Brexit - Impact on P2P

samford71:  Thank you for your detailed reply, which I very much value.

OK, I do come from an academic background - fair enough...

I don't think we will ever see the stupidity of ERM rate hikes again.  I sincerely hope that lesson was learnt.  I do see raising interest rates as an important tool in controlling inflation - one of the key things that the Gov asks BoE to do.  Making sterling more attractive will reduce the cost of imports and, while it's a blunt tool, the market is still led by sentiment.  

The last model I built (as part of an EU funded project) was back in 2002 so I can't claim to be current.  That was all about increasing the EU's ability to compete in an Internet-led world.  Prior to that, it was systems for trading floors (mainly valuations).  I stress that I was the constructor of the model, not the authors, who were a bunch of so called specialists, though I did actuarial studies myself and was a specialist in fixed interest.  Can't claim to remember that much since I've had another career or two since then. . .

Loved your final paragraph.  It was a splendid pastiche of both sides of the argument.  It really did make me LOL - not something that often happens on these forums.

Thanks again.  Your input is informed and useful.

And there was me, thinking I was the only one that needed to involve Google Translate.

I'm not sure about that. If the brexiteers get in and clamp down hard in immigration, then:

(1) The numbers of overseas students (both EU and non-EU) will be slashed (cutting off nose to spite face as it is well documented that overseas students are a big economic plus); and

(2) Care homes will struggle even harder to find staff, especially outside the south-east.  Many of them are barely profitable now, and Council funding for care is in crisis.  I would expect a lot of care homes to go bust and it is very likely that people needing affordable care could be forced to move to the cheap corners of the country in order to get it - or to go abroad if anyone will let them in.

I actually disagree with you on number 2) we have close contacts with the care home industry (one reason I don't invest in it), and the overseas nurse/care worker recruitment business. One of the big problems care homes have had is the clamp down on OSWs from outside the EU which has meant that care homes have had to recruit from within the EU. In turn this has meant that they have not been able to recruit the people they would like based on language skills, training and general attitude to the elderly and infirm. They have also been losing the people that they would like to keep because non-EU OSWs have being issued with visas that have a limited number of renewals to prevent them gaining rights to residency so many are coming to the point that they have to leave the country. Many of the people we are in touch with in the industry are banking on Brexit allowing them to recruit the OSWs they want not the ones they are forced to have.

The Brexit camp have been promising various forms or controlled immigration where the country allows in the people its wants/needs and are most suitable for the job rather from a global pool rather than restricting companies to OSW from EU counties, which in the case of the care home industry means women from poorer EU countries.

Mod hat off-
Brexit is not a political party - the campaign can speculate on the future but cannot offer policies, as it will not receive a mandate from the electorate in the event of a vote to leave.