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Post by Harland Kearney on Jun 24, 2016 7:29:30 GMT
I'm honestly not sure about my gut reaction, I have a strong urge to withdraw money from a number of my P2P holdings, at least from AC 30DAA and QAA, and Dave just resigned as PM which makes me feel even more unstable about the situation.
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Post by ablrateandy on Jun 24, 2016 7:38:50 GMT
I think that you will see the banks almost totally stop property lending for the next few months whilst they take stock. You are going to see a lot of bridging loans extending because buyers will dry up for a while. With those two factors combined, you would want to be pretty sure before going into more loans (or demand a higher rate and lower LTV).
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beechside
Member of DD Central
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Post by beechside on Jun 24, 2016 8:07:01 GMT
So Mark Carney has said there's £250b additional liquidity but there's no movement in interest rates. I'm inclined to agree with ablrateandy that banks will be protective with their capital holdings. Then again, stopping 5x mortgages can only be a good thing. As for commercial property, it will depend on the decisions made by the CEOs of the exporting industries. If they are agile and can use weaker sterling to improve their exports then commercial demand should not be hit excessively. Housebuilders have taken a tanking on share price and we'll have to see what happens to partly completed projects that are no longer viable. Imports will be more expensive (including petrol and a lot of the foods that we consume). Naturally, this will impact both raw goods for industry and the consumer price index. Exporters won't find the hit on Sterling to be all good news, particularly those with cash flow problems and we end-consumers will certainly find cost of living higher. I think we will find it harder to sell our holdings in the secondary markets, which will change our habits. I have never bought at 75% LTV and such transactions will be very dodgy in a buyers' market. I guess I'll have to hold more loans through to maturity, thus raising the default rate and reducing the overall return from P2P. However, I'm optimistic of a positive result overall. For those with expectations of 6-8% from P2P, you shouldn't be too far off the mark. Those expecting 12% will be disappointed. |
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Post by dingdong on Jun 24, 2016 8:27:32 GMT
I'm withdrawing my money as fast as I can till the dust settles. I'm quite sure there will be lender panic before too long when people realise that they can't get their money out of the big name P2P schemes (Zopa, RS) etc. without a constant supply of new lenders, and the property market will head south impacting all the smaller property based P2P schemes.
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locutus
Member of DD Central
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Post by locutus on Jun 24, 2016 8:33:24 GMT
I'm withdrawing my money as fast as I can till the dust settles. I'm quite sure there will be lender panic before too long when people realise that they can't get their money out of the big name P2P schemes (Zopa, RS) etc. without a constant supply of new lenders, and the property market will head south impacting all the smaller property based P2P schemes. First post and inciting panic. Yeah, no. I call troll.
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Post by yorkshireman on Jun 24, 2016 9:18:59 GMT
The elites will never let the UK leave the EU since they control the banking and political system. Tomorrow it will be business as usual and the UK will remain in the EU. The elites may just be having to rethink things a tad.
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littleoldlady
Member of DD Central
Running down all platforms due to age
Posts: 3,045
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Post by littleoldlady on Jun 24, 2016 9:19:49 GMT
As much as I'd like to see the UK leave the EU (purely for selfish stock market crash hopes) I estimate there's a 1% chance of a Brexit. The elites like their money and a Brexit would cause too much financial instability, at least short term. The elites will never let the UK leave the EU since they control the banking and political system. Tomorrow it will be business as usual and the UK will remain in the EU. Still think that?
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Post by yorkshireman on Jun 24, 2016 9:26:36 GMT
Pity about that, I thought Project Save Dave that was being talked about on ITV, was quite catchy unlike Project Fear.
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hendragon
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Post by hendragon on Jun 24, 2016 9:40:18 GMT
I think that you will see the banks almost totally stop property lending for the next few months whilst they take stock. You are going to see a lot of bridging loans extending because buyers will dry up for a while. With those two factors combined, you would want to be pretty sure before going into more loans (or demand a higher rate and lower LTV). The growth in p2p has had a lot to do with the the banks inability to lend post 2008 and very low interest rates. There is a certain appeal to p2p rates rising, due to some form of credit crunch. Bring back the days of the 9% (yes honestly) RS 5 year market, and pawnbroking style loans going to 18%!.
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Post by captainconfident on Jun 24, 2016 10:49:32 GMT
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Post by nightmare on Jun 24, 2016 11:11:57 GMT
I'm not panic selling any loans but until the situation calms down I won't be doing any re-investing. Unless the £ recovers sharpish more expensive imports will mean inflation which in turn means higher interest rates so why fund a 6.5% 5 year loan on RS now (for example) when you could be getting 8% or more in a few months time. On a second point my portfolio on FC is heavily skewed towards property and with housing likely to be harder hit than most sectors it's a big worry. Thankfully (as far as I'm concerned) I have very little invested with any of smaller P2P players but I would be extremely worried whether one or two of the smaller fish will be able to survive the turmoil.
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Steerpike
Member of DD Central
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Post by Steerpike on Jun 24, 2016 11:12:39 GMT
Ha ha. My top tip is stop buying stuff you don't need, um, such as this book.
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dermot
Member of DD Central
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Post by dermot on Jun 24, 2016 11:48:17 GMT
I'm remaining in P2P - but will be looking very carefully at property loans with a higher LTV.
What makes you feel comfortable - a max of 60%?, 65%?
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sl75
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Post by sl75 on Jun 24, 2016 12:19:05 GMT
I find it rather interesting that certain P2P sites are now branching out into political commentary...
I received two emails about the impact of brexit on P2P.
The one from Assetz Capital seems very much focused on the negative aspects, but the one from Saving Stream presents it as a positive opportunity.
Presumably this is due to the difference between having a central London office (and being largely surrounded by Remain supporters) and one based out in the regions (surrounded mainly by Leave supporters)?
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Post by Financial Thing on Jun 24, 2016 12:29:58 GMT
As much as I'd like to see the UK leave the EU (purely for selfish stock market crash hopes) I estimate there's a 1% chance of a Brexit. The elites like their money and a Brexit would cause too much financial instability, at least short term. The elites will never let the UK leave the EU since they control the banking and political system. Tomorrow it will be business as usual and the UK will remain in the EU. Still think that? I was surprised but remember it's just a referendum. I think you'll see some strange things hapepen in the coming months. At least half my prediction came true (stock market), great buying opportunity in the coming weeks.
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