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Post by captainconfident on Jun 27, 2016 10:36:59 GMT
Hyperbole, of course but if you don't think racism played any part in UKIP's appeal you are deluded. Not all Brexiters were racist but all racists were Brexiters. www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/eu-referendum-racism_uk_576fe161e4b08d2c56396075?edition=ukOK on reflection I regret raising this issue as it is no longer important once that lever had been pulled to achieve the result. It is the problem with dealing with the result which needs to be examined.
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Liz
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Post by Liz on Jun 27, 2016 11:08:12 GMT
Hyperbole, of course but if you don't think racism played any part in UKIP's appeal you are deluded. Not all Brexiters were racist but all racists were Brexiters. OK on reflection I regret raising this issue as it is no longer important once that lever had been pulled to achieve the result. It is the problem with dealing with the result which needs to be examined. This type of talk is divicive and dangerous. I too am going to stick to the p2p section, as nothing posted on here is now positive or constructive.
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Steerpike
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Post by Steerpike on Jun 27, 2016 11:38:44 GMT
Gosh, DOW JONES and the NASDAQ are down about twice as much as the FTSE 100, who would have thought that Brexit would hit the USA so much more than the UK?
Alternatively, perhaps the FTSE 100 would have followed those two down today regardless of the result of the UK EU referendum.
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Post by lb on Jun 27, 2016 11:52:19 GMT
Not yet too late for BJ/MG et al to admit they have made a terrible terrible mistake
How can this free fall be allowed to continue - its like nuking our economy
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Steerpike
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Post by Steerpike on Jun 27, 2016 12:38:28 GMT
Gosh, DOW JONES and the NASDAQ are down about twice as much as the FTSE 100, who would have thought that Brexit would hit the USA so much more than the UK? Alternatively, perhaps the FTSE 100 would have followed those two down today regardless of the result of the UK EU referendum. Globally stock markets are falling because of Brexit. It creates uncertainty, reduces investment, downgrades growth and earnings. These falls are due to the vote. This is obvious. Looking at the FTSE 100 is also not a good indicator. It's full of Sterling hedge stocks, many with EM revenues, that benefit from a weaker currency. Instead look at the FTSE 250 which represents the domestic economy. That is down over 6% today and now over 12% since Thursday, representing the likely damage to the UK domestic economy. One might look back at the recent performance of the FTSE 250 pre Brexit and see more dramatic drops than those noted over the last few days. Those changes also represented the sentiments of big investors at that time and within a few weeks the index was largely back to where it started.
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NSFW
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Post by NSFW on Jun 27, 2016 14:33:08 GMT
I very much doubt we'll leave the EU. Article 50 will be put off and just not happen. Boris or whoever will be able to justify ignoring the referendum result for economic reasons and preserving unity within the UK.
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Post by captainconfident on Jun 27, 2016 14:59:59 GMT
I also doubt that article 50 will be activated, because it has to be done by the Conservative Party, and preserving the union with Scotland will deter any of them from taking responsibility for making that piece of history.
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jonah
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Post by jonah on Jun 27, 2016 15:18:45 GMT
Whatever my personal view, the outers won and article 50 will be the result. The fact that Europe is keen to start the clock is interesting. It does move the negotiations into their favour as they control any extensions. The upcoming summit could be frosty.
As for 'what does good look like' from a brexit perspective... I honestly don't know. I suspect the flavour of brexit we get will be determined by the next PM. Boris seems to want brexit light... Almost all elements the same as now. Gove is probably a little more 'out' and I suspect wouldn't fight as hard for access to the eu market. Farage, well, I don't know how to phrase that politely.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jun 27, 2016 16:01:56 GMT
I also doubt that article 50 will be activated, because it has to be done by the Conservative Party It has to be done by the government, after approval in a house of commons vote. Let's say Cameron's successor - Boris or whoever - decides not to hold that vote, and not to put Article 50 into action. There could be a vote of no confidence in the government - which, if lost, has to be followed within 14 days by a successful vote of confidence. It it isn't, then there's going to be another general election... And whoever wins that could hold that HoC vote and put Article 50 into play. Or they might not.
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Post by batchoy on Jun 27, 2016 16:27:13 GMT
I also doubt that article 50 will be activated, because it has to be done by the Conservative Party It has to be done by the government, after approval in a house of commons vote. Let's say Cameron's successor - Boris or whoever - decides not to hold that vote, and not to put Article 50 into action. There could be a vote of no confidence in the government - which, if lost, has to be followed within 14 days by a successful vote of confidence. It it isn't, then there's going to be another general election... And whoever wins that could hold that HoC vote and put Article 50 into play. Or they might not. If it isn't and there is an election then there is the possibility of large protest vote for UKIP if they play their cards right and mobilize angry leave voters.
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james
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Post by james on Jun 27, 2016 17:12:20 GMT
The fact that Europe is keen to start the clock is interesting. It does move the negotiations into their favour as they control any extensions. The upcoming summit could be frosty. It illustrates that those other EU members are interested in ignoring the "take back control" campaign principle that the leave campaign used, by trying to get the UK to become even more of a supplicant than usual under the EU system. I assume that UK negotiators won't ignore the motto of the leave campaign and agree to that, so those other EU countries might be in for a greatly prolonged period of uncertainty. We might be in for a prolonged period where the European court has to issue repeated rulings that yes the UK is still in the EU and has to be a normal part of EU decision making until it isn't. As you suggest, it would be foolish to agree to a schedule that places one party in total control with the nastiest consequences due to the timeline if they don't get what they want.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jun 27, 2016 17:12:48 GMT
If it isn't and there is an election then there is the possibility of large protest vote for UKIP if they play their cards right and mobilize angry leave voters. Frankly, at the moment I think UKIP's vote would actually fall, given how many leave voters are starting to realise they were blatantly lied to. Even Kelvin McKenzie has a piece in today's Sun expressing "Buyer's remorse", days after penning "10 reasons why you MUST vote Leave"... politicalscrapbook.net/2016/06/suns-resident-idiot-kelvin-mackenzie-now-regrets-voting-leave-after-offering-10-reasons-for-brexit/Boris is backtracking as fast as he can, and nobody's seen Gove since he was described as "looking like somebody who's come down from a trip to realise he murdered his best mate"... The only thing on Gisela Stewart's Twitter since the result is a retweet of a TV interview quote - "We put the electorate in a difficult position. We asked them to do our job for us". Even the official Leave campaign's website has been taken down, to save having embarrassing questions asked about why the content isn't being lived up to. The only member of the Leave campaign who seems to be celebrating is St Nigel - who wasn't even part of the official campaign - and who can't backtrack fast enough from that core "£350m/wk -> NHS" pledge, which IDS is in total denial about. Oh, yes, and the racists and knuckle-draggers are having a field day...
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Post by yorkshireman on Jun 27, 2016 17:29:54 GMT
Any bets on how long it takes the markets to get over their Brexit tantrum?
2 / 3 weeks?
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Jun 27, 2016 17:49:54 GMT
Any bets on how long it takes the markets to get over their Brexit tantrum? 2 / 3 weeks? Here's a proxy for that question, would you buy Barclays, Lloyds or RBS shares right now?
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jun 27, 2016 17:52:58 GMT
Any bets on how long it takes the markets to get over their Brexit tantrum? 2 / 3 weeks? Here's a proxy for that question, would you buy Barclays, Lloyds or RBS shares right now? Well, quite. Lloyds being the only one of the three in which trading hasn't been suspended today... Oh, yes. And we seem to have some of them... <rolls eyes>
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