War in Ukraine (Previously - Will there be War?)

There could be a couple of reasons, but one of which I think is likely the other unlikely.

Firstly the one that is unlikely. If StormShadow had US components and/or "contents" that was under ITAR then their usage could be subject to some form of US restrictions/approval. That might even be (but less likely) when used by UK or Fr themselves. But a little more likely where they had been transferred to a 3rd party. 

FWIW I  think this is unlikely the reason. Why? Because SS is an MBDA weapon system developed for and in use with UK and France, and while the UK might be comfortable with some restrictions I think it is very unlikely the French would have allowed themselves to be hamstrung by the US in that way. 

The far more likely reason would be that the western parties / NATO member countries have reached a general consensus to be get mutual agreement / consent, or at least consent from the US, for use of weapons for strikes into Russia. Because of NATO mutual defence commitments.

E.g. if Poland was to chuck missiles/shells at a target inside Russia - regardless of whether it was using US, British, French or entirely indigenous weapons - it would seem to be a bit of a stretch for it then to invoke NATO Article 5 when Russia retaliated. So this is just an extrapolation from that more extreme example. 

The shorter answer is: "Yes"

Nobody knows the answer to that at the moment. But the signs that Russia is at the bottom of the barrel are now evident. Scrapheap Challenge is nearly over.

Putting yourself at the table with the Ukrainian planners, and I don't think the shape of the course of the Seym River has escaped their notice as far as defensible boundaries are concerned.

www.encyclopediaofukraine.com/picturedisplay.asp?linkpath=pic/S/E/Seim%20River_Map.jpg&page=pages/S/E/SeimRiver.htm&id=13590&pid=9696&tyt=Seim%20River&key=Seim+River%2C+%D0%A1%D0%B5%D0%B9%D0%BC%3B

The bit to the west of the incursion that I earlier suggested Ukraine would attack seems likely to fall them without a fight. 

Edit: This person agrees

Are you saying the three bridges in the area have now been hit by Ukr ? That would be good. I had thought there was still one left.

They reportedly pulled troops from here for the Kursk operation ... they are evacuating so I dont think they have anything spare to counter with ... everything mech is in front to block the advance, there is nothing really north or south ... the Russians are repeatedly outflanking Ukr defences, following ridgelines x.com/AMK_Mapping_/status/1823923911756775667

Either it's a secret or particularly hard for chatgpt to answer.