adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jun 16, 2016 14:50:21 GMT
Nationality is just a word to describe someone who is authorised to carry the passport of a particular country, it means absolutely nothing. Correct. So we're all in agreement that there's absolutely no fundamental difference between people. We're all people, we're all the same, no matter where we were born. So there's really no point in getting so het-up about who can or can't come to live on this lump of rock. Some people are good people, no matter where they're from. Some people are a waste of oxygen, no matter where they're from. Some people have some strange ideas, no matter where they're from. You can't legislate against people holding any particular ideas, only on them taking specific actions. Do you feel that a reader may infer there is, if not for this disclaimer?
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jun 16, 2016 14:53:25 GMT
Imagine the country votes out next Thursday. Is there going to come a moment on Friday, or a month or three later when one of us thinks I wish I'd thought of that earlier? Can anyone think of that now? I think there may very well be a monumental hangover when the reality dawns that we've been sold something entirely different from what we've been promised. But, by that point, it'll be too late. The damage will be done, certainly as far as the short term and very probably the medium term go, both economically and politically. The clues are all there, in that SO MANY of the claims are very easily debunked, but people seem to be regarding facts and reality as an inconvenience.
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Post by yorkshireman on Jun 16, 2016 15:02:39 GMT
Do you feel that a reader may infer there is, if not for this disclaimer? Depends on the reader's view of the world. The mods have, rightly in some cases, closed down threads, in other cases, IMHO, I consider that they have been over zealous.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Jun 16, 2016 15:31:21 GMT
Well I've been actively not investing in Scotland, and "de-risking", for a month now. Basically from the point where I went "Brexit is unlikely to happen" to "Brexit might actually happen" I changed my position from "risk is ok" to "get rid of the edgier stuff", particularly for longer dated loans. Which is not to say that I am correct in doing this, I might well be being to risk averse, but you pays your nickel and you takes your chance......
If the vote is remain I will be back into "risk on" (and may look at equities too).
If the vote is leave I will.... watch, wait, and think.
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Post by earthbound on Jun 16, 2016 16:29:48 GMT
And so it has happened, some EU bureaucratic plonker who's name i can't be bothered to remember said That'll be Donald Tusk, former Prime Minister of Poland, and President of the European Council (the strategic body consisting of the heads of government of the 28 member countries of the EU)
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jun 16, 2016 16:31:13 GMT
In the light of the murder of Jo Cox MP today, all campaigning has been abandoned by both sides. I suggest this thread follows suit.
RIP.
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Post by earthbound on Jun 16, 2016 16:35:08 GMT
What could prove to be the end of western civilization as we know it is the EU’s failure to find a humane solution in order to control the flow of migrants into the EU Umm, you DO know that the UK already has, and has always had, 100% control over migration from everybody other than EU passport-holders, right? INCLUDING those seeking asylum. Ummm.. i wonder what controls the uk has over non eu migration, where the passport has been issued to them by a different eu country, i owuld suspect none.. portugal rings a bell. edit wow been out of uk and just read about jo cox , i think alongside orlando and french police couple, maybe a good suggestion .
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Post by captainconfident on Jun 16, 2016 23:42:17 GMT
I'm actively ditching property loans, particularly London. My calculation is that in the event of a leave vote, a new Boris government will feel obliged by promises already made to refuse free movement to EU citizens. Property prices will deflate immediately on perception of drop in demand. The signs of a run for the door are there to be seen, viz the 8 million pound London properties opportunity last week on SS.
The problem with refusing free movement is exclusion from the single market on tariff free terms,which will cause huge damage to industry in the UK. While people here might well pay 10% more for a Mercedes or BMW, the low margin Hondas Fords and Nissans made in the UK can't sustain that and these types of UK plants will close. The knock on effects in this and other industry sectors will reach deep into the smaller supply firms funded through p2p. So, property and manufacturers.
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Post by eascogo on Jun 16, 2016 23:43:29 GMT
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Post by lynnanthony on Jun 17, 2016 3:46:10 GMT
So we're all in agreement that there's absolutely no fundamental difference between people. We're all people, we're all the same, no matter where we were born. I’m not so sure. At the second we pop out of the womb we are all pretty much the same, but from that moment on we are educated or indoctrinated into whatever culture we are born into: the culture of our parents. (“Give me the child until he is seven.”) Cultures vary. Not necessarily better, not necessarily worse, but definitely different. Different views on life, different views on death, different views on family, neighbours, other cultures. Different views on tolerance. And 1001 other differences. A little example if I may. I am an engineer (small ‘e’); I fix things, hands on. I get job satisfaction from fixing things and I have a typical engineer’s curiosity about how things work. I think it is those two things that make me reasonably accomplished at what I do. One might be forgiven for thinking, if we are not that different, that any culture should be able to produce individuals who, given the right training, can be my equivalent at fixing things. But that is not my experience. I work overseas, with people from a different culture. I have worked enough years with enough individuals to be pretty sure I understand how they, the guys I work with, approach things engineering; how they think about engineering. I try to explain my job satisfaction and I am met with blank or incredulous looks. The only job satisfaction they get is in finding a way not to do the job, to get someone else to do it. If I am presented with unfamiliar equipment I treat it as a challenge; the locals are sort of scared of it and refuse to consider touching it until specifically trained on it – trained by me who has, theoretically, the same or less experience! Further. The individuals I work with, by and large, do not want to do fault diagnosis, struggle to do fault diagnosis, often can't do fault diagnosis. They do not want to think about an engineering problem. The will go out of their way not to think about it. They should be able to, they’ve been taught over many years (but not their formative years; it came too late). It is not laziness: they have been taught not to question things. This is so, that is so, it is written, you must not question it. Now, if I have come across just one significant example of people not being all the same really, why should there not be others? Differences in our views on equality and superiority for instance, that will only be overcome over several generations. Differences that can cause major problems.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jun 17, 2016 6:52:47 GMT
Ummm.. i wonder what controls the uk has over non eu migration, where the passport has been issued to them by a different eu country That would be EU migration, then.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jun 17, 2016 6:56:49 GMT
So the relevant section of the interview, from which those snippets were taken is... In context,that is a very, very different - much more considered, much more nuanced, much less alarmist - statement than the bald quote makes it sound. Unsurprisingly. And, for the benefit of the alarmists in a different direction...
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Post by oldnick on Jun 17, 2016 9:49:41 GMT
This thread is becoming more wide ranging than the titled specified, again. There is another thread on the chat board which is better suited for those who don't want to be so confined on the general matter of Brexit.
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stokeloans
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Post by stokeloans on Jun 17, 2016 9:58:03 GMT
If we vote out on Thursday the world will end on Friday. Actually,nothing will change,in the short term.Currencies fluctuate and will continue to do so.Longer term will depend on what our politicians agree to.
Everyone talks about the effect on the UK if we leave. What about the effect on the EU ? We are big players. There could be a knock on effect with other countries wanting out.
Is it that far fetched to suggest the EU could crumble without us ?
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beechside
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Post by beechside on Jun 17, 2016 10:18:47 GMT
Imagine the country votes out next Thursday. <snip> Can anyone think of that P2P impacting thing now? I don't particularly trust bankers or economists, both of whom take structuralist views of the world (by that I mean they predict certain outcomes given a set of conditions). The models they create and use are not often accurate and nor do they predict the significant outputs. If they could, there would be no crashes, just soft landings. Evidence for economists being against Brexit is plentiful: Economists on BrexitCarney on BrexitHowever, I believe that their very strong statements about the effect on the pound and the economy will be a self-fulfilling prophesy. Sterling will fall not because of an underlying weakness but because they predict it will. Exports will be more attractive but imports will be more expensive. Since we are a net importer ( 16 billion deficit in April 2016), inflation will rise. Foreign property owners are unlikely to sell immediately because of the weakness of sterling so they'll hold tight. After all, a house is still worth a house... Then again, weak sterling means that the pound is cheap and so London will be more attractive to foreign buyers and that should drive demand. We all know that many London properties are bought not to live in but to hold as investment properties. Then again with weak Rouble and Asian currencies, there are fewer buyers from Russia and AsiaMiddle East demand for London properties will continue, not least since sovereign wealth funds see property as a way out of dependance on oil. The changes in property taxation for foreign buyers may make a difference but I expect accountants and the off-shore junkies will find ways around it. Overall, foreign demand will stabilise but not disappear. Credit is likely to be scarcer, so those p2p loans that expect high street funding at the end of their period are likely to hit a brick wall. I believe we can expect more defaults. Since we are not throwing out non-nationals immediately (a two-year period has been mentioned), there will still be a property deficit for some time (for ever?). Interest rates are likely to rise, since banks will want greater compensation for what they predict will be lower demand. more defaults and more repossessions. There is also likely to be further quantitive easing, in the hope that more money will mean greater investment in industry, though there has been no evidence that the banks have used the extra money doing anything except improve their Capital Buffers, as instructed by the BoE. Brexit effet on interest rates
Banking and QE (technical paper)So, what does this mean for P2P? (I refer mainly to property loans here, since loans on jewellery, fine art, boats, domain names and other non-property items are outside my knowledge base). - Old loans should be OK, since the demand for property won't reduce in the first two years. However, interest rates will start to increase, though not by the amount alarmists are claiming. Exiting loans may be more expensive but we should see no increase in defaults in the early months.
- New loans maturing in a year may face an unfriendly environment and borrowers looking to refinance will find it harder. This will result in more defaults, though how many I don't know.
- Larger projects (new builds, large scale refurbishments - grand houses to flats, for example) are likely to be fewer. We've seen evidence of this already at Battersea Power Station
- There will be no reduction in the demand for student flats and care homes (they are CGT exempt for foreign investors) but these will become more attractive to investors and so expect your interest rates to be lower on these.
- A reduction in loans will mean we'll be scrabbling to place our money so the platforms will be able to make more money by reducing their deposit rate while maintaining or even increasing the borrowing rate.
- A rise of a couple of percent in base rate will make some of the bank offers more attractive. As others have noted, you can get 4% or more in some bank accounts already, albeit for smaller investments. Raising those to 6% with the backing of an FSCS guarantee should make people examine the balance of their portfolios.
- With weak sterling, foreign investment in UK P2P may increase but sterling is likely to improve over time so they would take a currency hit, were they to stay long term.
- My conclusion is that, overall, P2P will survive a Brexit. Greater demand for P2P and fewer projects will make it more of a niche market, especially if there are to be half-decent savings accounts with an FSCS guarantee.
Apologies for the length of this but putting it in writing has helped me clarify my own thoughts. Of course, your mileage may vary and I wouldn't claim my own predictions are other than the thoughts of a self-confessed structuralist (I used to create mathematical models for a living). I started out by saying you can't trust structuralists. . . 
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