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Post by wyndstryke on Aug 29, 2017 17:48:44 GMT
Yes, and that's on target for my mix of accounts. But some on here are actually losing money - that's what I can't understand.
I'm assuming because they trusted the 1% diversification (which isn't nearly enough IMO). Puts you at the mercy of luck. I wouldn't really be happy with less than 500 chunks, and I'd feel a lot more comfortable if it was 1000+.
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Post by blanik on Sept 1, 2017 21:36:31 GMT
Last update - as the goalposts have now moved.
I Started Z+ 17 moths ago - I lost all of my August income to defaults, plus lost £7 capital. xirr for 2017 is now 3.2%
Mrs B - Started Z+ 11 months ago, Core 2 month ago ( Split about 60/40 ) - same as last month - only lost 12% of her income to just 1 default. xirr for 2017 now 5.9%. So happy with her return - less so with mine!
Z+ was worth a punt, but I am currently re-inverting in Classic until December, then switching reinvestment to Core.
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amphoria
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Post by amphoria on Sept 2, 2017 17:15:18 GMT
An update to the graph that I posted on July 31st showing that Zopa's expected return now aligns with the XIRR after the reduction to the Z+ expected returns in August.  My expected returns are now 4.7% for Z Classic and 5.3% for Z+. |
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panda
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Post by panda on Sept 3, 2017 6:52:06 GMT
But the new expected was meant to apply to future loans not old loans, which were meant to only show a small loss compared to the old expected rate.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Sept 3, 2017 8:05:17 GMT
That was not my interpretation, nor, i suspect, many others'.
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panda
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Post by panda on Sept 3, 2017 9:41:31 GMT
There is a separate paragraph for existing investments which says:
'What this means for existing investments
For existing loans, we are expecting slightly higher losses.....'
Which I interpreted as lower returns but close to the originally stated expected.
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amphoria
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Post by amphoria on Sept 4, 2017 10:35:10 GMT
That's not the wording used by Zopa on my dashboard under Z+. At the end of July it read "At 10.6% Projected return of 6.4%". At the end of August this had changed to "At 10.6% Projected return of 5.3%". This can only be interpreted as the projection based on the loans at the end of each month. Thus, in my case, the projected return had reduced by 1.1% with the same mix of loans as I stopped re-investing repayments at the end of July. Obviously, this is my projected return and your experience my differ.
I have just remembered that the email quoted 5.6% as the expected return going forward on Z+ as I noted at the time that this was more than I was getting on historic loans on Z+.
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Post by BrianC on Sept 4, 2017 12:42:56 GMT
Defaults continuing to rise. Another loss in August. Zopa+ is one huge failure! Withdrawing all repayments.
Feb 17 - 29.79
Mar 17 - 9.66
Apr 17 - 9.65
May 17 - 78.21
Jun 17 - 67.10
Jul 17 - 63.66
Aug 17- 138.29
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aju
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Post by aju on Sept 4, 2017 15:06:42 GMT
Defaults continuing to rise. Another loss in August. Zopa+ is one huge failure! Withdrawing all repayments. Feb 17 - 29.79 Mar 17 - 9.66 Apr 17 - 9.65 May 17 - 78.21 Jun 17 - 67.10 Jul 17 - 63.66 Aug 17- 138.29 I think I've been very lucky as still only 3 defaults, 1 each in May,July,Aug. All my plus loans are £10 as I only lent £1060 into that. My interest so far is £101. Assuming defaults ( £28.78) are lost and just using simple figures that means my current interest rate is 5.24% since the start of my plus lend in May 2016. Whilst that is not the headline its still acceptable. Next few months will give a better indicator though. My interest is slightly better as these figures are from the current csv and early adopter (0.5%) does not show up in there. I still have to pay tax though. (my rate shown takes account of the whole 15 months time not just 12 months rate) I'm very intrigued as to why you seem to have such a high default level though. How many defaults is that for each month.
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Post by BrianC on Sept 5, 2017 14:41:00 GMT
Defaults continuing to rise. Another loss in August. Zopa+ is one huge failure! Withdrawing all repayments. Feb 17 - 29.79 Mar 17 - 9.66 Apr 17 - 9.65 May 17 - 78.21 Jun 17 - 67.10 Jul 17 - 63.66 Aug 17- 138.29 I think I've been very lucky as still only 3 defaults, 1 each in May,July,Aug. All my plus loans are £10 as I only lent £1060 into that. My interest so far is £101. Assuming defaults ( £28.78) are lost and just using simple figures that means my current interest rate is 5.24% since the start of my plus lend in May 2016. Whilst that is not the headline its still acceptable. Next few months will give a better indicator though. My interest is slightly better as these figures are from the current csv and early adopter (0.5%) does not show up in there. I still have to pay tax though. (my rate shown takes account of the whole 15 months time not just 12 months rate) I'm very intrigued as to why you seem to have such a high default level though. How many defaults is that for each month. Almost all my plus loans are £10, a few are £20 so i had about 14 defaults in August. I have just under £15k now in Zopa after withdrawing all repayments for the last 6 months. £12k of that is in plus so defaults from plus are not only bigger than plus repayments but they're also wiping out any profit from my £3k classic and access loans. Overall I'm still up on the last 12 months due to the better months before defaults started coming in but unless performance improves quickly I can see my return going negative and capital being lost. Missed payments keep rising so I expect defaults to too. I've been in Zopa since almost the start and qualify for early adopter bonus so that's being wiped out too by plus defaults. I've lost all faith in Zopa now and will continue to withdraw. Also I've never received a single penny from a defaulted loan. Well done Zopa!
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aju
Member of DD Central
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Post by aju on Sept 5, 2017 15:57:45 GMT
I think I've been very lucky as still only 3 defaults, 1 each in May,July,Aug. All my plus loans are £10 as I only lent £1060 into that. My interest so far is £101. Assuming defaults ( £28.78) are lost and just using simple figures that means my current interest rate is 5.24% since the start of my plus lend in May 2016. Whilst that is not the headline its still acceptable. Next few months will give a better indicator though. My interest is slightly better as these figures are from the current csv and early adopter (0.5%) does not show up in there. I still have to pay tax though. (my rate shown takes account of the whole 15 months time not just 12 months rate) I'm very intrigued as to why you seem to have such a high default level though. How many defaults is that for each month. Almost all my plus loans are £10, a few are £20 so i had about 14 defaults in August. I have just under £15k now in Zopa after withdrawing all repayments for the last 6 months. £12k of that is in plus so defaults from plus are not only bigger than plus repayments but they're also wiping out any profit from my £3k classic and access loans. Overall I'm still up on the last 12 months due to the better months before defaults started coming in but unless performance improves quickly I can see my return going negative and capital being lost. Missed payments keep rising so I expect defaults to too. I've been in Zopa since almost the start and qualify for early adopter bonus so that's being wiped out too by plus defaults. I've lost all faith in Zopa now and will continue to withdraw. Also I've never received a single penny from a defaulted loan. Well done Zopa! Okay, so you clearly have more invested in Plus than I have. Assuming that all your defaulted loans are for £10 or less then you have 41 loans in default. My 3 defaults in Plus equate to 2.8% of loans (104) failing (My original lend in Plus was from May 2016). So taking the guess of 41 loans I assume you have that are defaulted and using my default rate 2.8% then you probably have in the region of 1464 loans originally in Plus. If you have more loans then your loan default rate is better than mine if you have less then your rate is worse. Just to clarify also I now have 1090 loans in Plus with the 15 months of interest and 0.5% early adopter added in but i've ignored that bit. My experience so far (not current Plus defaults) is that in the region of 50% of defaulted value has eventually been returned - of course that may not be the case with these new ones and also whilst the value has been returned I'm still £150 down over the last 7 years of loans. I have of course made much much more than the loss in interest and generally over the last 2 years I've been running at roughly 5% over the whole investment. What I did do when I decided to commit to lending on Z-Plus was to actually make sure that I only committed 10% of my zopa investment at the time as I was not sure how it might fare. I think that was a good move now looking at some of the blogs and emails coming through on the current default rates. In my ISA I have also committed similar split amounts (90:10) across ISAPLus and ISACore but of course Core is not protected (Over 25% of my ISAcore outlay is in fact protected as many of the loans I picked up were for SG loans so that was a bonus). Time will tell whether my investment goes downhill but I have taken additional steps to limit lending to £10 loan chunks, hopefully that will limit the hit rate as much as possible.
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Post by BrianC on Sept 6, 2017 3:10:25 GMT
After another withdrawal today I now have in Plus:
£11,415 over 1210 loans. So <£10 per loan average.
On top of defaults I have £48 of missed repayments over 61 loans making 5% of current loans vulnerable to defaults in coming months.
I think the higher risk and higher %return loans are defaulting leaving the safer loans at very low %returns unable to make up the difference leaving me with negative monthly returns. The fact I'm so well diversified makes this look bad for plus.
In fairness to plus as said before I'm still up overall due to good months before defaults started coming in but if I keep losing money every month that will soon change. And it just looks so bad when you're making monthly losses regardless of previous better months. I had £20k in Zopa at one point and would have continued increasing had plus not turned so bad.
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aju
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Post by aju on Sept 6, 2017 9:26:35 GMT
I think there was a discussion a while back about the loans that get closed being high ones leaving more loans in the low zone. Of course zopa's engine will spread that out over time. A number of people have suggested that the danger default zone is 12-18 months but again my experience is not of that nature.
I guess its a bit like stocks and shares for someone to gain someone has to lose and I guess that this is zopa's modelling engine that has to try and cope with this.
The one thing I have wondered about zopas engine is how it mitigates default losses in it engines algorithms. My guess is it doesn't actually do anything about it but who knows.
My overall (preISA) rate of 5% is based on a plus:classic(sg) ratio of 10:90 so who knows what might happen when non sg core starts to expose the defaults.
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marie
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Post by marie on Sept 6, 2017 14:28:08 GMT
I too have decided to stop re-investing in Zopa after what looks like a bad miscalculation from Zopas side regarding expected returns.
I am currently down to 14K in Plus, and in the middle of the rough patch default wise (6-9 months according to Zopa). I suspect that my return will get better once my portfolio matures and I'll consider adding fresh investments when/if things pick up. But for now I am another name to add to the list of people drawing down their investments...
I am also disappointed by the rate Zopa gets in payments on defaulted loans. Out of £226 worth of defaulted loans, only £1.14 has been recovered. I hope this figure will improve, but so far its looking a bit grim.
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aju
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Post by aju on Sept 6, 2017 15:38:27 GMT
Sadly the defaults can take considerably longer than you might be happy with. I have 30+ defaults from old pre-SG days where some are paying, some have been bankrupted and many are paying very slowly - some won't finish at their current rate until beyond 2022. One thing is though of those that defaulted about 50% are still paying back so all is not lost completely.
The only issue I have with closing stuff down early is that defaults cannot be sold and closing/selling on good loans costs 1% and also the true rate on those loans is less than the headline rate depending how far they have gone. I'm pretty certain that running down a relending book results in lower returns as well. I think!
One thing I do know though is that I am still up on the deal on these pre-SG loans as I have long since costed in the defaults when they occurred some years back now.
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