GMT
It's the equivalent of breaking into your next door neighbour's house, and telling them you'll leave if they give you their back garden and telly, and stop talking to Mr Smith at number 14. I would say its the equivalent of someone kidnapping your mother and father, torturing them every day until you pay a ransom. But you refuse to pay that ransom because the kidnappers need to be taught they can't do it and get away with it.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jul 6, 2024 16:26:02 GMT
It's the equivalent of breaking into your next door neighbour's house, and telling them you'll leave if they give you their back garden and telly, and stop talking to Mr Smith at number 14. I would say its the equivalent of someone kidnapping your mother and father, torturing them every day until you pay a ransom. But you refuse to pay that ransom because the kidnappers need to be taught they can't do it and get away with it. I can go with that as an analogy, yes. We're broadly in agreement. Unless, of course, you're suggesting the Ukrainian government rather than Putin are the kidnappers?
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Jul 6, 2024 16:32:15 GMT
I would say its the equivalent of someone kidnapping your mother and father, torturing them every day until you pay a ransom. But you refuse to pay that ransom because the kidnappers need to be taught they can't do it and get away with it. I can go with that as an analogy, yes. We're broadly in agreement. Unless, of course, you're suggesting the Ukrainian government rather than Putin are the kidnappers? No, Putin obviously. So the difference is I would pay a price immediately to stop the torture and you would let it continue possibly for a very long time and probably also have to pay a price at the end of it.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jul 6, 2024 16:37:20 GMT
I can go with that as an analogy, yes. We're broadly in agreement. Unless, of course, you're suggesting the Ukrainian government rather than Putin are the kidnappers? No, Putin obviously. So the difference is I would pay a price immediately to stop the torture and you would let it continue possibly for a very long time and probably also have to pay a price at the end of it. Well, yes, you could give your house and all your money to the kidnapper. Then you could look surprised when the kidnapper does the same to the others down the street.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Jul 6, 2024 16:45:14 GMT
No, Putin obviously. So the difference is I would pay a price immediately to stop the torture and you would let it continue possibly for a very long time and probably also have to pay a price at the end of it. Well, yes, you could give your house and all your money to the kidnapper. Then you could look surprised when the kidnapper does the same to the others down the street. I would assume that part of the price to be paid includes measures that ensures it cannot happen to houses down the street. Your method leave your family being tortured every day for years and years and with no end in sight.
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