michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Feb 12, 2022 19:13:55 GMT
I see that President Zelenskyy has decided that it now merits moving from 'stay calm' to 'brown stuff is about to hit the fan'. Assuming this happens, as seeming more and more inevitable, what a complete tragedy. Ukrainian president suggests Russian invasion could be imminent
I have to say that if this does go down, I hope that there are a bunch of high level military on the Russian side that are considering a coup in the event that they get bogged down. Won't happen if it is done and dusted quickly, but if they get bogged down then I would say Putin was at risk. Its not like the average Russian consider Ukranians to be their enemy.A rare amount of agreement between us but I agree with that in spades. Your coup comment is also not a million miles off. Indeed it may not even come from the top brass. The average sqaddie also has family and buddies in Ukraine. Would the US invade Canada? England invade Ireland (in recent times)? Australia invade New Zealand? I don't expect you to agree with the following though: Surely Putin is not going to risk it? If he pulls back he's immediately got some face saving from the fact he has consistently denied it will happen. He may be happy with some kind of security agreement that prevents continued Nato enlargement (whilst of course Nato technically continuing to allow any new country to join). Some kind of fudge. He will also have achieved intense wariness from both Nato and also the Ukranians who probably regret voting in their current and dangerous buffoon Zelensky.
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Post by bracknellboy on Feb 12, 2022 22:15:28 GMT
I see that President Zelenskyy has decided that it now merits moving from 'stay calm' to 'brown stuff is about to hit the fan'. Assuming this happens, as seeming more and more inevitable, what a complete tragedy. Ukrainian president suggests Russian invasion could be imminent
I have to say that if this does go down, I hope that there are a bunch of high level military on the Russian side that are considering a coup in the event that they get bogged down. Won't happen if it is done and dusted quickly, but if they get bogged down then I would say Putin was at risk. Its not like the average Russian consider Ukranians to be their enemy.A rare amount of agreement between us but I agree with that in spades. Your coup comment is also not a million miles off. Indeed it may not even come from the top brass. The average sqaddie also has family and buddies in Ukraine. Would the US invade Canada? England invade Ireland (in recent times)? Australia invade New Zealand? I don't expect you to agree with the following though: Surely Putin is not going to risk it? If he pulls back he's immediately got some face saving from the fact he has consistently denied it will happen. He may be happy with some kind of security agreement that prevents continued Nato enlargement (whilst of course Nato technically continuing to allow any new country to join). Some kind of fudge. He will also have achieved intense wariness from both Nato and also the Ukranians who probably regret voting in their current and dangerous buffoon Zelensky. Unfortunately that is a view that starts from a point of assuming both rationality and that he is receiving advice that matches reality on the ground. People in his position have a habit of ending up distanced from both: surrounded by people who's primary function is to tell him what he wants to hear and to burnish his ego. So sadly I am far from convinced he is going to back down now. I would say at this point that is a low probability, esp. as to date he hasn't 'won' anything he could easily point to as a reason to back down. I also think it is very likely that western intelligence are getting input from someone or some people at very senior levels in Russia: I don't think their messaging is simply done on the basis of what is happening on the ground. Oh, and we will disagree that Zelensky is in anyway a meaningful cause of Putin's actions. If the roots lie anywhere, it goes back to the Ukrainian people making known their collective desire to turn westward rather than eastward by ousting Yanukovych in 2014. Seeing his effective puppet chucked out and realising that an independent democratic Ukraine would decide that its future lay with closer ties to Europe and free western institutions is the boil that Putin wants to lance.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Feb 12, 2022 23:15:50 GMT
If the roots lie anywhere, it goes back to the Ukrainian people making known their collective desire to turn westward rather than eastward by ousting Yanukovych in 2014. Seeing his effective puppet chucked out and realising that an independent democratic Ukraine would decide that its future lay with closer ties to Europe and free western institutions is the boil that Putin wants to lance. Mmm. When "EuroMaidan" happened, the Russians hated it because Ukraine was moving towards EU membership. Now, Finland would be the model they'd accept... The EU-Ukraine Association Agreement that was behind the whole 2013-4 shenanigans was signed in 2014, and came into force in 2017.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2022 8:06:57 GMT
There are further boils to lance in the turmoil close to Russia's borders. Transnistria, is the southern most part of Moldova and is another gangster "state" funded by Moscow. This is a place even worse than Ukraine in terms of poverty and corruption in the 2010s. Much joked about in Tony Hawkes "Playing Moldovans at Tennis" www.moldovansmovie.com/ (all profits to children's charity in Moldova.
The issue is wherever Russia goes, it brings corruption and gangsterism because that is something it understands well
"Seize the means of propaganda, set up a secret police, remove habius corpus, kill opposition political people, pretend to run a democracy and watch the money roll in" I'll not bother to spend Sunday giving you the evidence for each of these but use Google
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2022 9:32:39 GMT
Now, Finland would be the model they'd accept...
you may note a certain similarity with other things
"The Soviets made several demands, including that Finland cede substantial border territories in exchange for land elsewhere, claiming security reasons"
WW2 playbook again
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Feb 13, 2022 9:51:57 GMT
Now, Finland would be the model they'd accept...
you may note a certain similarity with other things
"The Soviets made several demands, including that Finland cede substantial border territories in exchange for land elsewhere, claiming security reasons"
WW2 playbook again
East Karelia? 100 years after dividing Karelia, and 400 after the Treaty of Stolbova, it might be time to move on... There's dozens of similar areas around the world, which were re-allocated after the ends of various wars. Trieste and the area around it, and just don't even start the Hungarians over Transylvania... Mostly, they're simply nationalistic prestige matters though. It's only where you have a repressive regime in one area that it becomes a real issue. Moldova got mentioned earlier - between Romania and Russia. Or Kosovo. Or Republika Srpska in Bosnia...
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2022 10:07:20 GMT
100 years...... (more like 80 and hence in living memory)
When I was last across the border in Finland this issue was still deeply part of the culture
When i was last in Lativa the war, during some of the coldest winters at about the same time with the Russians, is still alive in the population's memory
We have already documented the key recent invasions by Russia and when you look back you begin to realise that being a border state with Russia is situation of constant change brought about by militaristic actions.
This does not mean that such behaviour is acceptable into the 21st centuary. We can keep drawing a line and say, "so far and no further" and guess what they will push the line again and again. It is in the nature of a gangster government to 1) be looking for more loot 2) drive up nationalism 3) lie to their public 4) to be paranoid which results in a perfect vicious circle
steal, lie, paranoia etc
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Feb 13, 2022 10:21:09 GMT
100 years...... (more like 80 and hence in living memory) Treaty of Tartu, 1920, where Karelia was split into East (Russia) and West (Finland)?
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2022 10:28:46 GMT
Latvia has its own language and came to the printed word pretty late for a European country. As part of their final (we hope) independance they built a national library and every citizen could give a book. The ground floor, along with a cafe houses a large section on Propaganda, because they understand how powerful a weapon it is. I mention this because if you read the wiki article you will see how "kidnapping of border guards" is seen as a trigger for this sort of invasion. They also define "The Convention for the Definition of Aggression" for the first time.
This clearly shows Russia is the agressor in Crimea and the rest of eastern Ukraine
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Feb 13, 2022 11:39:16 GMT
I think it was George Kennan who said "Russia can either be a democracy, or an empire, but not both" (or words to that effect). And unfortunately Russia has always seen it's security in empire...
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Feb 13, 2022 16:13:00 GMT
I think it was George Kennan who said "Russia can either be a democracy, or an empire, but not both" (or words to that effect). And unfortunately Russia has always seen it's security in empire... Isn't that pretty much the definition of any and every empire, ever?
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Post by moonraker on Feb 13, 2022 22:16:06 GMT
"On impulse," a Polish friend decided to fly to London today for a couple of days, then return on Wednesday. Yesterday she was at her local airport: "Rzeszow where all the NATO and UK soldiers are flying to and live next to the airport to protect the borders - due to the war hanging above our heads. I went for a Covid test yesterday to the airport (it's 15 min away) and it was quite impressive to see all these monster war planes."
I'd already expressed unease about her travelling and using public transport. I didn't like to point out that if Russia invades Ukraine on Wednesday, as some predict, her journey home that day could be in jeopardy, if only because airports could have more essential traffic to handle than civilian flights.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Feb 14, 2022 9:16:51 GMT
Rzezszow is 70km from the Ukrainian border, so I'm not surprised it's a bit... lively... round there.
When we were in Romania a decade ago, we got quite close to the border a few times, and we were in no doubt about it at the time... There was definitely an official presence, rivalled only from what we've seen by near the Tunisian/Algerian border. Military patrols on back roads, passport checks, questions as to why we were there...
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2022 14:41:07 GMT
Good old Bellingcat offer us the mililtary radar tracking tool and numberplate tracker
this should allow you to watch individual Russian military vehicles, those fitted with radar, moving about. Enjoy
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travolta
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Post by travolta on Feb 14, 2022 22:00:20 GMT
I reckon Putin is quite happy to keep those tanks pointing @ the Ukraine rather than the Kremlin.
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