IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Nov 24, 2023 15:14:48 GMT
The first line of that source: "A majority, also called a simple majority or absolute majority to distinguish it from related terms, is more than half of the total." I agree that majority CAN be used in terms of the winner of an individual seat in a FPTP system (even if that is probably a mathematically incorrect usage and plurality would be better if less than 50%), but it is NEVER used in terms of a parliamentary system. We refer to a hung parliament, or no overall control, or minority government then, we absolutely do not call the largest party the winner of a majority. Well, we absolutely DO use that usage in parliamentary terms. This MP got 46% of the vote in his seat. His majority was 2,500 votes. The Conservatives got 365 seats out of 650 at the last election. This gives them a majority of 80 seats. I mean we never use "majority" UNLESS they have 50%+1 in a parliament, but we do use it (probably mathematically incorrectly) when someone wins an indivdual seat but with les than 50%. We are saying the same thing.
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Post by bracknellboy on Nov 24, 2023 16:31:09 GMT
Someone had to get the Dulux colour chart out to sort this graphic out  |
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james100
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Post by james100 on Nov 24, 2023 16:36:03 GMT
I was living in NL when Wilders came on the scene and amazed he's still kicking about...a hate pimp dressing up as "freedom". Even Farage didn't want to associate with him so there's that. And the notion of NL leaving the EU is absolutely hilarious. Rutte and others hold great responsibility for the political chaos, policy neglect, and leadership void which led to this guy floating up too IMO - it's really sad.
Anyway, this just reinforces why PR is so necessary: stabilizers to stop the larger-than-minority-but-definitely-not-a-majority extremists taking over.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Nov 24, 2023 16:38:20 GMT
I was living in NL when Wilders came on the scene and amazed he's still kicking about...a hate pimp dressing up as "freedom". Even Farage didn't want to associate with him so there's that. And the notion of NL leaving the EU is absolutely hilarious. Rutte and others hold great responsibility for the political chaos, policy neglect, and leadership void which led to this guy floating up too IMO - it's really sad. Anyway, this just reinforces why PR is so necessary: stabilizers to stop the larger-than-minority-but-definitely-not-a-majority extremists taking over. Why so? Are you saying so unlikely its funny or something else ?
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james100
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Post by james100 on Nov 24, 2023 18:17:56 GMT
I was living in NL when Wilders came on the scene and amazed he's still kicking about...a hate pimp dressing up as "freedom". Even Farage didn't want to associate with him so there's that. And the notion of NL leaving the EU is absolutely hilarious. Rutte and others hold great responsibility for the political chaos, policy neglect, and leadership void which led to this guy floating up too IMO - it's really sad. Anyway, this just reinforces why PR is so necessary: stabilizers to stop the larger-than-minority-but-definitely-not-a-majority extremists taking over. Why so? Are you saying so unlikely its funny or something else ? Economic, cultural, geographical and financial system reasons make it extremely unlikely in my opinion. His voter base was pretty specific and it reads to me as a protest vote rather than one driving a desire to debase the nation's stability long term. Apparently VVD is refusing to even discuss participating in a coalition which only leaves 27 seats between the other 2 preferred coalition partners (NSC and BBB) which will still leave him far short of house majority. In any case, there's a recent case study dispelling any rumours that leaving the EU = automatically taking back control of borders so limited fuel from that rhetoric. It will be interesting to see what happens next.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Nov 24, 2023 18:27:29 GMT
Why so? Are you saying so unlikely its funny or something else ? Economic, cultural, geographical and financial system reasons make it extremely unlikely in my opinion. His voter base was pretty specific and it reads to me as a protest vote rather than one driving a desire to debase the nation's stability long term. Apparently VVD is refusing to even discuss participating in a coalition which only leaves 27 seats between the other 2 preferred coalition partners (NSC and BBB) which will still leave him far short of house majority. In any case, there's a recent case study dispelling any rumours that leaving the EU = automatically taking back control of borders so limited fuel from that rhetoric. It will be interesting to see what happens next. So another great victory for PR?
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james100
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Post by james100 on Nov 24, 2023 18:43:58 GMT
Economic, cultural, geographical and financial system reasons make it extremely unlikely in my opinion. His voter base was pretty specific and it reads to me as a protest vote rather than one driving a desire to debase the nation's stability long term. Apparently VVD is refusing to even discuss participating in a coalition which only leaves 27 seats between the other 2 preferred coalition partners (NSC and BBB) which will still leave him far short of house majority. In any case, there's a recent case study dispelling any rumours that leaving the EU = automatically taking back control of borders so limited fuel from that rhetoric. It will be interesting to see what happens next. So another great victory for PR? Depends on your definition of 'victory'. In the past it was possible for coalition governments to be formed without the single party that got the most seats. If the GL/PdvA alliance teamed up with VVD and NSC they could probably kick Wilders to the kerb altogether. Unlikely, and I'm not even sure if this is still within the rules today but sounds fun.
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Post by bracknellboy on Nov 24, 2023 18:54:39 GMT
Economic, cultural, geographical and financial system reasons make it extremely unlikely in my opinion. His voter base was pretty specific and it reads to me as a protest vote rather than one driving a desire to debase the nation's stability long term. Apparently VVD is refusing to even discuss participating in a coalition which only leaves 27 seats between the other 2 preferred coalition partners (NSC and BBB) which will still leave him far short of house majority. In any case, there's a recent case study dispelling any rumours that leaving the EU = automatically taking back control of borders so limited fuel from that rhetoric. It will be interesting to see what happens next. So another great victory for PR? why not ? I'm guessing where you are coming from is that it is a "fail" if the party with the largest number of votes doesn't get to lead a government. But that is not logical for a PR system, and in fact the assumption that it is a fail is antithetic to the point of PR. Extreme example. You could for example have 21 parties represented. In terms of policies, one party is a clear outlier - to the left, right, up, down - compared to the others, who are all fairly closely aligned. It secures 10% of the vote. The rest of the vote is split evenly between the rest, meaning they have 4.5% of the vote. The outlier has secured a clear plurality, (or 'relative majority') of the vote. But nonetheless, the overwhelming majority of voters - 90% - have rejected its outlier position by voting for parties which are much more clearly aligned to each other and away from it. For sure, in most "PR" systems, the largest party will be given the first opportunity to form a government. But it does not have a mandate to govern based simply on being the largest, and if it can't secure the support of sufficient parties to form a government representing a majority of voters then so be it. That is the point of PR, not a failing. FWIW, as I understand it, the position of the VVD is more 'complex' than as stated. They were ousted, its a bad result, they are saying the voters have spoken and they should not be in government. But they have also said that they may well lend there voting support / cooperation to a coalition i.e. to support a minority coalition govt. Think Theresa May and the DUP type arrangement. Which is also precisely the situation the VVD themselves were in when in govt. until Wilders withdrew his party from supporting their govt. IIRC.
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Post by captainconfident on Nov 24, 2023 20:23:32 GMT
The problem for Wilders' PVV is that they are a bit far to the right of the other main parties. Similar parties, the farmer's party BBB, which got a lot of attention before the election didn't do very well, and the new anti-vax/pro conspiracy FvD only got 3 seats.
So the PVV has to engage the VVD, whose leader Yeşilgöz-Zegerius doesn't like him, and the NSC, a new party which picked up 20 seats on a 'moderate' platform. This is the only plausible government, possible I think if Wilders agrees not to be PM. This would result in a centre right government PVV-VVD-NSC (right-Liberal-Moderate) possibly with Pieter Omtzigt (NSC) as PM as he is actually the risen star of this election.
If talks to form the above coalition fail, the next round would be to try VVD-NSC-PvdA/GL (Liberal-Moderate-Social Democrat-Green). This is a plausible government but hard to get agreement as it is a four party formation. These parties are unlikely to want to face Wilders' party in opposition. Wilders is effective as an opposition protest party leader but probably less fearsome when facing the actuality of government, remembering the debacle of Pim Fortuyn's party in government.
For those who attempted sniping at the Dutch system of representation, I would like to point out that these coalition governments have produced one of the best governed, most modernised, best funded welfare countries in the world. It was a pleasure to live there for 10 years.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Nov 24, 2023 20:42:20 GMT
Economic, cultural, geographical and financial system reasons make it extremely unlikely in my opinion. His voter base was pretty specific and it reads to me as a protest vote rather than one driving a desire to debase the nation's stability long term. Apparently VVD is refusing to even discuss participating in a coalition which only leaves 27 seats between the other 2 preferred coalition partners (NSC and BBB) which will still leave him far short of house majority. In any case, there's a recent case study dispelling any rumours that leaving the EU = automatically taking back control of borders so limited fuel from that rhetoric. It will be interesting to see what happens next. So another great victory for PR? Absolutely a victory for PR. The eventual government will be a coalition that represents most of the electorate's views.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Nov 24, 2023 20:55:35 GMT
I remain a fan of PR. I'm sure CC and some others are more knowledgable than me about the period between the wars but in my mind there is something Weimar Republic-esq going on at the moment. Big rise of parties doing well on an anti-immigrant agenda right across Europe. A lot of Liberal types dismissing these fears. The Telegraph is indeed centre right but I don't think it would have dared to carry an article like this a few years ago. www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/11/23/record-mass-migration-changing-britain-conservative-party/I've always considered myself as being ok with immigration and certainly willing to treat anyone I come across the same way. I'm starting to have doubts about the former. 1.2M people arrived in the UK last year and was it 500,000 left? Its no wonder social cohesion is hanging together by a thread. There ought to be some quick wins. Just one example. When I went to Uni, I didn't take my family with me. Nor did anyone else for that matter. So why does the student visa allow family? www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/11/23/record-mass-migration-changing-britain-conservative-party/ |
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Post by captainconfident on Nov 24, 2023 20:59:13 GMT
I loved participating in Dutch elections. So many manifestos to read - there websites where you answer 20 questions and it proposes who your party should be, sometimes a surprise answer. Choice is so nuanced, I was delighted by the possibility of choosing between Green or PvdD - Party of the Animals, for those putting animals above leaves. And this time Moderate (NSC) or Pragmatic (D66). You don't know what you're missing! Amazing to see the Christian Democrats (CDA) reduced to 5 seats. Oh how the mighty have fallen. This would be how the Tories would have faired in a fair election system. Overtaken by younger fresher faces and new ideas. Edit, one of these faces is Pieter Omtzigt, potentially next PM. He was a CDA mp in the last government who uncovered a massive scandal and blew the whistle on the cover-up by his own party. He left, formed a new party on 19th August 2023 and took 20 seats, which essentially now makes him kingmaker in any coalition talks if not the next PM. He is a major new force in Dutch politics. www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/20/pieter-omtzigt-the-netherlands-outsider-whose-politics-is-firmly-in-the-centreen.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Social_ContractAn excellent analysis of what is going on and an easer read than my jabberings www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67517742 |
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Nov 24, 2023 21:03:13 GMT
So another great victory for PR? The eventual government will be a coalition that represents most of the electorate's views. But only if resulting government is stable (which it appears may not be the case). We'll have to wait and see how things pan out.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Nov 25, 2023 11:22:56 GMT
Economic, cultural, geographical and financial system reasons make it extremely unlikely in my opinion. His voter base was pretty specific and it reads to me as a protest vote rather than one driving a desire to debase the nation's stability long term. Apparently VVD is refusing to even discuss participating in a coalition which only leaves 27 seats between the other 2 preferred coalition partners (NSC and BBB) which will still leave him far short of house majority. In any case, there's a recent case study dispelling any rumours that leaving the EU = automatically taking back control of borders so limited fuel from that rhetoric. It will be interesting to see what happens next. So another great victory for PR? In that it means 76% of the electorate aren't going to have a premier they (and the parties they supported) can't stand? Well... Yes.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Nov 25, 2023 12:05:35 GMT
I've always considered myself as being ok with immigration and certainly willing to treat anyone I come across the same way. I'm starting to have doubts about the former. 1.2M people arrived in the UK last year and was it 500,000 left? Its no wonder social cohesion is hanging together by a thread. Can you explain what you mean?
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