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Post by bracknellboy on Jan 13, 2024 15:08:41 GMT
It's possible that France was actually approached but declined to take part: they have made a point of saying their assets are only protecting French ships. Which TBF is a bit s*** of them. typical attitude from them, presumably they will expect us and the US to help if more of their ships are attacked than they can handle at once, at the moment though the Houthi drones are apparently costing £17,000 each we are using missiles at £1m each to destroy them correct. Because unfortunately T45s are not equipped with any 'cheap' anti drone type system. In fact I doubt anyone's currently are. It has Sea Viper, developed under the PAAMS moniker. Which is the same system that the French ships are equipped with, and the Italians, just under a different name (Aster I think). That of course is because it was a joint Italian-French-UK development. The French and Italian ships I think do have additional weapons systems that may be pertient: but whether any of those are capable of taking out drones I've no idea. That's the problem with drones, certainly at the moment. Cheap to make, expensive to take down. Same problem Urkaine has. EDIT: I may have done the French a slight disservice. I'm not sure they said they were only protecting French shipping: I may have misread that bit (they have said they are only working in concert with others, not as a joined up single command operation, or words to that effect).
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Jan 13, 2024 15:38:43 GMT
The £17,000 / £1m cost discussion seems to missing some rather important elements.
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ilmoro
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Post by ilmoro on Jan 13, 2024 17:18:14 GMT
typical attitude from them, presumably they will expect us and the US to help if more of their ships are attacked than they can handle at once, at the moment though the Houthi drones are apparently costing £17,000 each we are using missiles at £1m each to destroy them correct. Because unfortunately T45s are not equipped with any 'cheap' anti drone type system. In fact I doubt anyone's currently are. It has Sea Viper, developed under the PAAMS moniker. Which is the same system that the French ships are equipped with, and the Italians, just under a different name (Aster I think). That of course is because it was a joint Italian-French-UK development. The French and Italian ships I think do have additional weapons systems that may be pertient: but whether any of those are capable of taking out drones I've no idea. That's the problem with drones, certainly at the moment. Cheap to make, expensive to take down. Same problem Urkaine has. EDIT: I may have done the French a slight disservice. I'm not sure they said they were only protecting French shipping: I may have misread that bit (they have said they are only working in concert with others, not as a joined up single command operation, or words to that effect). The Languedoc (French ship on station) doesnt have any other systems to deal with drones other than close in defence autocannon, Diamond has CIWS, neither probably suitable for knocking down drones at a safe distance from targets unless they were under escort. Sea Viper is the platform, Aster are the missiles it launches French priority is protecting/escorting French ships, though patrolling area in cooperation with PG forces www.reuters.com/world/french-military-escorting-french-ships-through-red-sea-naval-commander-2024-01-11/www.politico.eu/article/eu-make-muddled-response-crisis-red-sea/
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Post by bracknellboy on Jan 13, 2024 18:16:01 GMT
correct. Because unfortunately T45s are not equipped with any 'cheap' anti drone type system. In fact I doubt anyone's currently are. It has Sea Viper, developed under the PAAMS moniker. Which is the same system that the French ships are equipped with, and the Italians, just under a different name (Aster I think). That of course is because it was a joint Italian-French-UK development. The French and Italian ships I think do have additional weapons systems that may be pertient: but whether any of those are capable of taking out drones I've no idea. That's the problem with drones, certainly at the moment. Cheap to make, expensive to take down. Same problem Urkaine has. EDIT: I may have done the French a slight disservice. I'm not sure they said they were only protecting French shipping: I may have misread that bit (they have said they are only working in concert with others, not as a joined up single command operation, or words to that effect). The Languedoc (French ship on station) doesnt have any other systems to deal with drones other than close in defence autocannon, Diamond has CIWS, neither probably suitable for knocking down drones at a safe distance from targets unless they were under escort. Sea Viper is the platform, Aster are the missiles it launches French priority is protecting/escorting French ships, though patrolling area in cooperation with PG forces www.reuters.com/world/french-military-escorting-french-ships-through-red-sea-naval-commander-2024-01-11/www.politico.eu/article/eu-make-muddled-response-crisis-red-sea/You are correct that Sea Viper is the system as far as RN is concerned: that was my intended meaning. I had overlooked/forgotten that Aster was the common name for the missiles. Thanks. It is a few years since I had involvement with it, and in those days the whole lot was still colloquially referred to as PAAMS, whether UK, It or FR.* As you say, CIWS I strongly suspect is not going to be useful other for point/self defence, or it is unhealthily up close to an intended target. It can't provide the sort of 'area defence' that they need to provide. "Good" to see that my memory wasn't entirely failing me with regard to Macron's statement about their intent: I thought I had read it somewhere. *What I hadn't realised is that the Aster is actually incorporated into essentially two different systems: PAAMS (->Sea Viper in RN) which is RN, It and FR, but also into a separate It-Fr system, which while a derivative of PAAMS isn't PAAMS (and equips the FREMM class).
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Post by bracknellboy on Jan 13, 2024 18:16:32 GMT
The £17,000 / £1m cost discussion seems to missing some rather important elements. quite.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Jan 13, 2024 19:10:33 GMT
The £17,000 / £1m cost discussion seems to missing some rather important elements. The cost of running some warships a few thousand miles away ?
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on Jan 14, 2024 0:54:58 GMT
The £17,000 / £1m cost discussion seems to missing some rather important elements. The cost of running some warships a few thousand miles away ? You will have to give them a few months before they realise the reality of the situation. They are probably dreaming about Houthis running in terror as they see what is left of the royal navy coming over the horizon. Anyone with any common sense will see bombing the Houthis is going to do nothing, they are extremely well armed (cruise missiles etc) and probably can disrupt shipping in the region indefinitely. Shipping operators and insurers are very risk adverse and having one of the most powerful and well armed Guerrilla armies in the world threatening to sink ships in the region will probably scare them off. Unless the US wants another embarrassment like Afghanistan they should look to solve this with diplomacy.
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ilmoro
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Post by ilmoro on Jan 14, 2024 12:51:43 GMT
The cost of running some warships a few thousand miles away ? You will have to give them a few months before they realise the reality of the situation. They are probably dreaming about Houthis running in terror as they see what is left of the royal navy coming over the horizon. Anyone with any common sense will see bombing the Houthis is going to do nothing, they are extremely well armed (cruise missiles etc) and probably can disrupt shipping in the region indefinitely. Shipping operators and insurers are very risk adverse and having one of the most powerful and well armed Guerrilla armies in the world threatening to sink ships in the region will probably scare them off. Unless the US wants another embarrassment like Afghanistan they should look to solve this with diplomacy. No, they fully understand the difficulties combatting a relatively mobile threat, not least because they have little intelligence on Houthis positions as it hasn't been a focus area. 20-30% degradation of capability is the assessment of the strikes.
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on Jan 14, 2024 13:49:02 GMT
You will have to give them a few months before they realise the reality of the situation. They are probably dreaming about Houthis running in terror as they see what is left of the royal navy coming over the horizon. Anyone with any common sense will see bombing the Houthis is going to do nothing, they are extremely well armed (cruise missiles etc) and probably can disrupt shipping in the region indefinitely. Shipping operators and insurers are very risk adverse and having one of the most powerful and well armed Guerrilla armies in the world threatening to sink ships in the region will probably scare them off. Unless the US wants another embarrassment like Afghanistan they should look to solve this with diplomacy. No, they fully understand the difficulties combatting a relatively mobile threat, not least because they have little intelligence on Houthis positions as it hasn't been a focus area. 20-30% degradation of capability is the assessment of the strikes.
Are these "estimates" from the same people who told you Russia was just a "Gas Station Masquerading as a Country" and that Ukraine could easily win in a war against them with superior Western Military technology?
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Jan 14, 2024 15:46:24 GMT
You will have to give them a few months before they realise the reality of the situation. They are probably dreaming about Houthis running in terror as they see what is left of the royal navy coming over the horizon. Anyone with any common sense will see bombing the Houthis is going to do nothing, they are extremely well armed (cruise missiles etc) and probably can disrupt shipping in the region indefinitely. Shipping operators and insurers are very risk adverse and having one of the most powerful and well armed Guerrilla armies in the world threatening to sink ships in the region will probably scare them off. Unless the US wants another embarrassment like Afghanistan they should look to solve this with diplomacy. No, they fully understand the difficulties combatting a relatively mobile threat, not least because they have little intelligence on Houthis positions as it hasn't been a focus area. 20-30% degradation of capability is the assessment of the strikes. So if the US and UK did that in one or two nights shouldn't their capability be non-existent now given strikes from Saudi for years?
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Jan 14, 2024 17:00:45 GMT
No, they fully understand the difficulties combatting a relatively mobile threat, not least because they have little intelligence on Houthis positions as it hasn't been a focus area. 20-30% degradation of capability is the assessment of the strikes. So if the US and UK did that in one or two nights shouldn't their capability be non-existent now given strikes from Saudi for years? Different military aims. Different target sets.
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keitha
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Post by keitha on Jan 16, 2024 10:59:48 GMT
or if you look at it another way and its why many people don't get what to me is simple maths,
50% off sale, this weekend an extra 25% off many see that and think you will pay 25% of the original cost and can't get their heads round it being 37.5%.
so if we take out 10% of their capability each night ( and they don't recover anything )
day 1 90.00
day 2 81.00
day 3 72.90
day 4 65.61
day 5 59.05
day 6 53.14
day 7 47.83
day 8 43.05
day 9 38.74
day 10 34.87
after 10 days of destroying 10% they still have nearly 35%
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on Jan 16, 2024 13:39:00 GMT
or if you look at it another way and its why many people don't get what to me is simple maths, 50% off sale, this weekend an extra 25% off many see that and think you will pay 25% of the original cost and can't get their heads round it being 37.5%. so if we take out 10% of their capability each night ( and they don't recover anything ) day 1 90.00 day 2 81.00 day 3 72.90 day 4 65.61 day 5 59.05 day 6 53.14 day 7 47.83 day 8 43.05 day 9 38.74 day 10 34.87 after 10 days of destroying 10% they still have nearly 35% You are right some people don't understand basic math. It still goes to zero: 0.9^50 = 0.2% Besides it is probably more additive than multiplicative - assuming the air strikes are doing anything at all which they probably do not. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saudi-led_intervention_in_the_Yemeni_civil_war
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Jan 16, 2024 16:29:41 GMT
I quite like this chap's work.
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Post by bernythedolt on Jan 16, 2024 16:41:04 GMT
or if you look at it another way and its why many people don't get what to me is simple maths, 50% off sale, this weekend an extra 25% off many see that and think you will pay 25% of the original cost and can't get their heads round it being 37.5%. so if we take out 10% of their capability each night ( and they don't recover anything ) day 1 90.00 day 2 81.00 day 3 72.90 day 4 65.61 day 5 59.05 day 6 53.14 day 7 47.83 day 8 43.05 day 9 38.74 day 10 34.87 after 10 days of destroying 10% they still have nearly 35% You are right some people don't understand basic math. It still goes to zero: 0.9^50 = 0.2% Besides it is probably more additive than multiplicative - assuming the air strikes are doing anything at all which they probably do not. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saudi-led_intervention_in_the_Yemeni_civil_warCall me pedantic, but 0.9^50 = 0.5%. You need to iterate 59 times to reach as low as 0.2%, since 0.9^59 = 0.2%
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