michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Nov 25, 2023 13:01:24 GMT
I've always considered myself as being ok with immigration and certainly willing to treat anyone I come across the same way. I'm starting to have doubts about the former. 1.2M people arrived in the UK last year and was it 500,000 left? Its no wonder social cohesion is hanging together by a thread. Can you explain what you mean? Yep as soon as you retract all but calling me a troll.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Nov 25, 2023 13:43:05 GMT
Can you explain what you mean? Yep as soon as you retract all but calling me a troll. I heartily apologise for any offence you may have taken from my liking a post by another user.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Nov 25, 2023 16:49:36 GMT
Yep as soon as you retract all but calling me a troll. I heartily apologise for any offence you may have taken from my liking a post by another user. I know its partly tongue in cheek but appreciated all the same. Now you can get back to arguing with me even when you agree
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michaelc
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Say No To T.D.S.
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Post by michaelc on Nov 25, 2023 16:51:28 GMT
I've always considered myself as being ok with immigration and certainly willing to treat anyone I come across the same way. I'm starting to have doubts about the former. 1.2M people arrived in the UK last year and was it 500,000 left? Its no wonder social cohesion is hanging together by a thread. Can you explain what you mean? Not sure which bit isn't clear?
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Nov 26, 2023 11:16:04 GMT
Can you explain what you mean? Not sure which bit isn't clear? The bit about social cohesion. I can see how lots of people moving into an area with a tightknit community affects cohesion. Plenty of areas have been badly hit by that over the last decades. But I fail to see how whether they're moving from elsewhere in this country, or outside it, makes any difference at all. And I fail to see how that applies to areas with little "community" anyway, like cities and large towns.
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Post by captainconfident on Nov 26, 2023 11:46:23 GMT
Not sure which bit isn't clear? The bit about social cohesion. I can see how lots of people moving into an area with a tightknit community affects cohesion. Plenty of areas have been badly hit by that over the last decades. But I fail to see how whether they're moving from elsewhere in this country, or outside it, makes any difference at all. And I fail to see how that applies to areas with little "community" anyway, like cities and large towns. I think that's an interesting observation. Although society is more atomised now we all stopped going to church, there are still poorer parts of cities where some communities have remained, usually because they are too poor to move away, and here the term 'social cohesion' or community might be applied perhaps? Or have I been watching too many 1960s films?
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Nov 26, 2023 12:17:36 GMT
The bit about social cohesion. I can see how lots of people moving into an area with a tightknit community affects cohesion. Plenty of areas have been badly hit by that over the last decades. But I fail to see how whether they're moving from elsewhere in this country, or outside it, makes any difference at all. And I fail to see how that applies to areas with little "community" anyway, like cities and large towns. I think that's an interesting observation. Although society is more atomised now we all stopped going to church, there are still poorer parts of cities where some communities have remained, usually because they are too poor to move away, and here the term 'social cohesion' or community might be applied perhaps? Or have I been watching too many 1960s films? "Poor parts" of cities are often dispersed by gentrification - with the residents priced out to suburbia and the commuter belt. Those remaining are often deeply unpleasant social-failure dumping grounds with high crime rates. Take London. There haven't been enclaves of cheeky but grubby cockney urchins playing in the street for decades... But there are Thamesmeads. I lived in Slough in the mid 90s. I remember there were predominately Asian poor areas (Chalvey), and there were predominately "local" poor areas (Britwell). Nobody was even remotely surprised at where my housemate's nicked car ended up.
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Post by captainconfident on Nov 26, 2023 12:42:52 GMT
I think that's an interesting observation. Although society is more atomised now we all stopped going to church, there are still poorer parts of cities where some communities have remained, usually because they are too poor to move away, and here the term 'social cohesion' or community might be applied perhaps? Or have I been watching too many 1960s films? "Poor parts" of cities are often dispersed by gentrification - with the residents priced out to suburbia and the commuter belt. Those remaining are often deeply unpleasant social-failure dumping grounds with high crime rates. Take London. There haven't been enclaves of cheeky but grubby cockney urchins playing in the street for decades... But there are Thamesmeads. I lived in Slough in the mid 90s. I remember there were predominately Asian poor areas (Chalvey), and there were predominately "local" poor areas (Britwell). Nobody was even remotely surprised at where my housemate's nicked car ended up. Those remaining are often deeply unpleasant social-failure dumping grounds with high crime rates.But can't these areas also be the ones with some kind of "social cohesion"? Could you say that Britwell had a social cohesion that was in some way a positive thing, and that would have been threatened by influx of 'foreign' people, whether white gentrifiers or more recent immigrants?
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Nov 26, 2023 15:26:26 GMT
"Poor parts" of cities are often dispersed by gentrification - with the residents priced out to suburbia and the commuter belt. Those remaining are often deeply unpleasant social-failure dumping grounds with high crime rates. Take London. There haven't been enclaves of cheeky but grubby cockney urchins playing in the street for decades... But there are Thamesmeads. I lived in Slough in the mid 90s. I remember there were predominately Asian poor areas (Chalvey), and there were predominately "local" poor areas (Britwell). Nobody was even remotely surprised at where my housemate's nicked car ended up. Those remaining are often deeply unpleasant social-failure dumping grounds with high crime rates.But can't these areas also be the ones with some kind of "social cohesion"? Could you say that Britwell had a social cohesion that was in some way a positive thing, and that would have been threatened by influx of 'foreign' people, whether white gentrifiers or more recent immigrants? Not IM(L)E, no.
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Post by captainconfident on Nov 26, 2023 16:37:15 GMT
Those remaining are often deeply unpleasant social-failure dumping grounds with high crime rates.But can't these areas also be the ones with some kind of "social cohesion"? Could you say that Britwell had a social cohesion that was in some way a positive thing, and that would have been threatened by influx of 'foreign' people, whether white gentrifiers or more recent immigrants? Not IM(L)E, no. In which case 'immigrants damage social cohesion' is a probably a non-argument. But in a country with heavily damaged by underfunding social, medical services, additional competition for such resources will bring resentment, as will competition for scarce housing. These are all failures of government, or a positive bonus for intentionally underfunding public services if you are a politician for a plan to take over an party with an anti-immigrant platform..
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Nov 26, 2023 16:40:57 GMT
...or a positive bonus for intentionally underfunding public services if you are a politician for a plan to take over an party with an anti-immigrant platform.. Heaven forfend we should find ourselves with any such thing running this country.
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Post by captainconfident on Nov 26, 2023 19:58:26 GMT
...or a positive bonus for intentionally underfunding public services if you are a politician for a plan to take over an party with an anti-immigrant platform.. Heaven forfend we should find ourselves with any such thing running this country. Interestingly, in a country where public services are well funded and the housing shortage is not so dire (NL), the votes of the 24% of disgruntled are noticed worldwide. Although mainly noticed in FPTP countries who expect a 'winner' in elections, whereas the eventual reality of government will result in a hybrid beast. But this party will be almost surely be in it and this view expressed, albeit nuanced by the other coalition parties. In the case of similar immigrant resentment coming to the fore in the UK, rather than represent those views in the eventual government, the opposite is likely to happen. If Reform UK take 24%, or even 14%, they are likely to get no seats. But for the other party which to some extent reflects these views, the effect of FPTP is likely to be dire. If Reform do well, they are likely to be taking a sizeable number of votes from the Tories. In the situation this party is already in, that narrows again the number of seats they might win and they could conceivably fail even to return as HM's Official Opposition. So in terms of "the advantages of PR", you can see that it reflects in a reasonable way "the will of the people", while under FPTP increased opposition to immigration split across two parties, is likely diminish representation of those voters as expressed in parliament to the rump remains of a single party. Edit: The Observer/Guardian catches up and realises that a 'win' is not a win in NL. www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/the-observer-view-on-geert-wilders-win-far-right-victory-is-a-warning-to-the-rest-of-europe/ar-AA1kx92f?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=e283fa9db3a74227ab9154e706f22ab4&ei=8
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Nov 26, 2023 21:38:01 GMT
If Reform UK take 24%, or even 14%, they are likely to get no seats. Unlikely. 2019 - LD, 11.6%, 12 seats. Largest 0 seat party - 2.01% 2017 - LD, 7.4%, 8 seats. Largest 0 seat party - 1.8% 2015 - LD, 7.9%, 8 seats. Largest 0 seat party - 0.2% 2010 - LD, 23%, 57 seats. Largest 0 seat party - 3.1%
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Post by captainconfident on Nov 26, 2023 22:03:13 GMT
If Reform UK take 24%, or even 14%, they are likely to get no seats. Unlikely. 2019 - LD, 11.6%, 12 seats. Largest 0 seat party - 2.01% 2017 - LD, 7.4%, 8 seats. Largest 0 seat party - 1.8% 2015 - LD, 7.9%, 8 seats. Largest 0 seat party - 0.2% 2010 - LD, 23%, 57 seats. Largest 0 seat party - 3.1% The LD had held those seats over and over again since the Liberal Party's heyday. A new party has no particular base in any one constituency, and can come second in all of them and get no seats. Because the choice between Conservative and Reform is different flavours of the same platform, they split the vote in every constituency in which both stand. Based on this, Reform can take down the Tory candidate and get 25% in every constituency but fail to win any of them. 2019 election:- the Brexit Party failed to win any seats in the general election.[7] Among its results the best were in Barnsley Central, where Victoria Felton came second with 30.4% of the vote;[8] Hartlepool, where party chairman Richard Tice came third with 25.8% of the vote;[9] and Hull West and Hessle, where businesswoman and media personality Michelle Dewberry came third with 18% of the vote.[10]
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Nov 26, 2023 22:10:16 GMT
Unlikely. 2019 - LD, 11.6%, 12 seats. Largest 0 seat party - 2.01% 2017 - LD, 7.4%, 8 seats. Largest 0 seat party - 1.8% 2015 - LD, 7.9%, 8 seats. Largest 0 seat party - 0.2% 2010 - LD, 23%, 57 seats. Largest 0 seat party - 3.1% The LD had held those seats over and over again since the Liberal Party's heyday. A new party has no particular base in any one constituency, and can come second in all of them and get no seats. Because the choice between Conservative and Reform is different flavours of the same platform, they split the vote in every constituency in which both stand. Based on this, Reform can easily take 25% in every constituency but fail to win any of them. Every party has strong areas and weak areas, regionally. To get to quarter of the national vote without a single win? Nah. Quarter of the seats from quarter of the vote? Not even close. 2010 - LD 23% of vote, 8.7% of seats. 2019 - LD 11.6% of votes, 1.8% of seats. But a lot more than zero. Looking back a few UK elections, 2010 is by far and away the highest zero-seat vote share. Mostly, it's below 1%...
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