bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Jun 14, 2016 9:29:52 GMT
On the betting sites there does seem to be a marked divergence between the size of the bets being placed on various out-turns. At William Hill, for instance, 71% of the bets that have been placed are for leave, but 73% of the money placed is for remain. Does this tell us that people who do not have the resources to place large bets think we are going to vote to leave, but their bets are more than offset by a wealthy few who think we are going to stay? Do the people placing the bigger bets have better access to information, or better ability to process it, than those who place smaller bets? Is the size of the bets itself a barometer of the confidence that people have in their projections of the outcome? The apparent asymmetry in betting size can, under some plausible assumptions, be seen as a source of bias in using the betting odds as an indicator of Brexit probabilities. Could it be that people consider how much they might win and size their bets accordingly? I know that when I bet on decimal odds of 5.0 I am happy to bet £25 (to win £100), but if I am betting on 1.25 I wouldn't bother betting £25 (to win ~£6), if I was going to bother transferring the money and all the rest I would bet at least £100 or not bother (most likely not bother). And these are typical of the odds available over much of the last month. ... the Brexit probability on Betfair hit 36% this morning. Traded over 44% a few minutes ago!
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skippyonspeed
Some people think I'm a little bit crazy, but I know my mind's not hazy
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Post by skippyonspeed on Jun 14, 2016 10:02:49 GMT
Ever since this came up I can't get this song out my skull....  link |
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Post by yorkshireman on Jun 14, 2016 10:15:20 GMT
Latest polls showing a shift towards Leave. Possible late swing to status quo, possible that pollsters get it badly wrong(in either direction) Exciting times or not! Indeed so. I'm looking forward to a fascinating night of tv overnight 23rd/24th. Watching the politicians attempt to explain away the results as they come in should be hugely entertaining.
An Excel file containing the expected declaration time (between 00:30 and 07:00) for each council area is available on www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/journalist/eu-referendum-count
Silly question perhaps. How is the result decided, is it simply the option with the highest total number of votes that wins rather than how many regions vote to leave and how many regions vote to remain? Afterthought, probably not the latter as there are 12 regions which could produce a draw! Put another way, once the total leave and total remain votes for each region are known, are they then combined to arrive at the winner?
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Post by dualinvestor on Jun 14, 2016 10:19:36 GMT
Indeed so. I'm looking forward to a fascinating night of tv overnight 23rd/24th. Watching the politicians attempt to explain away the results as they come in should be hugely entertaining.
An Excel file containing the expected declaration time (between 00:30 and 07:00) for each council area is available on www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/journalist/eu-referendum-count
Silly question perhaps. How is the result decided, is it simply the option with the highest total number of votes that wins rather than how many regions vote to leave and how many regions vote to remain? Put another way, once the total leave and total remain votes for each region are known, are they then combined to arrive at the winner? As I understand it a simple majority of the votes. I.e. a vote in the Scilly Isles counts the same as a vote in the Orkney and everywhere in between.
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skippyonspeed
Some people think I'm a little bit crazy, but I know my mind's not hazy
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Post by skippyonspeed on Jun 14, 2016 10:20:43 GMT
Indeed so. I'm looking forward to a fascinating night of tv overnight 23rd/24th. Watching the politicians attempt to explain away the results as they come in should be hugely entertaining.
An Excel file containing the expected declaration time (between 00:30 and 07:00) for each council area is available on www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/journalist/eu-referendum-count
Silly question perhaps. How is the result decided, is it simply the option with the highest total number of votes that wins rather than how many regions vote to leave and how many regions vote to remain? Afterthought, probably not as there are 12 regions which could produce a draw! Put another way, once the total leave and total remain votes for each region are known, are they then combined to arrive at the winner? We're not voting for bums on seats, so one would have thought just aye or nay will be the result
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Post by yorkshireman on Jun 14, 2016 10:34:58 GMT
As I understand it a simple majority of the votes. I.e. a vote in the Scilly Isles counts the same as a vote in the Orkney and everywhere in between. We're not voting for bums on seats, so one would have thought just aye or nay will be the result Thanks guys That’s the way I see it but you never know with Dodgy Dave!
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Post by dualinvestor on Jun 14, 2016 10:44:51 GMT
... the Brexit probability on Betfair hit 36% this morning. Traded over 44% a few minutes ago! [/quote] Back up (or down depending on your point of view) to 36% on IG markets
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skippyonspeed
Some people think I'm a little bit crazy, but I know my mind's not hazy
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Post by skippyonspeed on Jun 14, 2016 11:41:43 GMT
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am
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Post by am on Jun 14, 2016 13:16:10 GMT
Plus it's entirely likely that free movement of people will remain after the end of the negotiations. I was under the impression, from various newspaper headlines in the Sun and the Mail, etc., that the major motivation of the exit campaign was to end free movement of people.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jun 14, 2016 13:32:17 GMT
Plus it's entirely likely that free movement of people will remain after the end of the negotiations. I was under the impression, from various newspaper headlines in the Sun and the Mail, etc., that the major motivation of the exit campaign was to end free movement of people. Yes, it is. Although, frankly, I'd double check the Sun and the Mail telling me what the date is. Reality is, however, likely to differ from that stated motivation. Let's say that the UK is not an EEA member post-exit, and ceases to be bound in any way to the four Treaty of Rome freedoms - free movement of people, capital, goods and services. (The other three are generally held to be a good thing, of course...) What will that actually mean, in terms of how movement will be controlled? The only way that people from another country can enter the UK is with a visa, unless the UK allows visa-free travel for people from their country. Different classes of travel have different requirements - people from many countries can come to the UK visa-free for tourist purposes, some for study, not many to live - with or without working. If the UK introduces a requirement for visas for European passport-holders, is it not entirely likely that the Schengen area would also introduce a requirement for visas for UK nationals? Schengen has to be viewed as a single country, for passport purposes. It just isn't possible for the UK to require visas (of whatever class) from only some Schengen nationality passport holders - so we couldn't say "Germans don't need a visa, but Lithuanians do". It certainly wouldn't work the other way round - a Schengen visa is a Schengen visa. If the UK decides to allow all pre-resident EU nationals to remain here, visa-free, then that would presumably be done by granting them Indefinite Leave to Remain, individually, because it just isn't possible to say "This Polish passport holder doesn't need a visa, this one does". Would Schengen - say, Spain or France - deal similarly with UK nationals already resident in Schengen countries? How about where people aren't permanently resident, but split their time between the UK and a Schengen country? Would they have to be physically present on some cut-off day? It's safe to assume that tourist visas - and, probably student visas - would not be required. Yet the majority of illegal migration to the UK is believed to be from people who've overstayed tourist or study visas.
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Post by dualinvestor on Jun 14, 2016 13:34:45 GMT
Plus it's entirely likely that free movement of people will remain after the end of the negotiations. I was under the impression, from various newspaper headlines in the Sun and the Mail, etc., that the major motivation of the exit campaign was to end free movement of people. What a politician aims to do (especially one quoted in the Sun or Mail) and what they actually do are usually two entirely different things
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merlin
Minor shareholder in Assetz and many other companies.
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Post by merlin on Jun 14, 2016 14:28:15 GMT
Interesting to see so much "gut feeling" that Brexit will not affect property prices significantly. This is particularly so on a day following a couple of strong predictions from polls suggesting it will be Brexit on Thursday week and the Stock Market dropping below FTSE 6000 led by house builders. Plus the £ attempting to plum even lower depths. I wonder how big the panic will be if the outcome really is Brexit?
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Post by dualinvestor on Jun 14, 2016 14:30:40 GMT
Interesting to see so much "gut feeling" that Brexit will not affect property prices significantly. This is particularly so on a day following a couple of strong predictions from polls suggesting it will be Brexit on Thursday week and the Stock Market dropping below FTSE 6000 led by house builders. Plus the £ attempting to plum even lower depths. I wonder how big the panic will be if the outcome really is Brexit? Buy the rumour sell the fact or vice versa
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jun 14, 2016 14:51:00 GMT
following a couple of strong predictions from polls Don't get too excited over a couple of headline polls. The FT have been running a poll-of-polls for months now. Every single data point documented, methodology explained. Two of the last three days have seen Leave ahead by a point or two - for the first time since the polling began. ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/
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Post by batchoy on Jun 14, 2016 15:13:53 GMT
As I understand it a simple majority of the votes. I.e. a vote in the Scilly Isles counts the same as a vote in the Orkney and everywhere in between. We're not voting for bums on seats, so one would have thought just aye or nay will be the result Thanks guys That’s the way I see it but you never know with Dodgy Dave! Reading the legislation there will be local counting officers who are responsible for the tallying of local counts, they then pass the local counts to the Chief Counting Officer to tally the regional counts to give a national count, so one person one vote at a national level. However given the personal attacks that are going on between members of the different the faction involved and between members of the same faction due to their political allegiances rather than the disputing of relevant facts, one would think we were voting for bums on seats not making a choice between leaving or remaining part of an extra-national organisation.
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