jonah
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Post by jonah on Jun 11, 2017 7:47:27 GMT
Almost as dishonest as the Leave Campaign me thinks, was that a saving of £350m a week that we can then spend on the NHS I recall them promising! And of course the Remain campaign was scrupulously honest and forthright? But just a minute - wasn't the world as we know it supposed to imminently end in Armageddon if mere citizens dared defy the political elites and chattering classes and vote Leave (I vaguely remember it was latterly alluded to as 'Project Fear')?
Well that all turned out to be total bo**ocks didn't it. It's nearly a year on since the referendum and I've not seen a single locust, frog or horse-rider yet!!
Get over it.
Whilst I agree that the world hasn't ended, I suspect that the economy is dropping. The uk had the lowest growth in the G7 in Q1 this year which I think is the first time in a very long time. The uk also had the lowest growth in the EU which I think is the first time ever. Now low growth is not frogs or locusts and a single quarter is not a pattern, especially after much better growth in Q3 and 4 last year, but IF this is the start of a pattern then it isn't the start of a good one. The lack of certainty from the election is unlikely to improve the economic outlook for June, but I suspect that, by this time next year, the pattern of low or maybe even negative growth in the uk as compared with the rest of Europe will be a lot clearer. Unfortunately.
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Post by oldnick on Jun 11, 2017 8:28:38 GMT
Almost as dishonest as the Leave Campaign me thinks, was that a saving of £350m a week that we can then spend on the NHS I recall them promising! Correction: that claim was made by the Johnson/Gove wing, and repudiated by the Farage wing at the time. I think most people were voting on broader issues than exactly how many of our own billions we would actually get back. Very large numbers mean very little to most people. Let's hope 'very large numbers' did mean something to most people, otherwise the arguments for and against Brexit were not understood by those who voted. How could an opinion have been formed on leaving or remaining without an understanding of the claims made about the financial costs of being in the EU, or of the actual numbers of unwelcome immigrants and the associated costs borne by our infrastructure? Regaining sovereignty didn't require a grasp of large numbers, but rather a distaste for doing the bidding of foreigners (as defined by anyone who wasn't born in the UK). Sadly, pooled sovereignty is one of the trade-offs of society - our local 'sovereignty' will be in the hands of Westminster after Brexit, and the regions are just as likely to get the short end of the stick.
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rxdav
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Post by rxdav on Jun 11, 2017 9:11:17 GMT
And of course the Remain campaign was scrupulously honest and forthright? But just a minute - wasn't the world as we know it supposed to imminently end in Armageddon if mere citizens dared defy the political elites and chattering classes and vote Leave (I vaguely remember it was latterly alluded to as 'Project Fear')?
Well that all turned out to be total bo**ocks didn't it. It's nearly a year on since the referendum and I've not seen a single locust, frog or horse-rider yet!!
Get over it.
Whilst I agree that the world hasn't ended, I suspect that the economy is dropping. The uk had the lowest growth in the G7 in Q1 this year which I think is the first time in a very long time. The uk also had the lowest growth in the EU which I think is the first time ever. Now low growth is not frogs or locusts and a single quarter is not a pattern, especially after much better growth in Q3 and 4 last year, but IF this is the start of a pattern then it isn't the start of a good one. The lack of certainty from the election is unlikely to improve the economic outlook for June, but I suspect that, by this time next year, the pattern of low or maybe even negative growth in the uk as compared with the rest of Europe will be a lot clearer. Unfortunately. You may prove correct or not about a period of low growth in UK in 2017 - only time will tell. As you note, the UK actually did very well in Q3 and Q4 2016 - the point is that growth can and does accelerate, growth can and does slow - it's cyclical - and that's quite normal.
My research couldn't identify exactly how many periods of low growth and/or recession the UK has experienced since joining the EU in 1973 - but being born in 1953 I experienced all of them as an adult - and there was certainly no shortage. However, strangely, I don't remember our membership of the EU during that period being blamed as the sole causation for those periods of low growth and/or recession (unlike our forthcoming non membership will likely be endlessly cited as the sole causation of any bad economic news). The economy is cyclical - and whether members of the EU or not that will not change - there will always be periods of high growth and low growth, boom and recession - it was ever thus.
But however this plays out - we will at least be masters of our own destiny. The day we simply can't cope as a nation without the 'guiding benevolence' of Merkel and Junker et al will be a very, very sad day indeed.
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yangmills
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Post by yangmills on Jun 11, 2017 9:44:45 GMT
Whilst I agree that the world hasn't ended, I suspect that the economy is dropping. The uk had the lowest growth in the G7 in Q1 this year which I think is the first time in a very long time. The uk also had the lowest growth in the EU which I think is the first time ever. Now low growth is not frogs or locusts and a single quarter is not a pattern, especially after much better growth in Q3 and 4 last year, but IF this is the start of a pattern then it isn't the start of a good one. The lack of certainty from the election is unlikely to improve the economic outlook for June, but I suspect that, by this time next year, the pattern of low or maybe even negative growth in the uk as compared with the rest of Europe will be a lot clearer. Unfortunately. Those favouring Leave have been very happy to call out the economists who argued for the economy to roll-over on a Brexit vote. This was a fair call because the economy didn't roll over immediately post Vote. However, it's worth remembering that corporates didn't sit idly by in the run-up to the vote. The evidence suggests that those dependent on imports hedged their currency exposure by at least 50%+ by executing fx forwards, typically between 6m to 18m in term. As a result the exporters gained an instant benefit from weaker Sterling, importers were neutral or only slightly negatively impacted, and cost-push inflation was subdued. Economic models didn't take this behaviour into account. However, as those fx forwards roll-off (and most now have) the importers will be fully exposed to the weakness in trade-weighted Sterling, with a negative impact on their margins and a further impact on inflation. The economists may well turn out to be correct about the downturn but albeit wrong in terms of timing.
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jo
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dead
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Post by jo on Jun 11, 2017 10:23:05 GMT
I've seen 6 changes of party-in-government in my life and I don't believe any has impacted on how my life has gone. As a result, not caring which party wins makes for a very relaxed life......and I'm very relaxed right now. If I was appointed Dictator, the first thing I'd do is ban political reporting and phone-ins etc. Seems to me that this is the root of the problem. All they seem to do is inflame one side or the other and give the impression that every single run of the mill political event has some massive implication - which it doesn't. This has resulted in the (utterly false imo) impression the everything is 'chaotic'. Look out the window, nothing much changes - the only beneficiaries are political journalists/pundits who are making-out like bandits by keeping us all angry.
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Post by chielamangus on Jun 11, 2017 10:59:32 GMT
The economists may well turn out to be correct about the downturn but albeit wrong in terms of timing. As an economist, I think I can claim to be right in virtually every bit of analysis/forecasting I have been involved in. My problem is that I hardly ever got the timing right. And that is what is important.
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Post by chielamangus on Jun 11, 2017 11:25:29 GMT
Let's hope 'very large numbers' did mean something to most people, otherwise the arguments for and against Brexit were not understood by those who voted. How could an opinion have been formed on leaving or remaining without an understanding of the claims made about the financial costs of being in the EU, or of the actual numbers of unwelcome immigrants and the associated costs borne by our infrastructure? Regaining sovereignty didn't require a grasp of large numbers, but rather a distaste for doing the bidding of foreigners (as defined by anyone who wasn't born in the UK). Sadly, pooled sovereignty is one of the trade-offs of society - our local 'sovereignty' will be in the hands of Westminster after Brexit, and the regions are just as likely to get the short end of the stick. Actually, very large numbers do not mean much to most people. Politicians talk about millions here, billions there, but it just means a lot of dough to most people, even though if presented on a per adult or household basis it may not be that much. But at least people could put these large sums into a familiar context. For example, the CAP costs billions but none of us seem to pay for it directly. It's somebody else's dosh. But if told that the CAP costs every household £1000 per year, wouldn't that make people think? By the way, the £1000 per household was a figure from a few years back when I was actively involved in policy analysis - it may be more or less today. What about GDP growth which is a favoured measure by economists and some on this thread? It has nothing to do with economic well-being. If immigration boosts population numbers and some of these work, GDP rises. But average incomes may well fall, and they certainly will in those sectors in which the immigrants are competing. Governments like GDP growth (and therefore immigration) because that means a larger tax base. But the cost of immigration (large-scale, I should add, such as we have seen in the last decade) falls largely on the poorer unskilled segment of the population, who also face increased competition for housing, while the extra demand for hospital and medical services, space etc falls on the general population as evidenced by rising queues for health services, increasing congestion, pollution etc. The so-called liberals just see cheaper goods and services from this influx, and most of them are well off enough to enjoy their increased purchasing power. Small wonder Corbyn made inroads. His vote was part of the broader anti-establishment sentiment which, I would have thought, the Conservative party should have recognised.
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Post by yorkshireman on Jun 11, 2017 12:25:30 GMT
Let's hope 'very large numbers' did mean something to most people, otherwise the arguments for and against Brexit were not understood by those who voted. How could an opinion have been formed on leaving or remaining without an understanding of the claims made about the financial costs of being in the EU, or of the actual numbers of unwelcome immigrants and the associated costs borne by our infrastructure? Regaining sovereignty didn't require a grasp of large numbers, but rather a distaste for doing the bidding of foreigners (as defined by anyone who wasn't born in the UK). Sadly, pooled sovereignty is one of the trade-offs of society - our local 'sovereignty' will be in the hands of Westminster after Brexit, and the regions are just as likely to get the short end of the stick. Actually, very large numbers do not mean much to most people. Politicians talk about millions here, billions there, but it just means a lot of dough to most people, even though if presented on a per adult or household basis it may not be that much. But at least people could put these large sums into a familiar context. For example, the CAP costs billions but none of us seem to pay for it directly. It's somebody else's dosh. But if told that the CAP costs every household £1000 per year, wouldn't that make people think? By the way, the £1000 per household was a figure from a few years back when I was actively involved in policy analysis - it may be more or less today. What about GDP growth which is a favoured measure by economists and some on this thread? It has nothing to do with economic well-being. If immigration boosts population numbers and some of these work, GDP rises. But average incomes may well fall, and they certainly will in those sectors in which the immigrants are competing. Governments like GDP growth (and therefore immigration) because that means a larger tax base. But the cost of immigration (large-scale, I should add, such as we have seen in the last decade) falls largely on the poorer unskilled segment of the population, who also face increased competition for housing, while the extra demand for hospital and medical services, space etc falls on the general population as evidenced by rising queues for health services, increasing congestion, pollution etc. The so-called liberals just see cheaper goods and services from this influx, and most of them are well off enough to enjoy their increased purchasing power. Small wonder Corbyn made inroads. His vote was part of the broader anti-establishment sentiment which, I would have thought, the Conservative party should have recognised. “Actually, very large numbers do not mean much to most people.” True and I also I believe that many people have no idea of where the money the government spends on the NHS, etc. etc. comes from, they don’t connect the taxes they pay with the services they receive, the “magic money tree” is well and truly rooted in many people’s minds and I'm not just referring to the young.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jun 11, 2017 12:25:36 GMT
British Public really don't like being told how to think, especially by the EU but also from the media and lifer domestic politicians, they will cut off their own nose to prove that they don't like it. The Powers that be, know this, they learnt this beyond any doubt during 2016. And yet the British public swallowed the downright lies of the media and lifer domestic politicians wholesale... The whole sorry fiasco is summed up by one simple dichotomy. TM was a leaver-at-heart pretending to be a remainer for career advantage. BJ was a remainer-at-heart pretending to be a leaver for career advantage.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Jun 11, 2017 12:57:20 GMT
Not really debatable in the forseeable future - see e.g. www.economist.com/news/leaders/21723191-conservatives-botched-campaign-will-bring-chaosand-opportunities-theresa-mays-failed-gamble"the economy is heading for the rocks in a way that few have yet registered. Whereas in 2016 the economy defied the Brexit referendum to grow at the fastest pace in the G7, in the first quarter of this year it was the slowest. Unemployment is at its lowest in decades, but with inflation at a three-year high and rising, real wages are falling. Tax revenues and growth will suffer as inward investment falls and net migration of skilled Europeans tails off. Voters are blissfully unaware of the coming crunch. Just when they have signalled at the ballot box that they have had enough of austerity, they are about to face even harder times." Only really debatable in relation to a very long time hence, and whether the very real pain we are about to endure will have been worth it and the losses can be made up. If you believe The Economist, you will believe anything. They have peddled a narrow, text book, view of the economy, combined with a condescending arrogance, for decades now. I stopped my subscription about 20 years ago. One of their many problems is that they treat labour just as a factor of production, and not as human. They have no idea, trapped in their London or New York bubbles, what really makes us tick. It's not all about money. There are many other motivations in life.And that is one view of mine that has never changed in 60 years, even in the years when I was money-poor or "just about managing". Of course. It's just that the discussion was about the economy. And the economy is going to be adversely affected by Brexit, says just about everyone with any expertise in the matter, not just The Economist. Still, the UK public has apparently had enough of experts, so we'll see how it pans out.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Jun 11, 2017 13:02:28 GMT
Whilst I agree that the world hasn't ended, I suspect that the economy is dropping. The uk had the lowest growth in the G7 in Q1 this year which I think is the first time in a very long time. The uk also had the lowest growth in the EU which I think is the first time ever. Now low growth is not frogs or locusts and a single quarter is not a pattern, especially after much better growth in Q3 and 4 last year, but IF this is the start of a pattern then it isn't the start of a good one. The lack of certainty from the election is unlikely to improve the economic outlook for June, but I suspect that, by this time next year, the pattern of low or maybe even negative growth in the uk as compared with the rest of Europe will be a lot clearer. Unfortunately. You may prove correct or not about a period of low growth in UK in 2017 - only time will tell. As you note, the UK actually did very well in Q3 and Q4 2016 - the point is that growth can and does accelerate, growth can and does slow - it's cyclical - and that's quite normal.
My research couldn't identify exactly how many periods of low growth and/or recession the UK has experienced since joining the EU in 1973 - but being born in 1953 I experienced all of them as an adult - and there was certainly no shortage. However, strangely, I don't remember our membership of the EU during that period being blamed as the sole causation for those periods of low growth and/or recession (unlike our forthcoming non membership will likely be endlessly cited as the sole causation of any bad economic news). The economy is cyclical - and whether members of the EU or not that will not change - there will always be periods of high growth and low growth, boom and recession - it was ever thus.
But however this plays out - we will at least be masters of our own destiny. The day we simply can't cope as a nation without the 'guiding benevolence' of Merkel and Junker et al will be a very, very sad day indeed.
We'll be quick to blame someone else - the EU, the politicians, the voters in 2016 - if it does turn out badly. But yes, whatever happens we chose it by a narrow majority, when asked a question that, a small had core aside, was not high on most people's priorities.
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ozboy
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Mine's a Large One! (Snigger, snigger .......)
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Post by ozboy on Jun 11, 2017 13:22:15 GMT
Almost as dishonest as the Leave Campaign me thinks, was that a saving of £350m a week that we can then spend on the NHS I recall them promising! Correction: that claim was made by the Johnson/Gove wing, and repudiated by the Farage wing at the time. I think most people were voting on broader issues than exactly how many of our own billions we would actually get back. Very large numbers mean very little to most people. The Remainers regularly (and boringly) quote the NHS £350M per week lie as if their own campaign was Snow White. I can't recall the exact figures, but I do remember that in the early stages we were being told by the Remain camp that the average family would be c£1,000 pa worse off if we Left. This figure then desperately escalated weekly until, in the week or so before the Referendum, I vaguely recall, and happy to be corrected, that if we Left it was going to cost every family more than £4,500 pa or some such? No lies there then? What short memories some have. It's Politics. They ALL lie. The trick of course is to do your own DD (where have I heard that before?!) and come to your own, informed conclusions. [ EDIT: I've changed the c£1,000 figure from weekly to pa ]
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jun 11, 2017 13:52:02 GMT
The Remainers regularly quote the NHS £350M per week lie as if their own campaign was Snow White. I can't recall the exact figures, but I do remember that in the early stages we were being told by the Remain camp that the average family would be c£1,000 a week worse off if we Left. This figure then desperately escalated weekly until, I vaguely recall, and happy to be corrected, that if we Left it was going to cost every family £4,500 pa or some such? Even ignoring the difference in relative weightings of each campaign in using those numbers... Several figures are quoted on this page... www.strongerin.co.uk/get_the_facts£38/week average wage - attributed to the TUC. £350/year food cost - attributed to the LSE. £4,300/year cost to average family - attributed to HM Treasury. Meanwhile, Andrew Dilnot, head of the UK Statistics Authority, explicitly told the Leave campaign to stop using the £350m figure a month before the vote - and the CPS are investigating its use. Then there were the various other outright lies and utter misrepresentations in the official one-per-household leaflet that was sent out.
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Post by yorkshireman on Jun 11, 2017 13:53:01 GMT
i'm not sure what corbyn has got, but it seemed to excite them enough into voting for him. A magic money tree and nothing more.
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Post by yorkshireman on Jun 11, 2017 14:00:11 GMT
just shows tories will always put power and their party ahead of the best interests of the country. And that’s just what you’ll get if Corbyn was to win a majority next time round. All the moderates and erstwhile Blairites will hold their noses and work with Jezza in order to “unite to bring the country together” when all they’re really interested in is power, Chuka Umunna was visibly drooling over the prospect of power in an interview in the small hours of this morning. "All the moderates and erstwhile Blairites will hold their noses and work with Jezza in order to “unite to bring the country together” Never mind another election, it’s happening sooner than I forecast: www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/11/jeremy-corbyn-vows-vote-queens-speech-topple-theresa-may/Corbyn's "useful idiots" Hypocrites, like all politicians.
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