War in Ukraine (Previously - Will there be War?)

Well, it won't be.

They've already said first targets would be German and Polish US bases.

At the moment it seems to be questionable whether that is in fact what has happened. 

It would seem to be a potentially rather (unnecessarily) risky strategy ? I would have expected an ICBM launch to be detected by the US. Whether that is at some point in the boost phase or not till mid-course I don't know. But quite possibly both - as in able to be detected during both. How quickly the trajectory and intended impact/target point can be assessed, and with what certainty, I have no idea. But until that is ascertained, I would have expected it to raise the alarm bells all the way to 11. With consequential responses.

I don't think that is a game that even Putin would want to play. Unless of course they know that it would be very quickly confirmed as targeting Ukr. 

And as well as playing silly b*ggers with nuclear alert trip wires, it would seem like a questionable waste of one or more ICBMs. Albeit they certainly "have enough". 

Time will no doubt tell. 

At the moment, we haven't seen any projectiles landed in areas of NATO members yet. But I assume if they are willing to test an "useless" missile landed in any NATO members, the entire world would react very differently. 

So a few points:

BB made what I consider to be a reasonable post. I wonder if Russia did indeed inform the US?

To Mr Saver, given the possible act has been enough to stir the EU into saying its an escalation, it is indeed my hope that this is the end of the current round of tit-for-tat. Lets hope it lasts 'till Trump gets in.


Finally, Adrian is living in cloud cuckoo land if he thinks Germany would be hit before us. Of I forgot, he doesn't read any Russian press so has no idea how much anti-UK fervour is being whipped up in the country.

So tell me Adrian, if they hit a few targets in the UK, kill a few people in a military base and destroy some buildings, what would the UK do? Or what should it do ?

 I have read Russian Analysis (translated into English) on this and it seems the US attack was targeted at a very well defended military depot while the storm shadow targeted a fairly grand military residential building used for training and strategy in the Kursk Region (I suspect it was built by the soviets from some top military brass to stay at and have meetings, looks more like a palace than a barracks). The Russian military released a statement pretty soon after the US attack, they have still not said anything about the UK Storm shadow attack. I would speculate that it is possibly some of the storm shadow missiles got through and hit the building*, the Russian military are deciding on a response.

* - I hope to god no high ranking Russian Military personal were inside at the time.

True... but I wouldn't have started by invading next-door, then blaming anybody and everybody else.

So everything past there is into "Putin's definitely not making the same choices as me" territory.