Brexit: In or Out

Not a peep, he must either be crying his eyes out, preparing his resignation speech, or calculating if he stands a chance against BB.

Really ? I would think the odds on that happening have increased significantly. The Tories - in the form of their Westminster representatives - are now seriously fractured. They of course always have been over Europe, but this has bought it to a head and in a total gloves off way. Their MPS have gone from tolerating their differences for the greater party good, to not being able to be in the same room as each other.  Having given the core activist base the thing they most craved - an in/out vote - that base will take away the message that they were right all along. As with the world over, that activist base sits much further towards the extreme side of the party than the mainstream voters. They will now feel both vindicated, and empowered. The grand scheme of making the conservatives appear 'nicer', more socially liberal, and keen to represent a broader constituency may well come to a shuddering halt. What odds on the local parties chucking out a good chunk of those in the centre/centre left of the party in favour of candidates more in tune with their thinking ?

And who are they going to end up with as leader ? Going to have to come from either the Leave side, or the 'I kept my head down' brigade. Will a cerebral and crystal glass accent Michael Gove appeal to the neccesssary electorate masses, once he is off a single issue platform ? Boris the Bouffant Bafoon ?  He has a style that can appeal across a broad spectrum, is the one person that might be able to avoid them from moving too far to the right, but I suspect that his vacuity and self interest is likely to be exposed. Besides, as a self declared believer in immigration he will come under difficulty squaring the circle opost leave success; Tory MPs wont trust him to handle the upcoming negotiations with the EU nor indeed the demands of either party leader or PM, plus he has never had any real support base amongst the MPs anyway, oh and a v. large proportion of the remain MPs now consider him as having utterly stabbed them and DC in the back; oh, and as the ex Mayor of London who was supposed to champion the interests of both Londoners and the London economy, he would be seen as a particular turn-off for that constituency. 

So maybe, just maybe, it's going to have to be that Theresa May person, as the candidate that can take them sufficiently to the right to appease the activists while maybe just about not taking it so far it loses the core central electorate and make them unelectable. The remainer's in the party will probably manage to just about look past their disquiet that she keep her head down.

So I think a shift to the right is inevitable. And now that for the moment the elephant in the room immigration issue will be seen to have been slayed, those perhaps more natural labour voters who have switched to either UKIP or for a right wing Tory  are likely to switch back to the party that they otherwise think best represents them. 

So unless the PLP ousts him, JCs chances of being next PM have gone up dramatically. 

Interesting, my expectation is that Boris will be PM within weeks, Tories will close ranks and win the next election and that Jezza will not be leading the Labours for very much longer.

Of course we should not forget that the bookies had EUSSR Remain odds-on favourites.

Andrea Leadsom is the Energy Minister and was the third Brexiteer in the debates with BoJo & Gisela Stuart, She is a former city banker and was very effective in the campaign so unsurprising she is on the list.

The only man that could make Michael Foot look smart.