cooling_dude
Bye Bye's for the PPI
Posts: 2,853
Likes: 4,298
|
Post by cooling_dude on Feb 20, 2016 2:08:08 GMT
My system is similar to those mentioned above. But i dont mind going oversubscribed on the new loans for a short period. At the moment i am oversubscribed on 73 , 77 and 80. All picked up on the SM . But once the new loans are released i will sell the extra , I know it is slightly risky . But the SM market is working very well at the moment . As there is a minimal immediate risk in any of the newer loans, regardless of DD or LTV, I'm happy to have them on my books for a month or so. However after a month, my own DD kicks in and I'll look to get rid of any dodgy looking loans.
|
|
|
Post by dodgeydave on Feb 20, 2016 2:36:26 GMT
My system is similar to those mentioned above. But i dont mind going oversubscribed on the new loans for a short period. At the moment i am oversubscribed on 73 , 77 and 80. All picked up on the SM . But once the new loans are released i will sell the extra , I know it is slightly risky . But the SM market is working very well at the moment . As there is a minimal immediate risk in any of the newer loans, regardless of DD or LTV, I'm happy to have them on my books for a month or so. However after a month, my own DD kicks in and I'll look to get rid of any dodgy looking loans. Agree and that why we need the SM to remain as fluid as it is.
|
|
mikes1531
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,453
Likes: 2,320
|
Post by mikes1531 on Feb 20, 2016 2:48:42 GMT
As there is a minimal immediate risk in any of the newer loans, regardless of DD or LTV, I'm happy to have them on my books for a month or so. However after a month, my own DD kicks in and I'll look to get rid of any dodgy looking loans. Agree and that why we need the SM to remain as fluid as it is. So how do we convince the hordes of buyers that they really want to own more short-dated loans?
|
|
|
Post by dodgeydave on Feb 20, 2016 3:27:03 GMT
Agree and that why we need the SM to remain as fluid as it is. So how do we convince the hordes of buyers that they really want to own more short-dated loans? At the moment they do not need convincing all the short dated loans move. I guess everyone has there own game plan. And how many lenders on SS actually read this
|
|
ben
Posts: 2,020
Likes: 589
|
Post by ben on Feb 20, 2016 7:27:25 GMT
My system is similar to those mentioned above. But i dont mind going oversubscribed on the new loans for a short period. At the moment i am oversubscribed on 73 , 77 and 80. All picked up on the SM . But once the new loans are released i will sell the extra , I know it is slightly risky . But the SM market is working very well at the moment . I doubt at the moment it will make much difference but if one of the bigger loans to fail to repay then it will be a different story at the moment people are buying as if it is guaranteed, just buying anything they, in the short term your strategy will probably work but could be a bit risky in the long term.
|
|
|
Post by dodgeydave on Feb 20, 2016 9:33:34 GMT
My system is similar to those mentioned above. But i dont mind going oversubscribed on the new loans for a short period. At the moment i am oversubscribed on 73 , 77 and 80. All picked up on the SM . But once the new loans are released i will sell the extra , I know it is slightly risky . But the SM market is working very well at the moment . I doubt at the moment it will make much difference but if one of the bigger loans to fail to repay then it will be a different story at the moment people are buying as if it is guaranteed, just buying anything they, in the short term your strategy will probably work but could be a bit risky in the long term. I couldnt agree more. There are a number of loans i wont / wouldnt buy.
|
|
mikes1531
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,453
Likes: 2,320
|
Post by mikes1531 on Feb 20, 2016 18:42:11 GMT
So how do we convince the hordes of buyers that they really want to own more short-dated loans? At the moment they do not need convincing all the short dated loans move. Things are changing, though. Short-dated loans used to be snapped up instantly, now they don't disappear so quickly. I think it was last night that I watched a loan part with a small number of positive days remaining sit available for more than an hour. If the Watford loans go live shortly as expected, I'd expect the slowness selling short-dated parts to spread from the small hours to the daytime. And if the SS pipeline can continue to supply new loans faster than SS's investor base grows the SM will slow to the point that we'll be able to think about what we buy before we buy it rather than afterwards. And if that happens, people will choose to buy longer dated parts and the liquidity of shorter-dated parts will decline considerably. But that's JMHO, and I may be being too pessimistic. There may be zillions of £££ looking for a place to invest, and no matter how many loans SS can supply there will never be a shortage of people wanting to invest. For now, however, I'm being cautious and limiting my holdings of short-dated loans.
|
|
cooling_dude
Bye Bye's for the PPI
Posts: 2,853
Likes: 4,298
|
Post by cooling_dude on Feb 20, 2016 18:59:51 GMT
At the moment they do not need convincing all the short dated loans move. Things are changing, though. Short-dated loans used to be snapped up instantly, now they don't disappear so quickly. I think it was last night that I watched a loan part with a small number of positive days remaining sit available for more than an hour. If the Watford loans go live shortly as expected, I'd expect the slowness selling short-dated parts to spread from the small hours to the daytime. And if the SS pipeline can continue to supply new loans faster than SS's investor base grows the SM will slow to the point that we'll be able to think about what we buy before we buy it rather than afterwards. And if that happens, people will choose to buy longer dated parts and the liquidity of shorter-dated parts will decline considerably. But that's JMHO, and I may be being too pessimistic. There may be zillions of £££ looking for a place to invest, and no matter how many loans SS can supply there will never be a shortage of people wanting to invest. For now, however, I'm being cautious and limiting my holdings of short-dated loans. Yep, I've also noticed that after the Bedfordshire loan, the less appealing loans have hung around for longer. Last night I also saw the superyacht and (from memory) PBL4a hang around for at least an hour. We're not talking days though so the proverbial muck has certainly not hit the fan..... yet. With the larger pre-funding loans coming soon, I can see some dangerous times ahead for people that were all too willing to invest in riskier loans. One default is all it will take, and that one default could see millions of pounds worth of risky loans dumped on the SM. I'm sorry to say I feel little sympathy for those who get their hands bitten by the above scenario; you can't do no DD (on the loans and the platform) & expect a 12% return for just for having quick fingers.
|
|
SteveT
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,875
Likes: 7,924
|
Post by SteveT on Feb 20, 2016 19:44:12 GMT
Although I don't hold any, I wouldn't be too worried about the current overdue / extended loans. They're all still under the old T&Cs so they are all really loans to Lendy Ltd. The interesting times will really begin when the first of the new T&Cs loans goes overdue.
|
|
mikes1531
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,453
Likes: 2,320
|
Post by mikes1531 on Feb 20, 2016 20:06:03 GMT
Although I don't hold any, I wouldn't be too worried about the current overdue / extended loans. They're all still under the old T&Cs so they are all really loans to Lendy Ltd. The interesting times will really begin when the first of the new T&Cs loans goes overdue. Good point. So we can relax until June, then. Unless, of course, SS 'convert' any older loans to the new Ts&Cs. Which would open a can of worms if one subsequently defaulted since, AFAIK, investors never were asked if they accepted the changed terms after they invested.
|
|
cooling_dude
Bye Bye's for the PPI
Posts: 2,853
Likes: 4,298
|
Post by cooling_dude on Feb 21, 2016 0:26:08 GMT
Although I don't hold any, I wouldn't be too worried about the current overdue / extended loans. They're all still under the old T&Cs so they are all really loans to Lendy Ltd. The interesting times will really begin when the first of the new T&Cs loans goes overdue. Good point. So we can relax until June, then. Unless, of course, SS 'convert' any older loans to the new Ts&Cs. Which would open a can of worms if one subsequently defaulted since, AFAIK, investors never were asked if they accepted the changed terms after they invested. Yes; the difference between the new and old T&Cs is largely who we were/ are lending our money to. However regardless of this fact, a defaulted loan effects the loan, and while it is true that under the old T&Cs it's Lendy Ltd that owes us the money (not the borrower), a defaulted loan still only affects the investors that have invested in that defaulted loan. If at the end of the day, Lendy Ltd can't reclaim some or all of the money owed from a defaulted loan then it would only affect the investor that has invested money in that loan. So, as far as I see it, whether on not a loan is on old or new T&Cs, a risky loan is still going to be dangerous to have at hand if the SM becomes less liquid.
|
|
|
Post by highlandtiger on Feb 21, 2016 8:35:31 GMT
Ah, so people are now worried that the older loans could be hard to shift if there was a default somewhere along the line. Well for a fact, with the LTV's of 70% or less, the chances are you are going to get most if not all your money back. If you can't sell your loans then you will have to sit tight until they come to their natural end and they are repaid. No big deal, you are still earning interest. Of course it might be squeaky bum time, but there is a reason we are getting 12% interest on our cash, he who dares etc.....
|
|
ablender
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,204
Likes: 555
|
Post by ablender on Feb 21, 2016 9:14:41 GMT
Ah, so people are now worried that the older loans could be hard to shift if there was a default somewhere along the line. Well for a fact, with the LTV's of 70% or less, the chances are you are going to get most if not all your money back. If you can't sell your loans then you will have to sit tight until they come to their natural end and they are repaid. No big deal, you are still earning interest. Of course it might be squeaky bum time, but there is a reason we are getting 12% interest on our cash, he who dares etc..... Yes and someone on another thread suggested we should lower the interest rate to make the market less liquid.
|
|
mikes1531
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,453
Likes: 2,320
|
Post by mikes1531 on Feb 21, 2016 12:03:42 GMT
Well for a fact, with the LTV's of 70% or less, the chances are you are going to get most if not all your money back. If you can't sell your loans then you will have to sit tight until they come to their natural end and they are repaid. No big deal, you are still earning interest. My experience with other platforms suggests it isn't that easy to dispose of security if it becomes necessary, and having a 70% LTV can turn out to be too high after the fact. I suppose it depends on whether people are prepared for a 40% loss on occasion. (Getting back 60% of your investment fits within the definition of getting ' most' of your money back.) Suggesting that it's no big deal because you still are earning interest is, IMHO, a bit misleading. In most cases of defaults, while interest may continue to accrue, that means nothing if the interest never is paid because the recovery is insufficient to return 100% of investors' capital. I have some overdue investments accruing interest at 18%, but I've come to the conclusion that I'm unlikely to see any of it, much less all of my invested capital. As long as people understand the risks and are prepared to take some losses, there's no problem. But I suspect that a lot of P2P investors are not that prepared, and that there will be a rush for the exit at the first sign of bad news. And that could be enough to cripple the SM.
|
|
gt94sss2
Member of DD Central
Posts: 281
Likes: 137
|
Post by gt94sss2 on Feb 21, 2016 17:50:45 GMT
Yep, I've also noticed that after the Bedfordshire loan, the less appealing loans have hung around for longer. Last night I also saw the superyacht and (from memory) PBL4a hang around for at least an hour. We're not talking days though so the proverbial muck has certainly not hit the fan..... yet. I don't think there is anything wrong with investing in short dated (or negative loans) per se. For instance: - Loan 6 and the yacht have a very low LTV; - We know 4a and 4b are too be relaunched by SS; and - others like 27 and 36 have clear exit/refinancing strategies. Having been with SS for over a year, my problem is that as older loans mature/repay, the amount I get in newer loans via PF (the 'replacement rate') isn't enough to maintain the size of my overall holding in SS - I don't game the system and have no real desire to spend says on the SM trying to beat others in picking up small bits and pieces - as such I forsee my overall investments in SS going down and the funds going to some other platforms instead
|
|