ilmoro
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Post by ilmoro on Nov 22, 2024 18:17:23 GMT
Understated ... according to Ukr it went full Spinal Tap ... turned up to Mach 11 whisper it gently but my sources* tell me they are close to making operational the first Transphasic torpedo. It'll make those 500m tsunami mega death torpedoes look about as scary as a half charged Phased Polaron cannon. *some guy on YouTube We are the Russians, resistance is futile, your country will adapt to service ours, you will be assimilated.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Nov 22, 2024 18:23:28 GMT
Yes but no but there is quite a gap between no response and dropping a 100megaton on NYC ! To your point about "that is the point" [of deterrence?] I'm not sure. I mean nukes obviously deter against a nuclear attack but do they deter against small scale skirmishes or small bomb killing a couple of soldiers? Russia is finding out that nukes don't protect it very well against that kind of "modest" (relatively speaking) aggression. I'm sorry ... what 'modest' aggression is Russian finding out that nukes don't protect it against? That's like Medusa complaining having snakes for hair doesn't protect you against being turned to stone when a mirror reflects back on you.  Kursk invasion was that not clear ?
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Nov 22, 2024 18:29:08 GMT
... To your point about "that is the point" [of deterrence?] I'm not sure. I mean nukes obviously deter against a nuclear attack but do they deter against small scale skirmishes or small bomb killing a couple of soldiers? Russia is finding out that nukes don't protect it very well against that kind of "modest" (relatively speaking) aggression. The short answer to that is: mostly....and historically almost entirely Russia and the US/NATO countries have avoided direct confrontation with each other since the second world war. Since the Soviet Union first acquired nuclear weapons in 1949, the risk / threat of escalation to a nuclear conflict has been the single dominant factor in managing their relationship. That's 75 years. I don't think it is going too far to say that it is almost inconceivable that there would not have been direct conflict up to now if it wasn't for that particular elephant in the room. Sure there has been war by proxies. But avoiding direct conflict, even to avoid entirely inadvertent, has been an overriding objective in Western and NATO thinking - and for most of that time Russian/Soviet Union - since '49. The fact that both India and China are nuclear powers has for sure provided incentive for both parties to deescalate border conflicts that otherwise could have grown into something much worse. Similar considerations almost certainly now apply to playing down/de-escalating.off-ramping Pakistan/Indian "skirmishes". That at least is a genuine reply. What worries me is that as far as I know during those 75 years of cold war, neither the USSR or the West attacked each other's sovereign territory. Yes proxy wars in proxy countries but no invasion of Russia, the US or the UK for example. We're in unchartered territory (so to speak).
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Nov 22, 2024 18:30:03 GMT
The short answer to that is: mostly....and historically almost entirely Russia and the US/NATO countries have avoided direct confrontation with each other since the second world war. Since the Soviet Union first acquired nuclear weapons in 1949, the risk / threat of escalation to a nuclear conflict has been the single dominant factor in managing their relationship. That's 75 years. I don't think it is going too far to say that it is almost inconceivable that there would not have been direct conflict up to now if it wasn't for that particular elephant in the room. Sure there has been war by proxies. But avoiding direct conflict, even to avoid entirely inadvertent, has been an overriding objective in Western and NATO thinking - and for most of that time Russian/Soviet Union - since '49. The fact that both India and China are nuclear powers has for sure provided incentive for both parties to deescalate border conflicts that otherwise could have grown into something much worse. Similar considerations almost certainly now apply to playing down/de-escalating.off-ramping Pakistan/Indian "skirmishes". That at least is a genuine reply. What worries me is that as far as I know during those 75 years of cold war, neither the USSR or the West attacked each other's sovereign territory. Yes proxy wars in proxy countries but no invasion of Russia, the US or the UK for example. We're in unchartered territory (so to speak). When did either Russia or the US last directly invade and attempt to colonise an immediate neighbouring sovereign state?
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on Nov 22, 2024 18:30:39 GMT
Well ok it is a NATO partner along with Australia, New Zealand and South Korea. What I want to know is whether Starmer and Lammy are going to continue to lead the charge against the Russians when Trump comes into office or are they going to take a massive U-Turn and look like idiots. I hope they take a U-Turn, and they already look like idiots as far as I am concerned. The UK* is a third rate military power at best in 2024 and has no business getting into a war with anyone - even the Houthis let alone the Russians with their 500m Tsunami Death Drones and Mach 10 Missiles. * - even the UKs nuclear weapons are basically borrowed from the US (and possibly are under US control), unlike France that has its own nuclear weapons. And if we need permission from the US to fire our own SS missiles, what are the chances of any else in our aging arsenal being used without US approval ? Zero. Even the storms shadow missiles which Starmer seems to think are going to turn the tide in Ukraine the UK borrowed from the French are pretty outdated - over 30 years old. The reality is the UK has almost zero manufacturing base and very few people studying the subjects needed to develop advanced military technology. The US has also fallen behind, with Iran having more advanced missile technology than the US - if you said that a few years ago people would think you were joking. I have been doing a bit of research in the Russian press concerning the general atmosphere concerning these strikes into Russia using UK/US targeted missiles and I would say it is quite likely that the Russians will respond (with conventional weapons) if they continue. From what I have heard they might announce the target in advance so it can be evacuated - I guess because they view their hypersonic missiles as unstoppable it does not matter if they announce the target in advance*. * - Obviously I hope the strikes into Russia stop and that this escalation does not happen.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Nov 22, 2024 18:33:07 GMT
I have been doing a bit of research in the Russian press concerning the general atmosphere the regime's propaganda concerning these strikes
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Nov 22, 2024 18:40:00 GMT
How do people compare the current situation with the Cuban missile crisis of 1962?
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Nov 22, 2024 18:50:24 GMT
I have been doing a bit of research in the Russian press concerning the general atmosphere the regime's propaganda concerning these strikes Adrian, you've already told me that you think I support Putin's invasion when you know I have a house full of Ukranians. You've also said the _first step_ in a serious escalation would be for NYC to be nuked. Finally you repeatedly have your head well and truly in the sand not wanting to believe any of even the mainstream media's headlines about the possibility of Russia retaliation against a western power (probably the UK). That was why I said "run along" - you repeat the same comments over and over without any new thoughts on the developments. I just don't understand what you're adding to the debate.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Nov 22, 2024 18:52:56 GMT
How do people compare the current situation with the Cuban missile crisis of 1962? My gut feeling is we're not quite there yet but getting very close. If Zelensky continues to fire SS/Atacms into Russia then we're probably at par. Just praying there are no big strikes into Ukraine from Russia either to provoke that. If no more missile strikes deep into Ukraine for the next few weeks and no more SS/Atacms then maybe we've got past the brink at least until Trump takes over....
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Nov 22, 2024 18:58:42 GMT
How do people compare the current situation with the Cuban missile crisis of 1962? Positives:- A more capable and advanced West / NATO; a much less capable / advanced Russia (in comparison with their relative strengths in the 60s); as yet no actual "trigger" akin to the US basing nuclear missiles in Turkey, or the Soviet Union attempting to do so in Cuba. Negatives:- A less unified NATO; less public belief in "the mission", and much less public belief in institutions / democracy etc; unreliable US leadership; much less experienced / cogent / wise / thoughtful leadership in both the West and Russia; wild cards like Iran and North Korea; US pivot to Asia; weakened international institutions eg the UN / World Bank / IMF; Europe is still a mess from a unified defense perspective.
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Post by captainconfident on Nov 22, 2024 19:07:13 GMT
I was wondering if the Trump Peace Plan (Ukraine) will be like the Trump Peace Plan (Israel Palestine). The Trump Peace Plan was called by its proponents "the deal of the century," phrasing used by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a joint press conference with Donald Trump announcing the plan.[205] Critics of the proposal were quick to offer variants of the phrase. The Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas reacted immediately with a riposte that it was the "slap of the century".[206] The secretary general of the Palestine Liberation Organization Saeb Erekat tweeted that it would be known as the "fraud of the century".[207] The Economist called it the "steal of the century".[38] In the aftermath of Israel walking back its initial pledge of "immediate annexation", a Haaretz commentator wrote of the "joke of the century".[16]
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_peace_plan#Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict |
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on Nov 22, 2024 19:09:29 GMT
I have been doing a bit of research in the Russian press concerning the general atmosphere the regime's propaganda concerning these strikes
Well it is the opinion of the press in Russia which is probably under the control of the Russian government to a certain extent (like in the UK). But I would say it is pretty relevant if you want to predict how Russia will react. One pretty amusing thing is that the Russians seem to have widely adopted the slang "The Chihuahua" to refer to the UK - apparently this was started by Putin.
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ilmoro
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'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Nov 22, 2024 19:45:48 GMT
I'm sorry ... what 'modest' aggression is Russian finding out that nukes don't protect it against? That's like Medusa complaining having snakes for hair doesn't protect you against being turned to stone when a mirror reflects back on you. Kursk invasion was that not clear ? Ah right, you invade & annexe over 10% of our country, after 18 months we pop over the border for a picnic in the park ... #minor aggression.
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ilmoro
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Post by ilmoro on Nov 22, 2024 19:50:40 GMT
Well it is the opinion of the press in Russia which is probably under the control of the Russian government to a certain extent (like in the UK). But I would say it is pretty relevant if you want to predict how Russia will react. One pretty amusing thing is that the Russians seem to have widely adopted the slang "The Chihuahua" to refer to the UK - apparently this was started by Putin.
So absolutely no issue then, no danger of retaliation ... because the bear would looking pretty  stupid if it was scared of a chihuahua.
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Post by bracknellboy on Nov 22, 2024 19:57:45 GMT
How do people compare the current situation with the Cuban missile crisis of 1962? My gut feeling is we're not quite there yet but getting very close. If Zelensky continues to fire SS/Atacms into Russia then we're probably at par. Just praying there are no big strikes into Ukraine from Russia either to provoke that. If no more missile strikes deep into Ukraine for the next few weeks and no more SS/Atacms then maybe we've got past the brink at least until Trump takes over.... Unfortunately I think that is very unrealistic quite unlikely. That is the sort of narrative that can play/has played out with Israel/Iran for example. However the Ukr/Rus situation is very different: active war, participants occupying the other's territories etc. etc. I may be wrong but I don't see that is how its going to progress. Ukraine is going to defend itself. Use of everything at its disposal to strike Russian military assets is not a response to deep "strikes with calamitous novel weapons" from Rus, its a response to having been under constant attack for >1000 days and having a chunk of their population either expelled from their homes or living under occupation.
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stupid if it was scared of a chihuahua.