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Post by earthbound on Jun 13, 2016 7:41:31 GMT
Which ever side of the debate you are on, for a truly jaw dropping insight into something (though I'm not entirely sure what  ) take a look at this poll with 124,000 votes at the time of writing www.pollstation.uk/eu-referendum/poll/
I agree, my jaw did drop, personally i hope it proves correct. 
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Post by chielamangus on Jun 13, 2016 7:44:03 GMT
If I was 20 years younger I would vote leave because I think the EU is a complete basket case. However, I think it's inevitable that there will be some short / medium term instability in the financial markets if we leave, and that's the last thing I want as I try to consolidate my financial position prior to early retirement. I'd love to put 2 fingers up to Europe, but I've got a postal vote and it's already gone back with the remain box ticked. Damn! You've offset my vote to Leave posted ages ago. I'm older than you methinks and I'm still up for the change, short term uncertainty, but longer term hope. And I think the future of the country is rather more important than the value of my portfolio possibly dropping in value (though if it were to happen I would bet on it being corrected within a few months or years)
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Post by batchoy on Jun 13, 2016 9:32:35 GMT
An interesting straw poll amongst a small group of international kite flyers over the weekend by far the majority of the flyers from EU countries wanted their own referendum which could be interpreted as a vote to leave since you would only want a referendum if you wanted to change something. However it should be noted that all those participating were from EU countries that are net contributors to the EU, plus they were the ones who started the conversation the Brits tried to assiduously avoid it.
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locutus
Member of DD Central
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Post by locutus on Jun 13, 2016 9:54:16 GMT
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skippyonspeed
Some people think I'm a little bit crazy, but I know my mind's not hazy
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Post by skippyonspeed on Jun 13, 2016 10:36:08 GMT
Which ever side of the debate you are on, for a truly jaw dropping insight into something (though I'm not entirely sure what ) take a look at this poll with 124,000 votes at the time of writing www.pollstation.uk/eu-referendum/poll/
I agree, my jaw did drop, personally i hope it proves correct. I wasn't expecting that!!! Currently live poll showing Remain 16% Leave 81%.........however, if you look at what odds the bookies are offering it's totally different Remain 2/5 Leave 2/1....now, where's my salt, it needs pinching. I might even have a flutter on a leave bet at those odds.
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Post by yorkshireman on Jun 13, 2016 11:01:58 GMT
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Post by yorkshireman on Jun 13, 2016 11:04:21 GMT
Brilliant, worth more than just 1 "like"
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Post by yorkshireman on Jun 13, 2016 11:21:41 GMT
Where is the cartoon, have Maigret or Inspector Montalbano objected on behalf of the EU? Or has it been removed by the PC Police?
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Post by dualinvestor on Jun 13, 2016 11:23:59 GMT
Which ever side of the debate you are on, for a truly jaw dropping insight into something (though I'm not entirely sure what ) take a look at this poll with 124,000 votes at the time of writing www.pollstation.uk/eu-referendum/poll/
Even if the eventual national outcome is 50.01% vs 49.99% (either way round, doesn't matter for what I'm about to say) a lot of what I've been reading these last few days is implying we are going to see some fascinating results on a regional basis, and that poll I've linked to may well not be that far off the mark in some regional areas, counter balanced by the opposite in other regional areas. This is in contrast to the AV vote of 2011 where the % against was fairly even throughout the UK. A possible inference from this is that a close result could be harder for the losing side to accept.
One would hope that the opinion pollsters have not got it as wrong as that poll of a self selecting sample suggests. Especially after the debacle of polls vs. last year's general election result. However from my admittedly small circle of acquaintances it does seem to reflect that feeling. Certainly the pound and stock markets are nervous about an out result and on IG markets at this very moment the odds against a leave vote are down to 2/1 from 4/1 only a couple of weeks ago. Whilst I agree this is perhaps not SS specific it would have been interesting to know what SS investors opinion was say vs Z or RS investors.
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locutus
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Post by locutus on Jun 13, 2016 11:34:44 GMT
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ilmoro
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'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Jun 13, 2016 11:37:55 GMT
Particularly if UEFA kick us out. Maybe thats all part of Putin's plan, he's heard all the Remain claims that Brexit is in his interests and has sent his lackies to stir things up.  Just waiting for someone to blame the late equaliser/Polish winner on Brexit (clearly the Slovaks didnt get the memo) 
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ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Jun 13, 2016 11:41:17 GMT
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Post by yorkshireman on Jun 13, 2016 12:42:46 GMT
On the betting sites there does seem to be a marked divergence between the size of the bets being placed on various out-turns. At William Hill, for instance, 71% of the bets that have been placed are for leave, but 73% of the money placed is for remain. Does this tell us that people who do not have the resources to place large bets think we are going to vote to leave, but their bets are more than offset by a wealthy few who think we are going to stay? Do the people placing the bigger bets have better access to information, or better ability to process it, than those who place smaller bets? Is the size of the bets itself a barometer of the confidence that people have in their projections of the outcome? The apparent asymmetry in betting size can, under some plausible assumptions, be seen as a source of bias in using the betting odds as an indicator of Brexit probabilities. With regard to opinion polls, the clearest divergence is between telephone polls which clearly favour Remain and online polls that favour Brexit. The chart attached shows the trend until Friday COB; overall moving in the Leave camps favour but still with a margin for remain and with further divergence between online and telephone polls. The hypothesis for this divergence has been put forward in a paper Polls Apart . The chart above also tries to control for "house effects", "don't know bias" and the sampling gap between online and telephone polls. It still shows a lead for Remain of around 4-5%, which translates to a Brexit probability of around 25%. I'd note that for comparison the Brexit probability on Betfair hit 36% this morning. “At William Hill, for instance, 71% of the bets that have been placed are for leave, but 73% of the money placed is for remain. Does this tell us that people who do not have the resources to place large bets think we are going to vote to leave, but their bets are more than offset by a wealthy few who think we are going to stay?” Could that be a true reflection of the way voters are thinking? i.e. A majority want to leave whilst the elites, vested interests and those cocooned from the realities of everyday life wish to remain. “Do the people placing the bigger bets have better access to information, or better ability to process it, than those who place smaller bets?” Of course they need to have better access to information in order for them to look after their own interests whilst the rest of the population experience mushroom treatment. www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=mushroom%20treatment“Is the size of the bets itself a barometer of the confidence that people have in their projections of the outcome?” They probably feel that they are in a win win situation, they will be banking on the EU telling us to have another referendum in order to achieve the “correct” result if we vote to leave and / or Call Me Dave reneging on his word: www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-idUSKCN0SJ0E720151025However, in the longer term, that bet may go badly wrong: www.spectator.co.uk/2016/05/dont-rule-out-referendum-two-the-tory-leave-genies-out-of-the-bottle/
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Liz
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Post by Liz on Jun 13, 2016 21:53:47 GMT
Latest polls showing a shift towards Leave. Possible late swing to status quo, possible that pollsters get it badly wrong(in either direction)
Exciting times or not!
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Post by mrclondon on Jun 14, 2016 0:13:40 GMT
Latest polls showing a shift towards Leave. Possible late swing to status quo, possible that pollsters get it badly wrong(in either direction) Exciting times or not! Indeed so. I'm looking forward to a fascinating night of tv overnight 23rd/24th. Watching the politicians attempt to explain away the results as they come in should be hugely entertaining.
An Excel file containing the expected declaration time (between 00:30 and 07:00) for each council area is available on www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/journalist/eu-referendum-count
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) take a look at this poll with 124,000 votes at the time of writing www.pollstation.uk/eu-referendum/poll/
