registerme
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Post by registerme on Aug 13, 2024 19:55:21 GMT
Any sensible answers ? If its a cr@p idea I can take it. Regarding it breaking the rules of war gimme a break. It's not a  idea. Well, not entirely. It's just an implausible idea. To do a "thunder run" to Moscow over that kind of a distance you'd need... (pulling numbers from my arse here)... four NATO armoured corps? Call it 200k to 250k troops, a thousand tanks, three thousand IFVs / APCs, all the support and logistics, air supremacy etc. And that's assuming no concerted real Russian military effort to stop them. And then what? Putin and his cronies would have long since pulled out, you'd have a restive, resentful population, and the "West" does what, try to inculcate "democracy" in Russia? Again? After Iraq and Afghanistan? And, another important point. Putin would look like an utter clown if he deployed nukes of any variety against an incursion he has already publicly declared to be "terrorists". The great Tsar needs nukes to deal with terrorists? Umm, ok then. But 250k tooled up troops in a foreign army bearing down on Moscow, where he can plausibly declare them to be an existential threat to the Russian state? That's... different. Ukraine can't mount such an operation. The West has no interest in such an operation (and wouldn't be able to mount it without months of lead-up time). EDIT: To add one note, there is a massive difference between the Russian military, and FSB, and Rusguardia's responses to Prigozhin / Wagner's move on Moscow, where they effectively went "umm, ok, the bigs are playing, let's just not get involved until we know what's what" on the one hand and "THE AMERICANS ARE COMING" on the other.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Aug 13, 2024 20:01:19 GMT
Even if it was just 25,000 who would stop them?
How many did Prigozhin have I wonder?
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Aug 13, 2024 20:21:16 GMT
Even if it was just 25,000 who would stop them? How many did Prigozhin have I wonder? I don't know how many Prigozhin had, but he didn't have much in the way to stop him (remember, he was talked out of it). But, again, pulling numbers out of arse with abandon... To repeat, with UTTER ABANDON... It's about 550km from Kursk to Moscow. An Abrams can do about 300 miles (let's call it 480km) on one tank of fuel. That's on road, without combat. An Abrams is manned by four soldiers. Let's say that for each day your Abrams starts with a full tank. It needs at least a full tank close behind it. Each fuel tanker can fill four Abrams. Each fuel tanker requires an eight of a fuel tanker for its own requirements. Each fuel tanker has a crew of two. Each Abrams, depending on the type, carries 40-50 rounds of main gun ammo. Ammo is heavy. The trucks carrying it need fuel, and drivers. All those crew need feeding, and watering, and rest. And casualty evacuation should things go wrong. And command and control. And reconnaissance elements. And air-defense. And all the new whizbang drone shenanigans. etc And so far we've dealt with the support one tank requires. Add in 999 more, and three thousand Strykers / Bradleys / whatever and you can see where this is going. That logistics tail requires support, and protection, all the way (remember Jessica Lynch?). The amount of effort involved is mind-boggling.
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Post by bracknellboy on Aug 13, 2024 20:27:49 GMT
Any sensible answers ? If its a cr@p idea I can take it. Regarding it breaking the rules of war gimme a break. It was meant entirely as a sensible answer: they don't have the numbers; they don't have the equipment; they don't have the logistical support; they don't have the weapons or ammunition to raze half of Moscow to the ground, or even a tiny fraction of that; and as a side note if they had and did, Zelensky would be making himself and much of their top brass indicatable war criminals. Plus Kyiv would be turned into a molten mass before you can say "pass me the red button" (this last bit is suppostion, but not an unreasonable).
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Post by bracknellboy on Aug 13, 2024 20:41:25 GMT
Even if it was just 25,000 who would stop them? How many did Prigozhin have I wonder? Almost certainly the reason Prigozhin wasn't originally stopped was because of Putin's renowned caution/procrastination. And genuine uncertainty about what to do. This was his long term ally. He had declared he had no ill will towards Putin or to the Russian people only to the top brass. He was also in ownership of a reasonable chunk of valuable Russian military assets and manpower. Neither of which Putin would have wanted to see lost unless it was really necessary. And he was to some degree being feted by the Russians in the street. None of the above considerations will be staying the hand of Russia with respect to Ukranian forces.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Aug 13, 2024 20:42:10 GMT
Logistics is what armies do I had assumed. Interesting that you haven't said who would stop them...
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Aug 13, 2024 21:11:05 GMT
Logistics is what armies do I had assumed. Interesting that you haven't said who would stop them... Pray forgive me for not having immediate details to hand of the forces available to Putin between Kursk and Moscow. However, were I Putin I'd rush Rusguardia and FSB forces, and nearby (untrained and badly led) conscript forces into defensive positions at least fifty miles back from the current contact line. I'd entrench two thirds of them and and keep a third as a mobile reserve. If Ukraine were to get to them I'd expect them to be mauled, badly. Rusguardia and FSB are not capable of standing up to Ukrainian mechanised brigades. Meanwhile I'd bring cohesive military units, including armour, artillery, and air into play. I'd make sure not to have them arrive in column formation along easily observable roads. Quite where they're meant to come from I don't know, but Russia currently has about 600k men in Ukraine and (from memory) another 400k-500k elsewhere. I'd put a competent army general in charge and make the command structure very, very clear to everybody. Then I'd pause and figure out what the hell I was going to do. Of course this is... almost the opposite of what Putin has done. But I'm not too worried about Ukraine is up to. They're savvy enough not to over-extend. I don't know what they are up to, but I am interested to find out.
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ilmoro
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Post by ilmoro on Aug 13, 2024 21:22:40 GMT
Logistics is what armies do I had assumed. Interesting that you haven't said who would stop them... Pray forgive me for not having immediate details to hand of the forces available to Putin between Kursk and Moscow. However, were I Putin I'd rush Rusguardia and FSB forces, and nearby (untrained and badly led) conscript forces into defensive positions at least fifty miles back from the current contact line. I'd entrench two thirds of them and and keep a third as a mobile reserve. If Ukraine were to get to them I'd expect them to be mauled, badly. Rusguardia and FSB are not capable of standing up to Ukrainian mechanised brigades. Meanwhile I'd bring cohesive military units, including armour, artillery, and air into play. I'd make sure not to have them arrive in column formation along easily observable roads. Quite where they're meant to come from I don't know, but Russia currently has about 600k men in Ukraine and (from memory) another 400k-500k elsewhere. I'd put a competent army general in charge and make the command structure very, very clear to everybody. Then I'd pause and figure out what the hell I was going to do. Of course this is... almost the opposite of what Putin has done. But I'm not too worried about Ukraine is up to. They're savvy enough not to over-extend. I don't know what they are up to, but I am interested to find out. Mostly air defence it would appear ... assuming of course OpSec isnt hiding lots which seems likely. www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1xPxgT8LtUjuspSOGHJc2VzA5O5jWMTE&ll=50.222780393693625%2C36.452040023437355&z=8
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Aug 13, 2024 21:25:45 GMT
The threat of F-16s as a force in being. Whodathunkit.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Aug 13, 2024 23:40:08 GMT
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Aug 14, 2024 4:50:38 GMT
😅 Of course I have no intelligence about what they will do. But… the goal is simple, to stop this bloody war.
The blue and yellow have managed to hold on and proved me wrong.
No idea what the bear will say next if there’s more embarrassment.
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Post by bracknellboy on Aug 14, 2024 8:56:56 GMT
Logistics is what armies do I had assumed. Interesting that you haven't said who would stop them...Leaving aside ground forces for the moment, my thoughts on this were and are that a force trying to get 490km into Russian territory is going to be very vulnerable to air attack. I am not aware of Ukr having anything like the level of mobile GBAD capability that they would need. In a theatre where they wouldn't have air superiority. And even if the West allowed them to use them at such depth over Russia - which I'd bet a pretty large wedge they won't have - a handful of F16s isn't going to give them that. Yes the Russian air force has woefully underperformed compared to expectations. But I suspect that would become far less of a factor the deeper into Russian territory you go. As the Ukr air defence threat diminishes on one side of the equation, and the political / military pressure increases on the other.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Aug 14, 2024 9:02:23 GMT
My suspicion is that the Ukrainians went in for a specific objective - wasn't there an airfield full of drones etc destroyed on the first night? - then decided that it was altogether far too easy, so are now having a bit of fun making the Russians run around a lot and look like the ill-prepared idiots they are.
Then, when the Russians do finally turn up in force, they'll simply melt back to the border, and launch an offensive against where the Russians were in Ukraine before being redeployed to chase shadows around Kursk.
They don't need or want to actually take Russian territory, just get their own back. Also, it's not a great long-term look to be currying international favour on the basis of invasion then do the exact same.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Aug 14, 2024 9:04:01 GMT
Every article I read posits a different reason for the incursion. This one suggests Russian supply lines. It also mentions a gas pumping station for moving gas across Ukraine. If Ukr wanted to stop the flow of gas and dollars it could blow it up on their side any time they wish
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Post by crabbyoldgit on Aug 14, 2024 10:44:56 GMT
I read this was a gas metering station, blow up the metering equipment only and free gas for the eu!!!😜.
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idea. Well, not entirely. It's just an implausible idea. To do a "thunder run" to Moscow over that kind of a distance you'd need... (pulling numbers from my arse here)... four NATO armoured corps? Call it 200k to 250k troops, a thousand tanks, three thousand IFVs / APCs, all the support and logistics, air supremacy etc. And that's assuming no concerted real Russian military effort to stop them.
