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Post by captainconfident on Jun 30, 2016 10:40:14 GMT
I've had the following thought.
What happens now depends entirely on whether the next Tory leader comes from the leave side or the remain side.
The referendum result is "we should leave the EU".
It was not "we will control our borders" in the same way is was not "we will spend 350 million on the nhs". There is no instruction about immigration. These were issues developed by Ukip and the leave campaign.
All that need occur is that Britain leave the EU. We could still pay our subscription, retain free movement of people and stay in single market. The only manifest difference is we left the EU as instructed and have no say in making the trade rules.
If a leave side politician becomes Tory leader, they will also try to fulfill the promises of the leave campaign. If they come from the remain side, the only obligation they have is that outlined above, nothing more.
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Liz
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Post by Liz on Jun 30, 2016 11:26:05 GMT
I've had the following thought. What happens now depends entirely on whether the next Tory leader comes from the leave side or the remain side. The referendum result is "we should leave the EU". It was not "we will control our borders" in the same way is was not "we will spend 350 million on the nhs". There is no instruction about immigration. These were issues developed by Ukip and the leave campaign. All that need occur is that Britain leave the EU. We could still pay our subscription, retain free movement of people and stay in single market. The only manifest difference is we left the EU as instructed and have no say in making the trade rules. If a leave side politician becomes Tory leader, they will also try to fulfill the promises of the leave campaign. If they come from the remain side, the only obligation they have is that outlined above, nothing more. If the country doesn't get control of the movement of labour and "their" £350m back, then we may have riots! If a remain supporter becomes of new PM, then whatever deal they get will be criticised by UKIP, and more frenzy will be whipped up. I just can't see how the UK is going to get a deal that keeps everybody happy; I mean no free movement of labour, paying nothing in, no EU legislation, free movement of services(banks need this) and access to the free market(tariff free), it wont happen. I just have no idea what type of deal we will get.
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DiQ
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Post by DiQ on Jun 30, 2016 11:26:59 GMT
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Investor
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Post by Investor on Jun 30, 2016 11:40:02 GMT
Breaking News --- Boris has pulled out
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jjc
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Post by jjc on Jun 30, 2016 11:40:53 GMT
May (a remainer) has got round this by saying she will set up a team made up of Leavers to handle the EU negotiation.
Gove, Fox & Leadsom were Leavers, unlike Crabb.
My money’s on Leadsom winning. I think Boris will back her & Fox will come round too, if they’re smart they will also get Crabb on board to capture the blue collar vote (wise move providing cover also in a GE scenario). Which would leave Gove either out in the cold or heading May’s Brexit team (unless he can make up with Boris).
Interesting times.
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skippyonspeed
Some people think I'm a little bit crazy, but I know my mind's not hazy
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Post by skippyonspeed on Jun 30, 2016 11:45:56 GMT
Breaking News --- Boris has pulled out I thought you were joking and I couldn't see it at first!! link
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jjc
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Post by jjc on Jun 30, 2016 11:48:10 GMT
Not a betting feller & would like to take a punt on this. Anyone able to point me to best odds for Leadsom winning (ideally with other combinations eg where the other candidates will end up)?
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Investor
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Post by Investor on Jun 30, 2016 11:48:45 GMT
I don't do jokes about Johnsons
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Post by captainconfident on Jun 30, 2016 11:52:10 GMT
I've had the following thought. What happens now depends entirely on whether the next Tory leader comes from the leave side or the remain side. The referendum result is "we should leave the EU". It was not "we will control our borders" in the same way is was not "we will spend 350 million on the nhs". There is no instruction about immigration. These were issues developed by Ukip and the leave campaign. All that need occur is that Britain leave the EU. We could still pay our subscription, retain free movement of people and stay in single market. The only manifest difference is we left the EU as instructed and have no say in making the trade rules. If a leave side politician becomes Tory leader, they will also try to fulfill the promises of the leave campaign. If they come from the remain side, the only obligation they have is that outlined above, nothing more. If the country doesn't get control of the movement of labour and "their" £350m back, then we may have riots! If a remain supporter becomes of new PM, then whatever deal they get will be criticised by UKIP, and more frenzy will be whipped up. I just can't see how the UK is going to get a deal that keeps everybody happy; I mean no free movement of labour, paying nothing in, no EU legislation, free movement of services(banks need this) and access to the free market(tariff free), it wont happen. I just have no idea what type of deal we will get. You see what mean though , the referendum question was not "should we take back control of our borders/ country". A Remain side PM would surely wait for all the passion to die down and then simply sign up to the EEA with all that that entails. It does satisfy the referendum question as answered.
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Liz
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Post by Liz on Jun 30, 2016 11:52:40 GMT
Breaking News --- Boris has pulled out I thought you were joking and I couldn't see it at first!! linkMe too! This is like a WT... moment.
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Liz
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Post by Liz on Jun 30, 2016 12:00:27 GMT
If the country doesn't get control of the movement of labour and "their" £350m back, then we may have riots! If a remain supporter becomes of new PM, then whatever deal they get will be criticised by UKIP, and more frenzy will be whipped up. I just can't see how the UK is going to get a deal that keeps everybody happy; I mean no free movement of labour, paying nothing in, no EU legislation, free movement of services(banks need this) and access to the free market(tariff free), it wont happen. I just have no idea what type of deal we will get. You see what mean though , the referendum question was not "should we take back control of our borders/ country". A Remain side PM would surely wait for all the passion to die down and then simply sign up to the EEA with all that that entails. It does satisfy the referendum question as answered. I see exactly what you mean, EEA is not EU. The EU may even give us an EEA+ deal; Maybe a brake on immigration, say if it is above 100,000 for two years running, then we can limit the it to say 70,000 for the next two year. Also maybe a small reduction in our contribution, rather than than lose 15% of their budget(I would be happy for our net contribution to be froze for 7 years)
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skippyonspeed
Some people think I'm a little bit crazy, but I know my mind's not hazy
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Post by skippyonspeed on Jun 30, 2016 12:01:50 GMT
I thought you were joking and I couldn't see it at first!! linkMe too! This is like a WT... moment. He certainly looks a lot happier than he has done since THE result. He probably had the same thought as you Liz!!!
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Post by yorkshireman on Jun 30, 2016 12:05:33 GMT
Medium to long term, Crabb is the man the Tories need as leader to get away from the prevailing image amongst many people of being the party of privilege, a husky hugging Old Etonian is seen as risible by a large section of the electorate.
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Post by captainconfident on Jun 30, 2016 12:26:26 GMT
I wouldn't even bother speculating on who will actually win this. Like her or not, Theresa May is way out in front. I would also like Crabb, but TM is not a public school toff either, and is the candidate who played her hand best during the referendum.
I would say that the Home Secretary is usually a role filled with repeated embarrassments and cock-ups, and she has in these terms been the best in a long time.
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Post by yorkshireman on Jun 30, 2016 13:59:49 GMT
Medium to long term, Crabb is the man the Tories need as leader to get away from the prevailing image amongst many people of being the party of privilege, a husky hugging Old Etonian is seen as risible by a large section of the electorate. Further to the above comment. Regardless of what individuals may think of Thatcher or Major, there is no getting away from the fact that in the 6 elections since 1979 that produced Conservative governments or a Tory led coalition, the biggest majorities were those in 1979, 1983, 1987 and 1992 when the party leader was not from a privileged background. If the party is serious about winning over more of the electorate it has to realise that whilst metropolitan smart as*es like Blair may have been successful that was purely down to the old adage that you could pin a red rosette to a donkey www.bruceonpolitics.com/2015/12/03/oldham-west-anion-prediction/However, things are changing and there are opportunities in the old industrial areas for politicians who have an understanding of the lives of ordinary people, something which the likes of Cameron, Osborne, Johnson and Letwin will never have therefore the Tories will have no chance of taking votes from Labour and will be outflanked by UKIP if they choose a member of the metropolitan elites as leader. Additionally, like it or not, the party has to convince the many disenchanted Conservatives like myself that it is worthwhile continuing to vote for it and that it is not run by out of touch elite buffoons. These should be key considerations in the choice of leader besides dealing with Brexit.
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