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Post by captainconfident on Jun 18, 2016 11:54:41 GMT
Mod hat off- Brexit is not a political party - the campaign can speculate on the future but cannot offer policies, as it will not receive a mandate from the electorate in the event of a vote to leave. An end to free movement of EU citizens. A points system. We control our own borders. If we leave, that is the course promised to the victorious majority. This is handed to the government which follows as de facto policy. That is an end to single market participation by definition. The other EU countries will no longer love us enough to add that concession to the pile.
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max
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Post by max on Jun 18, 2016 12:49:57 GMT
Excuse me for being a bit harsh, but IMO most of the analyses here are missing the point. Yes, they have some internal coherence, but exact opposite scenarios have similar chances to occur following Brexit. Many in this thread have provided equally valid arguments in support of alternative scenarios. Also the BoE position (if you like to listen to those guys) on interest rates is that they can go up or down depending on which scenario prevails after Brexit. They don't dare venturing into predictions. Many "experts" expect a contraction of GDP, but how much, how long, how we will get there and out, no one can say. We don't have a meaningful distribution of probabilities over possible alternatives (known unknowns) and there are also scenarios that might not even being considered and yet they could materialise after Brexit (unknown unknowns).
Uncertainty is the only certainty following Brexit. This is very bad news for (p2p/b) investors in the UK because uncertainty has a real cost attached to it. And this cost is going to be a UK story only/mainly - like a tax on investments if you like. In the Brexit future, you will have to pay this tax if you want to invest in the UK.
As an investor, why would I want to pay a tax on my investments in UK? Well, only if returns justify it as compared to alternative investments outside the UK I could make – including Euro denominated p2p/b. But hold on, how could UK p2p/b returns look any good under a contraction of GDP scenario?
It is no mystery that UK economy relies heavily on foreign investments to balance the books -way more than other EU countries. I cannot see myself investing in UK businesses until I can have clarity on the likelihood of the economic scenarios ahead. So, here it's the start of a nasty spiral for an economic forecast...
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Post by Financial Thing on Jun 18, 2016 14:01:03 GMT
I don't think this Brexit will have much effect long term. Short term you might see FTSE volatility but the FTSE has very little zero long term impact on world markets and has always been tied to US market. Long term I don't see p2p being affected. I see p2p being affected by companies not being profitable or lenders panic exiting. Is anyone here going to withdraw from p2p if the UK Brexits? I won't as I'm in p2p long term.
Short term will possibly see currency value drop; holidays will cost more, or maybe they won't. Much like trying to predict the next housing or stock market crash, in the end, no one really knows.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2016 11:08:03 GMT
If you want to observe the odds of a brexit over the next 24 hours, check out the betfair site. I used to trade (gamble) on this site quite frequently, now I trade (gamble) on P2P  www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.118739911Right now, the markets are saying the chance of brexit is around 12%. |
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Post by ablrateandy on Jun 23, 2016 11:11:48 GMT
Interestingly though, the bookies are moved by volume of bets. More people are betting on Brexit but in much smaller size.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2016 11:29:16 GMT
Interestingly though, the bookies are moved by volume of bets. More people are betting on Brexit but in much smaller size. Even when brexit were ahead in the opinion polls, the betting markets stuck with Remain as the favourite, tempting a few to have a bet. The current odds of 8/1 on brexit seem to suggest the referendum is all but decided - will be interesting to see if the betting markets have got it right or wrong.
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SteveT
Member of DD Central
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Post by SteveT on Jun 23, 2016 11:33:40 GMT
£ continuing to strengthen against the $ so far today, although quite volatile, so the hedge funds' early exit poll steers can't yet have spooked anyone.
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jamesc
Member of DD Central
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Post by jamesc on Jun 23, 2016 11:52:46 GMT
I just bet a chunk of money at 7/1 a leave vote tonight not because I want to leave in fact I want to stay.
Rather a/ because I think its the wrong price
b/ as a hedge against any p2p losses that might result from an exit.
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Post by ablrateandy on Jun 23, 2016 12:04:24 GMT
That's a very sensible bet. The odds are a mile out, especially with weather as a factor.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2016 12:17:39 GMT
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Post by Financial Thing on Jun 23, 2016 13:15:07 GMT
As much as I'd like to see the UK leave the EU (purely for selfish stock market crash hopes) I estimate there's a 1% chance of a Brexit. The elites like their money and a Brexit would cause too much financial instability, at least short term. The elites will never let the UK leave the EU since they control the banking and political system. Tomorrow it will be business as usual and the UK will remain in the EU.
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Post by propman on Jun 23, 2016 15:16:27 GMT
I can't find the reference, but IIRC there was a summary in run up to the Scottish Independence vote that showed all similar referenda (I'm sure they may have missed some 'though) moved back towards remain at the end. Sugesting a "c"onservative bias.
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Greenwood2
Member of DD Central
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Post by Greenwood2 on Jun 24, 2016 5:23:20 GMT
Or not!
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stokeloans
Member of DD Central
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Post by stokeloans on Jun 24, 2016 5:58:27 GMT
Get in !!! We're out !!!  |
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beechside
Member of DD Central
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Post by beechside on Jun 24, 2016 6:14:11 GMT
A key moment for this fledgling industry.
It all depends on (1) what the Bank of England sites and (2) what happens to property prices.
If BoE raise interest rates, mortgages become less affordable and there will be a fall in property prices in the short term. If they lower interest rates, P2P at current interest rates becomes less attractive and borrowers will look elsewhere for finance. Liquidity in the market will be key and that depends on central bank intervention, printing money that we don't have. That hits sterling further and we'll be in the same position as some of the Asian markets but with much higher manufacturing costs.
Most people think property prices will fall, putting many property bridging loans at risk of default.
Horrible...
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